Jns2183

Any snow up there Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Anyone have an update on that Lancaster radar site? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Isn't Flagstaff above there yearly snow average already? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I still think this snow drought all ends with a boom.....but in April because a cold snowy April with no spring temperatures and screwing up all gardens and lawns would truly piss off the most people. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I fly back from Cancun on the 8th into Philly Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Which means.....? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Ohio State offense the first half just made Penn States offense performance against them look like fine art. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I can't wait for us to have snow in an April that it won't crack 60 in the whole month. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This has been a tough tough year for NWS QPF forcast hasn't it? It definitely introduces much much variability into any future snow forecast, good or bad. I feel like the accuracy currently has taken a 20-30 year old retreat in reliability. I'll be on the Mexican coast from 12/31 to 1/8 so something popping from no where would definitely fit. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

NWS CTP was off 1" or 66% lower than predicted 24 hours ago. This isn't the first time this year that this has been so. Beyond a vague sense of the weather 3 days from now how in god name are people living and dieing on models 14 days away? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Thank you. I have such fond memories of that 2016 blizzard and lead up to it because of the great, unique personalities in here. You had some hilarious all time posts during that storm and lead up. I miss all that. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It was nice when this place was just a little backwater with 20 good posters Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

They actually shut it down permanently? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I thought I should probably drink less this new year. Now....maybe the answer is more Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How the hell do you get some global conspiracy out of something I did as a weekend project because I found something interesting. I don't get the logic here. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What the hell are you talking about? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm just happy for many years in same location with a reasonable component record keeper and equipment. That's better than 95% out there. The other day I highlighted the insane rain differences between stations in a 5mile radius. Eventually I went back to what I could that had records for 5+ years and with some differences evened out where some they became greater. The ones that stood out I looked at other closer stations to try to verify some and kept average reading if they were within a mile. It wasnt super scientific but I definitely saw some microclimate variations that were greater than I thought. It definitely changed my priors on how variable and persistent they can be. I wish I could find some better research papers regarding them Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This also bothers me for your inherent faith in first order climate stations. I want to leave this here for you to read about the history of the Harrisburg station, but needless to say I would take any and all readings before 1941 as only reliable within an error range of probably 5-10x the acceptable range today if not more. Especially in the 1920s, since they decided for decades to take readings on top of buildings and construction from buildings around it had out sized effect on rain and wind readings. As well as it being on top of a building. At some point data was taken from two locations without it being always clear. But from its inception in 1888 till it's move to capital city airport in 1939 all reading were taken from atop buildings in various parts of Harrisburg. From 1939-1981 all readings were taken at what is now capital city airport. A couple years ago I did a deep dive regarding the persistent differences in rain, snow, temperature between capital city and KMDT, which shocked me at first due to them being so close by straight line distant. But you have far different microclimates and even far different extreme local effects from the positioning of the weather instruments. To say that Harrisburg weather data is superior just because it is a first order climate site after knowing it's history is laughable. I assume cheaters readings have been taken in a rural area for a long time consistently. As long as the record keepers were diligent in there record keeping and instrument calibration they are a valid and important climate data point. After actually investigating Harrisburg climate data and locations I feel there is no reliable way to properly compare any specific data from before 1941 to any data after. In general you can take a anything with an error of at least 25% +/- , and weather it rained, snowed, was sunny or cloudy. But specific amounts are a fools errand. How can you compare weather stations on top of buildings to one on the river in a sea of black asphalt with lots of planes aroundAt least after capital city has continued to keep data after a many year hiatus so that some sort of comparison to KMDT can be calibrated. Read for yourself https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/ctp/ClimateStationHistory/Harrisburg%2520LCD%2520Site%2520History.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj95JLmurCDAxVGfzABHULLClkQFnoECB0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3o9ZqjV8uN7wryJgySUuZ2 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm having an enjoyable time watching the spawn of Penn state play a messy game in crap weather while enjoying a fire and double IPA Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Is the rain heavy Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

But the Philly area got pasted from big storms during that period Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Here's Harrisburg Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

New rainfall map from 630pm forward Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The 1960s averaged 8 storms of 3" plus per year for the decade, but never saw a storm with more than 18" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

That one hit wonder takes the cake for me. Us laughing at the nam a few days prior for it's insanity only to be correct. The SREFS snowfall curve going exponential in the 36 hours beforehand which supported the NAM fantasy amounts. The local weather stations being off 16"-30" a day before. And mostly that route 81 deathband that setup stationary for 6-10 hours. I doubt I will have another storm like it in my life. To top it off it was the only snow of the season. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk