Jns2183

Snowfall seasons are different. They go from July 1st to June 30th Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Climate 1990-2020 Monthly QPF Dec 3.51" Jan. 3.06" Feb. 2.60" Mar. 3.62" Monthly snow Dec 4.6" Jan. 8.9" Feb. 8.8" Mar. 5.6" Monthly snow % of QPF assuming 10-1 Dec 13.1% Jan. 29.1% Feb. 33.8% Mar. 15.5% Monthly # of days with QPF >= 0.01" Dec 10 Jan. 11 Feb. 10 Mar. 11 Monthly # of days with snow>= 0.01" Dec 3 Jan. 5 Feb. 5 Mar. 3 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Avg snowfall of all years with snow greater than mean 1990-2020 11 winters above mean Avg 50.12 1980-2010 11 winters above mean Avg 50.8" 1970-2000 12 winters above mean Avg 51.3 From 1970-2020 we've had 12 winters with snowfall between 30"-40" and 11 winters greater than 40". 7 of those winters were above 50". I always used 30" as a rough carve-out between a good and not so good winter. That's a 51 year period above and we had 23 above 30". Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Edit

2017-2018 38" 2018-2019 41" 2019-2020 5.1" 2020-2021 36" 2021-2022 16.4" 2022-2023 5.9" Mean 23.73" Snowfall climo 1970-2000 Mean 32.8" Median 27.8 75th percentile 42.7" 25th percentile 19.6" 1980-2010 Mean 30.6" Median 24.9" 75th percentile 41.2" 25th percentile 16.75" 1990-2020 mean 29.3" median 22.9" 75th percentile 40" 25th percentile 14.75" From 1990-2020 # of years with snowfall within bin 70" 2 60" 0 50" 2 40" 3 30" 4 20" 9 10" 9 So basically in last 6 years we have had 1 year at 75th percentile, 2 years in the 60th percentile, 1 year at 25th percentile, and 2 years at basically the 1st percentile. Anyways, it's not the worst 6 year period on record anyways. Some similar periods 1928/29 to 1933/34 mean snowfall was 21.4" 1986/87 to 1991/92 mean was 24.3" And who can forget the worst 6 years ever, 1996/97 to 2002/3 with mean of 19.3". Those 6 years had a max of 28", and 4 winters in 20" range, 2 winters at 10". That period was bookended by the greatest winter ever , 1996 with 77.6, and the 2002/3 winter with 57.7". The last 6 years have been bad, but we've had similar in the late 80s to early 90s and worse, both in the distant past (late 1920's to early 1930's) as well as late 90's till 2002. The massive difference between mean and median highlights our feast and famine past and present. From 1990 to 2020 only 35% of years were "above average" for snowfall. So we can expect 6-7 winters per decade to be below average while 3-4 to be above. Now look at last 6 years. 3 years above average, 3 years below. It's just been our below years were pure famine Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

At least it has the qpf down pretty well that far out. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

A mental model I have is that it that seasonally we usually have one indice thats more "sticky" in both direction and amplitude. Further, if you look into how each one is calculated you quickly realize some are much more surface based rather than atmosphere based and that I should of paid more attention in those advanced diff equations, linear algebra, and adv statistics courses to grasp what the hell the equations are doing to the raw data to produce the final value Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's amazing looking at the local variance in rainfall in close weather stations. Within 3 miles of my house there are multiple groupings of ones reaporting 1.75" all the way to 3.1". Looking at groupings of 3+ stations all within 1 mile of each other seems to produce 10%-15% variation usually but down in New Cumberland/lower Allan area there are multiple ones with a 25% variations within a mile. To put this in snow terms it's like if capital city airport got 10", 4 blocks from the airport getting 7.5", camp hill getting 5.5", while Harrisburg airport receiving 12". Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I distinctly remember a respected poster from the Mid-Atlantic region doing a deep dive for dca snowfall for like 30years and pulled in I think at least seasonal average NAO/ENSO values if not monthly for a good portion of his study period to look at correlations. I wish I could find his post because I think he left links to his numerical data/calculations and writeup which was quite good. The thing that always stuck with me about trying to posit correlations with snow with indice values is that some are much more stable on daily, weekly, monthly readings then others (i.e ENSO vs MJO). Most of these indices were invented in the 1970s or later, with limited ability to use distant pass observations to calculate any values outside a best guess for a yearly or seasonal value. The estimates can vary wildly and older studies are super hard to get their data, hell even newer ones can be a bitch to get it coming from an outside academia amateur hobbyist position. Anyways, I distinctly remember how little seasonal and even monthly nao readings statistically impacted snowfall at DCA. I think maybe if one came up with a large multivariate dynamic system that looked at daily readings of all teleconnections to calculate parameters akin to distance, velocity, acceleration, force, momentum for each indice. While taking account for all the variables effect on each other on different time scales to adjust for inherent stability of each indice. Knowing the daily MJO phase is great, but how deep is it in the phase, how fast (absolute & net) in all plot dimensions is it traveling, same with any acceleration over different time periods, as well as distance. Now how does that daily pattern effect NAO (if at all) on different delayed time scales. If you think of a 7 days or 10 days (I e) of MJO readings as a unique song, then with calculated parameters each day as notes, with each parameters calculated parameters daily (as each notes flavors) over time then you slowly built up groupings via graph theory that essentially group all those songs into genres that have their own unique effects on the other indices depending on time scales. A large regional location like northeast, Midwest, ect maybe able to equate their exposure to genres taking into account order and time effects to a slight moderate correlation with regionwide seasonal snowfall. But even on a statewide level it comes down to randomness with a larger structural environment far more than any of us want to admit Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What are you doing way up there? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It will just be starting then, but take a look way up in the thread and you'll see a nice 972 low on one model. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Haha, Maybe worded horribly, but it is logically consistent Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Haha, it is, but even with that predictor it was pretty weak, just several times more likely than periods when it wasn't. God only knows how the hell to communicate that to the masses outside of some catchy jingle Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I think before when I looked at December snowfalls >=4" one of the single biggest predictive indicator was it fell within a 3+ day streak of 5+ below normal temps Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I took it as no periods beyond 1-2 days of departure from normal greater than 5+ degrees below normal Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I see on the NWS wind chill calculator they have watts per metered square. I'm familiar with it from solar power, but how is it related to wind chill? It seems to go down as temp increases but wind stays steady. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

45 with winds guesting to 22 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If it won't snow we really could use 4"-6" of rain Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Might be an issue with your ports on your router Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Well all I'm saying is that if Ohtani 2 million a year, 68 million deferred for all 10 years stands, than baseball is dead and I support throwing at his head. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Next Monday is an a whole decade in model real time. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How far away day wise is this? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I fly out of there new years eve Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Saw one observation of light snow/rain so probably. Only got 1.16" when yesterday they were calling for 2.23' Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What did KMDT record? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk