Jns2183
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Everything posted by Jns2183
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KMDT also hadn't had measurable precipitation in July Yet. They are officially at a T. I'm at 0.08". Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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He's a small island of shitty luck. You go a couple miles in any direction and totals are closer to mine. I don't think the resolution of their maps is small enough to show his island of despair. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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I think that was me with double. He's had about 1" in last 60 days he said the other day. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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I just looked up 1966. From May 1st through July 31st we had 1.86". Through August 31st 3.39". Also I think @canderson has lowest rain total of anyone since June 1st. I believe it's well below 1" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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@canderson and I want to petition to join your desert. We need a name however Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Just went out to water plants Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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We are shit out of luck Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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I think what would be interesting would be downloading the hourly observations for that KMDT time period that I currently have the daily summaries for. Extract just the July observations. Filter out any days that have measurable precipitation for 6 hours between the hours of 6am to 6pm. Then find the max temperature distribution for the remaining days. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Of course that storm fell apart and all I got was hot steamy drizzle Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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So it looks like a pretty good match for inverse trend. As the mean temp has risen the trend for days at or below 74 has fallen at just about same pace Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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It might just inversely mirror the mean temp rise over the years Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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There definitely is a longer term trend, but it is less drastic than people make it out to be. It's also unclear if and how much it may be related to longer term cycles. People don't handle year to year variability well. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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I'm made we got skipped over by storms once more Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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I think this has to be related to the theoretical max temp versus our theoretical min temp. Basically the closest you have to each extreme the more rare it is. But also seems like you're working with different statistical distributions for the high end versus the low end Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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That's a great question and you are probably correct. The data set I have downloaded is KMDT from 1/1/1941 through 12/31/2023. The question I have is do you want to know what the probability of 13 below normal days are for a rolling 20 year. Referencing the mean during each rolling 20-year period or do you want to reference the mean for the entire data set. Basically if the average July mean for entire set is 86, and the mean for July 1950 - July 1970 is 84, the 13 BN will be different temps Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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What are you talking about in reference to 60% more to 400% more? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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For it not to be skewed, at minimum, The median would have to equal the mean but that's not reality. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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But it has to be skewed due to the whole distribution being skewed Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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See I think the average Joe is going to care much more about a 13 below normal day in January or a 13 above normal day in July then they will for a 13AN in January or 13 BN in July. The numbers don't matter it's how it feels to them. I remember you were asking before why new stations don't make such a big deal out of days with a much bigger above normal spread than we currently have when it's winter. And I see the answer that is because it feels good in winter versus it feeling not good in summer with a much smaller AN Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Haha. I went to Penn State, finished up at Penn State Harrisburg. I spent 2 1/2 years in Engineering before switching to Accounting. When I graduated I was one math course short of a minor, but took several upper level stat courses. I went back to bartending because I loved it and I could after my brother sold a business I helped him start. Before that I worked for government as corporate tax auditor dealing with complex financial instruments, tax shelters, etc. I enjoyed the intellectual aspect of my work but the bureaucracy really suck the living soul out of me and made me hate getting up every morning so I jumped at the chance of being able to not do that anymore. Are you statistics in figuring out what to even look for, and it's worth looking at, and in the understanding of the financial instruments themselves. Although numbers took a back seat to trying to figure out the legal framework and how to apply different things. Feel like I know enough about statistics to get myself in trouble and make myself dangerous by deluding myself. It's very difficult trying to put some of these concepts in simple terms and actually I have found out that some of the best teachers out there have been from Khan academy and some other amazing YouTubers. The biggest hurtle I've had was my resistance to learning python and working with big data and although I'm still just an amateur with it I'm slowly getting better. Chat GPT has been an absolutely amazing resource for learning how to apply Python to these data sets Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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First issue is that standard deviation is the language of a normal distribution which we do not have here. More likely we have either a gamma or about normal one or some Frankenstein like combination of the two. I will try to plug all the numbers in next week or so see what it comes up with for the distribution and following equation. That should allow me to produce a charge that roughly states what AN value a specific BN temperature corresponds to according to a relative frequency in relation to a mean temperature (most likely mean January temperature). In a short, in a real rough generation, 1 std dev will have different values depending on whether it is BN/AN Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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It's not that no one cares it's just about the rarity of events. I'm sure +20 in winter is order a backlitude some more likely than -20 temperature differential Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Sure we can create a chart that uses the equivalent probabilities instead of temperature differential Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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@Bubbler86 this is the answer to your question of why no one cares when we have a plus 15 temperature differential in winter time. Because essentially it's three to five times harder have a plus 15 temperature differential and summer or a -15 temperature differential in winter than the inverse for each season Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Officially hit 102 at KCXY Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
