Jns2183

Maybe the good forcasters were just on extended Christmas vacation and the a-team is all back in the office today. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

At this point I'd be afraid to go over 5" for NYC Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If anything I would bet the over on freezing rain, ice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

They went on a rant for the ages when they came to gribs their torch was not going to happen Friday. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I wish the storm was delayed 12 hours so the Pinstripe bowl would become legendary Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm going into work 2 hours early just so I can be done before 3 and get home. I have no doubt tomorrow night the roads will be full of the exact people that you don't want to meet. The ones that thing because they have an SUV that ice doesn't effect them, as they try to text and change Spotify while driving making them into lethal weapons in their tanks. They then will post to social media how it's the weather mans fault they wrecked. Last year I saw a lady complaining that they need to shut down all the roads so that there is no social pressure to go out, and in the comments it came out she was playing a game while driving as well as attempting to do makeup and that was the reason for the wreck moreso than the 2" of snow. Her response: "blocked!" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The one thing is with a sleet base it's much easier to freeze on contact Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

4 to 10pm is mostly after sun set Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Which models? The NAM has been the only one with funky high run to run variability. The Euro, GFS, HRRR have been steady as a rock with 0.30-0.50". Further a drier solution causes even more issues more likely due to a higher probability of it falling as freezing rain, at a rate that has maximum accretion unfortunately enough people are going to convince themselves it's not a big deal and end up with a totaled car, injuries, and putting unexcusable strain and risk on first responders. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Latest prediction is for about 0.3-0.5" of sleet and 0.15 of freezing rain for Harrisburg Cold front has past, skies have cleared and a breezy north wind is pushing cold air in Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Oh boy oh boy. Look.at that jet coming down from deep artic. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's why we have ensembles. The normal run is just one member in a mix of like 50. You ever see a printout of all the members and how wildly different they are? All that difference is due to miniscule changes at the start in each if the results. Weather is the ultimate complex stochastic, non-deterministic system. Even though it is based on deterministic physical laws. One would need to know the position and momentum of all molecules that make up the earth and it's atmosphere at the starting condition in order to attain perfect models. One reason models go from blizzard to flurries is it's a whole lot harder to have things happen in the precise order and precise timing but the answer to your question is not to ever relay on a single model run of a single model. Blended forecasts based on multiple models and model runs are the rule for a reason. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Advisory up forum wide URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service State College PA215 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-261700-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T1200Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.251226T1700Z-251227T1200Z/Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-Including the cities of Lebanon, Coudersport, Danville, Berwick,Williamsport, Lewistown, Sunbury, Chambersburg, Huntingdon,Altoona, Renovo, State College, Lewisburg, Newport, Mifflintown,Lock Haven, Mount Union, Mansfield, Pottsville, Selinsgrove,Gettysburg, Shamokin, Wellsboro, Laporte, Carlisle, Lancaster,York, Philipsburg, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Bedford, Harrisburg,Emporium, McConnellsburg, and Trout Run215 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch.* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.* WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest roadconditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained bycalling 5 1 1.&&$$For more information from the National Weather Service visitweather.gov/StateCollegeMartin/Lambert/Tyburski Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Also @WmsptWx I hope you didn't take any of that as negativity directed towards you. I thought you were talking about an on air meteorologist in one part and I was utterly confused by it. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

One thing I'm very interested in is the perceived utter failure of mid range models by a cadre of professional forecasters. I know mag mentioned known struggles in winter when switching to -NAO, but it appears this ongoing failure is way on top of normal struggles. I have not checked verification scores. The other hersay is that the AI models have done a significantly better job in mid range the past couple months. If anyone knows a site for verification scores of those it would be awesome! From my basic understanding the AI models run on basically a similar algorithm to guessing the next pixel in a image vs the normal models extreme physics modeling. Finding out when and we're each one excels seems like the obvious move. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I only ever saw forecast with highs 30-35 for Tuesday/Wednesday. Where forecast highs lower than that before? One of the reasons I found Friday storm intriguing was NWS having cut there forecast high Friday by 25 or so degrees. A forecast high that did have basically full model support for days before having the rug pulled out and one they were parroting a bit on social media the end of last week and last weekend. I saw some models lower for this upcoming Tuesday, I don't think it was full consus. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

After our areas first chance at snow this year I observed just how far the areas winter weather driving skills have plummeted after a few meager winters. They weren't great before, but they are bordering on Atlanta drivers during a snowstorm bad now. Throw in Friday being a big holiday driving day and I fear any downplaying of this is going to lead to bad bad outcomes especially with the uncertainty of sleet or freezing rain. Sleet is relatively easy to deal with road wise, but the minute it goes to freezing rain with temperatures in the 20s it's going to be real bad. The pavement is not going to hold the warmth of this afternoon. The low tonight is 25. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm seeing some wind guests 25-30 Friday night Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's great to know!! Thank you for that insight. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The Poconos might be decent Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

A week ago we were looking at 50's for tomorrow. Now it maybe a mess, but it's our mess, and we will get some amazing landscape images come Saturday morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We seem to be trending towards a more traditional FRZ event. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The preceiptitation won't be particularly heavy so it might be prime accretion weather especially Friday night with temperatures in mid to upper 20's. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk