Jns2183

These images may be of help Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here's substack post from new app https://open.substack.com/pub/actuallyweather/p/which-forecast-is-best?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=16mod Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

For anyone who wants a look at Google's new weather model, meteorologist Eric Fisher has a simple forcast viewer on his github https://efisher828.github.io/weathernext/ Here's more information on it https://deepmind.google/science/weathernext/ https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/projects_gcp-public-data-weathernext_assets_weathernext_2_0_0 If anyone has the technical background I believe you can already do a whole lot more Finally this new endeavor I came across that has a whole lot of potential even though it currently only had temperature and wind verification scores. https://www.actuallyweather.com/?run_date=2026-01-21 What's neat is it has it by major weather reporting station, like kmdt. The promise is soon we could have scorecards for about 50 variables like snow, and rainfall, along with ability to customize periods. And yes, I understand the scorecards put out by the nws and euro are for much larger areas and maybe even tracking slightly different metrics, but dear God they require hours of study to even interpret probably as the user base for them usually have phD. While I understand that accuracy in temperature or qpf for a single location has the probability of noise being potentially exponentially bigger than the signal, (i.e a model, especially an mL one that continuelly maximizes minute station details may quickly Decoherence at the upper air forcasts that drive accurate forcasting at a greater geospatial scale; in happy that a true effort is finally being made to score at the level we all care bout and spend so much effort discussing. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here's from an infograph I made from the text bulletins of the 19z NBM. specifically regarding snowfall percentile amounts by region Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here's some maps of this area's most famous cold sleet storm, because if it's going to sleet it's going to do so into some cold surface air Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I wish for a twitter battle between him and the WPC Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If anything this reminds me of December 2009 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I don't think you're going to know till within 24 hours with how models have been. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

@MAG5035 please correct me if I'm mistaken. I could totally be off on a wrong track and have no idea. I'd rather be wrong and learn than keep spouting crap. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think this storm is partly here due to la Nina breaking down. That increases volitilty significantly which is what we want for a big storm. The down side is the northern trend all winter has been due in part to the la Nina. I also feel, and I believe, studies have panned at that the northern trend that models do well above 50/50, isn't do so much to the teleconnection as it is data availability and it being much more available at lower latitude. If anything the prudent choice of action would be to see which models have had the better accuracy with high pressure placements at higher latitude both all winter and during the past month as that seems to be the hinge this storms depends upon Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Over/under on. 5 tweets this week? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What's the Lancaster guy saying? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Are those by days of snow individually or do you compress multiple days to one storm. If you want I can send you how I did Harrisburg as well as raw data going back to 1890 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

At day 5 compared to day about 60-70% of the low mean pressure has come north with a mean distance of 100 miles Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This winter like most winters I would prefer to be on the northern fringe until 36-48 hours beforehand. This winter it's gone down to 12-24 hours. Most of our huge storms have followed the same pattern. Tonight and tomorrow I'll see what I can dig into regarding forcast days in advance and north trends just to confirm it isn't confirmation basis. The other interesting feature I glanced at was that the swing from bad luck to good luck seemed more often than not to be a pretty big storm. I want to put some quantitative numbers to that though. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Best position since 2016 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I remember laughing out loud when after all the damn hours I spent collecting daily data for NAO, PNA, AO, GBI, MJO, a couple other indicies going back to 1950 and running all the multivariate time lag correlations that at most those indicies explained roughly 6% of snowfall variance in our area. Further, that if I could have a super computer that held infinite historical data it would be a miracle if I approached 40%. So much of our storms come down frankly to dumb luck and pulling the slot machine handle. That said it isn't a slot machine, and our luck the past 5 years has rivaled the 1950s for worst luck ever. Eventually the luck will change. This weekend is as good as time for it to change as any I've seen. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Apparently the neighbors who got popped had a multi year fued. I remember reading up on it and it was so ridiculous I was in shock nothing happened sooner. I believe it's worth stressing the backstory here, else people believe they are at risk from getting it from any of there neighbors at any time. Not that they deserved this, just that your chance of being gunned down by neighbor are in someway usually proportional to your behavior over years. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I made a big one and he dove in head first before turning around with just his head sticking out and stayed in that position content for the next ten minutes Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Spent an hour outside with him happy as can be Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Any chance you have the original uncompressed images for the first 5 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I have close to 3" of snow. I also picked up this little guy yesterday. This morning he was scared of snow until he got in it. Then immediately went crazy with delight Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Thought people might enjoy this The temperature is based on recorded max temperature for day and the percentage is out of all the days preceiptitation was measured Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Final part Haha, I spent way too long on this to not put forth my pet theory regarding the 1960s. The absolute insane return periods for "luck" and just plain actual snow and it's correlation to some events has not been studied super well. I guess this is the sacrifice needed for us to get the winters we pray for. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Part 2 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk