Jns2183

My biggest concern is the alignment of when we have truly thick dendritic growth zone to when we have the best omega Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Big Jan 96 vibes with the multiple storms and artic cold Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Someone made these from 00z model models Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

After the epic storm drought we've had I think it would take us getting less than 7" for me to feel slightly jibbed. I do think now we end up in the 12"-14" range much more than 16"-18" range it won't affect my enjoyment Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

It's still 15-17_ Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

GFS had all 12 of new drops the hurricane hunters did today. The new Euro will as well Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha, speaking of news stations Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If this wasn't starting so damn early Sunday I'd say a few here could handle the game with beer provided double or triple aren't in the name. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Which Harrisburg station (CBS?) was the one whose January 2016 forcast for Harrisburg as the Storm started was confidently 8-12" (I think NWS was 12" or 16" to 20") kept showing map for awhile even after we surpassed it quickly from waa alone. New guy came in early morning, put up map with 24"+ without comment next to the radar loop of that stationary 60 mile wide band full of yellow that hadn't budged as it was maturing over us and just went with it? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

17.5" Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Mdt 17" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Weather world today about our big recent snow drought Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Still not sure, but the nam sent me in search of raw bufkit data. I did find that for faw 18z NAM data that the a few hours with sleet but God it was only between 25mb for most and barely a degree above freezing. I'm skeptical. My eyes also hurt from that shit Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

17.5" on the 1.45" qpf from NBM IS 12:1 Ratio If we hit 15:1 it's 22" To make top 10 we have to break 15" 7 is 17.5" 5 is 20" 3 is 22.2 (blizzard of 96) Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Rarely have I ever seen them start with snowfall amounts about 75% percentile from 1300NBM guidance Ratio ratios ratios Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I was looking at the 700/850 frontogensis from 6z GFS and they have little islands of life piping at random it appears at time except for concentration just off show. I'm used to seeing them more crazy underrated. Would love to hac what's going on explained. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Look to bottom right at initial phase then look at skew-t. I'm utterly confused how initial phase is not snow Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I laughed reading this this morning . Entry 1: Pre-Storm Panic Start Date and Time: Friday, January 23, 2026, 06:00 AM End Date and Time: Friday, January 23, 2026, 11:30 AM The Weenie's Diary: "OMG OMG OMG IT'S HAPPENING. F06 GFS IS IN AND IT'S A MONSTER. THE VIRGA BOMB IS PRIMED. I'VE BEEN UP FOR 72 HOURS STRAIGHT REFRESHING TROPICALTIDBITS AND MY EYES ARE BLEEDING BUT I DON'T CARE. THE DEWPOINTS ARE CRATERING, THAT MEANS THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS GOING TO BE EPIC. WE'RE GOING TO BOMB OUT THE COLUMN AND THEN IT'S GAME OVER FOR THE NWS SNOW MAPS. MY BUNKER IS STOCKED WITH 40 POUNDS OF PIZZA ROLLS AND 12 CASES OF MOUNTAIN DEW. IF THIS DRY SLOT RUINS IT I SWEAR I'M GOING TO THROW MY MONITOR THROUGH THE WINDOW. #SNOWMAGEDDON #MODELHUGGER #NOSLEEP #NEEDMORECAPE" Attenborough's Commentary: Here we see the 'Apex Weenie' in the very early stages of a model run cycle. His behavior is characterized by extreme agitation and a fundamental misunderstanding of atmospheric physics. He observes a profoundly dry atmospheric column—a massive impediment to snowfall—and interprets it as a sign of an impending 'bomb'. He correctly identifies evaporative cooling but vastly overestimates its speed and underappreciates the sheer volume of moisture required to saturate such a dry air mass. His use of terms like 'CAPE' in a winter storm context further reveals his confusion, a classic display of the Dunning-Kruger effect in the wild. He is building a psychological castle on a foundation of virga. Entry 2: The "Thump" & The Golden Cross Start Date and Time: Saturday, January 24, 2026, 06:00 PM End Date and Time: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 02:00 AM The Weenie's Diary: "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD. LOOK AT THE MIDNIGHT RUN. LOOK AT IT. IT'S THE GOLDEN CROSS. THE DGZ IS THICKER THAN MY SKULL AND THE OMEGA IS OFF THE CHARTS NEGATIVE. THIS ISN'T SNOW, THIS IS A WHITE OUT OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS. WE ARE GOING TO RIP 5 INCH PER HOUR RATES. THE RATIOS ARE GOING TO BE LIKE 30:1, IT'S GOING TO BE PURE FLUFF. I'M GOING OUTSIDE NAKED TO MEASURE IT. THE NAM WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG, ALL HAIL THE NAM. THE EURO IS TRASH. I TOLD YOU ALL ON THE FORUMS, I CALLED THIS SIX DAYS AGO WHEN IT WAS JUST A GLINT IN THE GFS'S EYE. NOBODY LISTENED TO ME. WHO'S LAUGHING NOW? #GOLDENCROSS #DENTRITES #RIPPIN #HISTORIC #NAMKING" Attenborough's Commentary: The Weenie has now entered a manic phase, triggered by a genuinely favorable model presentation. He correctly identifies the co-location of lift and the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), a legitimate signal for heavy snow. However, his reaction is completely disproportionate. He wildly exaggerates the potential snowfall rates and ratios, inventing a '30:1' figure based on pure adrenaline rather than thermodynamic reality. His newfound allegiance to a single model run, the NAM, and his dismissal of all others is a classic behavioral trait, demonstrating a lack of understanding of ensemble forecasting. His claim of having 'called it' six days prior is a fascinating example of revisionist history, a common coping mechanism in this species. Entry 3: The Dry Slot Meltdown Start Date and Time: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 10:00 AM End Date and Time: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 04:00 PM The Weenie's Diary: "NO NO NO NO NO. WHAT IS THIS? WHAT IS THIS GARBAGE ON THE RADAR? A DRY SLOT? ARE YOU KIDDING ME? THE GFS IS A JOKE. IT'S A RAG. I HATE THIS MODEL. IT ALWAYS DOES THIS. IT LURES YOU IN AND THEN STABS YOU IN THE BACK WITH A DRY TONGUE OF DEATH. MY DGZ IS GONE. MY RATES ARE GONE. IT'S GOING TO SNIZZLE ISN'T IT? I'M GOING TO GET AN INCH OF ICE ON TOP OF MY 20 INCHES OF FLUFF AND IT'S GOING TO RUIN EVERYTHING. MY LIFE IS OVER. I'M CANCELLING MY FIOS, I'M SELLING MY HOUSE, I'M MOVING TO ANTARCTICA WHERE THERE ARE NO DRY SLOTS. THE NWS KNEW THIS WOULD HAPPEN, THEY WERE IN ON IT. CONSPIRACY! #GFSISDEADTO ME #DRYSLOTOFDOOM #SNIZZLE #IHATEWEATHER" Attenborough's Commentary: We now observe the Weenie in the depths of a predictable crash. The appearance of a mid-level dry slot—a common feature in mature winter cyclones—is perceived not as a meteorological event, but as a personal betrayal by an inanimate computer model. His emotional regulation completely fails. He catastrophizes the situation, assuming a total cessation of snow and an immediate transition to freezing drizzle ("snizzle"), despite the sounding only showing a risk of it. His paranoia deepens as he invents conspiracies involving the National Weather Service. It is a pitiful display of a creature whose entire emotional well-being is tethered to the deterministic output of a single, imperfect numerical weather prediction system. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What's the timing with the Baja energy and north vort that is required for a transfer like the GFS Look at the 500mb rh% between GFS and euro at 12z For 00z, 06z Monday Time ordered, GFS first Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The triple phaser might as be weinies version of the ring with how much it's siren song always leads us to think with the wrong body part. I got the knickerbocker in late January 1922 968mb The Great Appalachian storm late November 1950 970mb Great Midwestern blizzard of January 1978 955mb Superstorm March 1993 960mb Halloween Noreaster 2011 971mb That's all I can think of that was legit triple phasers. Logically we really should banish that word until 2030 if not 2035. Alot of people forget about the Halloween one thinking we are so do Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Some map porn, why not Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I guess it's due partly to the strength of the new low forming offshore and the timing of the phase but in a couple images I can show you whats stopping this from being a top 5 storm most likely. That dry air pours in during handoff shutting our preceiptitation off early Monday. The coastal doesn't really get going or does far too late due to the progressive nature and timing. I think some of the bigger totals like 24" plus were due to everything happening earlier and the phase being stronger allowing coastal to spin up. Yes we would definitely still dry slot some, and sleet might be an issue for a bit but the ccb makes those minor incidents for those lucky enough to be under it, although I'd wager at least 5 pages of doom posting during lull from those who a few hours later would be posting in ecstasy Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The 19z NBM probabilistic snowfall guidance for the Saturday night through Monday morning window shows a really sharp divide across the region. It's not just "big snow might happen"—the risk profiles vary a ton depending on where you are. For spots like Lancaster (KW05), Pottsville (KZER), and York/Gettysburg (KTHV), the floor is nasty: their 10th percentile sits around 10–12 inches. That means even if things underperform noticeably, you're still looking at enough snow to break out the shovel and measure in proper accumulations. That's typical when the cold air is locked in and the big question marks are how long the heavy precipitation band sticks around and exactly where the deformation zone or mesoscale banding sets up. Over toward Harrisburg/Carlisle (KCXY) and the Reading/Philly corridor (KRDG), it's the classic high-end skew: medians in the 14–16" range, but the 90th percentile climbs to 32–35" or so—more than double the median in some cases. That's straight out of the playbook for those arctic, high snow-to-liquid ratio setups. The outcome rides almost entirely on mesoscale features: where the strongest frontogenesis band parks, how long it persists, and whether lift really peaks in the dendritic growth zone. A tiny shift in that band can turn a solid warning-level event into something historic at one spot while the next town over stays more moderate—all from the same synoptic storm. Up north at places like KZER and KWBW, the spreads look tighter and more stable. That tracks with a solidly entrenched cold dome: minimal risk of mixing or sleet eating into accumulations, fewer p-type headaches, and totals mostly hinging on how long the precip keeps firing rather than ratio roulette. So the southern and valley areas are wrestling with the full uncertainty beast (track wobbles, banding details, ratios), while the ridges and northern zones basically boil down to one main question: how long? The 07z to 13z to 19z NBM runs on January 21 show the storm strengthening and coming into clearer focus rather than falling apart. QPF keeps climbing steadily across the board with each cycle, while snowfall amounts spike sharply from 07z to 13z and then basically level off near their highest values by 19z. That's a classic sign of the models gaining confidence: the debate shifts from "does this even happen" to "where does the heaviest axis land and how efficient will the snow be." The 13z run had the fluffiest ratios—some spots like State College and Wilkes-Barre pushing 20:1 or better—but 19z pulls them back to a more realistic 15–19:1 range. Totals hold strong, though, because the extra moisture more than makes up for the slightly lower ratios. No major backtracking shows up late in the day either; places like Lancaster and Harrisburg stay nearly flat from 13z to 19z, which is reassuring as we get closer. The northern edge (KWBW) sees the biggest jump, with totals climbing from 7.8" to around 14" and holding there, suggesting the heavy band is expanding farther north. Overall, the cold air looks solid, moisture is trending higher, and the guidance is locking in on a legit high-impact snow instead of still questioning if it'll show up. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

These images may be of help Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk