Jns2183

A post about increasing sun angle and how it affects rates needed to accumulate on asphalt. It truly brings home the point that the 1993 storm was in its own league beyond even what we informed people think. It needed to overcome 2.3x more solar radiation than mid January and 1.5x more than mid February. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

March 15 is the cliff Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The next project I started working on gathering daily weather data for about 20-30 locations throughout the mid Atlantic and northeast that have a 100 year history or more to attempt to brake down the sub types of miller a and miller b and answer tough questions like "if a storm hits like yesterday, how does that effect the odds of our winter going forward?". I'm sure it has a giant temporal component but we shall see. Below are percentage chance of storms occuring by day in March and a decade regime change in snowfall distributions for the fragmented Altoona area Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I bit the bullet and downloaded state colleges record daily weather going back to 1894 and built a model to run 100,000 simulations. Got it to pass all over fitting tests, have a 99% percentile correlation, 94% interweek variability correlation, 98% intra- seasonal correlation based on auto-lag correlations. To have repeat of winter 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 back to back order not important it is a 1:1666 year event. To repeat the first four years of the 1960s 1:768 year event. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Also does anyone here have any idea of who I contact to pay to get archive of all the past Central Pennsylvania threads Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That bright blue flash was a transformer that knocked power out to a lot of Camp hill. That caused them to have to cancel school today instead of two hour delay. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Watching that band gave me flashbacks to 2016. I also think it's worth noting how that south Central pa was the jackpot in that historical storm. Even accounting for "climate loading"—the observed increase in high-intensity precipitation events due to a warmer, more moisture-rich atmosphere the return period for 30" 82 years 33" 145 years 36" 260 years People here recorded those values during that storm with kmdt having 30.1" That's a once in 3,6,10 generation type event and was only 10 years ago. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You hit the nail on the head regarding the "democratization" of weather data. We’ve reached a point where access to data has outpaced the literacy required to interpret it. When someone hands you a printout of a single model run, they aren't looking at a forecast; they're looking at one possible mathematical solution out of thousands, and usually the most extreme one. It’s the Meteorological Dunning-Kruger Effect: they know just enough to find the map, but not enough to know why that map is hot garbage four days out. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Actually ended up hitting just over 5". My daughter's school who confidently went with a two hour delay last night woke me up early with a message that they meant a two hour delay to the "flexible instructional day", they just forget to add "flexible instructional day" to the message last night. It's absolutely beautiful outside. Still not much wind which is probably a very good thing with how caked. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm in Camp Hill. Not far at all. We got very lucky. That one nice band width was basically only from Mechanicsburg to city island. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Regardless snow will be gone by Tuesday probably. Certainly Wednesday. It gets to 50 by Saturday and Sunday. With next chance of snow Monday March 2nd. Realistically we have the next 21 days to add to total before we reach the point where a 6" snowfall is a 1 in 20 year event. All told when looking at the statistics over the years and studies one is left with the hard truth that despite all data and computer power, over 80% of variance in yearly snow in the mid Atlantic and northeast is due to essentially luck, and it took an ungodly amount of data and computer power to even get it down to 80% since it's basically an exponential function. One can at least measure this luck. And over the past 5 years we have been as unlikely as we were lucky during the 2010's. The 1940s hold the title still for unluckiness but we are easily in line to beat them unless we spit out a couple 50" plus seasons out of the next 3 years. But just like other runs of luck and bad luck it won't last forever. Within the next 10 years we will almost certainly have a 60" plus season again which I will truly savor. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm went over 4" close to midnight. Light to moderate snow here still. My prediction was 4". Maybe I can squeeze out a bit more. I'm guess I'll end up with 5"-6". Which the euro had been spitting out here for a number of days. Still not a lick of wind. That is surprising Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Now now, his time will come. I implore you to dust off your records on the fabled 2010 winter. Look at those gradients, last second model moves, and unlikely target zone. I remember joking around in the message boards with everyone that the local Mets had achieved a feat I thought impossible. For each of the 3 big storms that year (December and 2 in February) they ended up being off by nearly factor of 2 in their predictions at the time first flakes fell. Basically they kept calling for 6-10" and we ended up with 15"-20". How do you think he would have handled those? Every forecaster has bias, hell it's even good he knows what he is. I just can't get over the mental frame he has of trying working hard to increase his bias. Every bit of success he seems to embrace his bias publicly a bit more each day, like a gambler on a winning streak trying to talk shit to the dealer. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I literally just saw two supped up kias try to race each on 11/15 north starting at the light at market street. Reffing the engines waiting for red light to turn green, take off flooring it and about 1.5 seconds later both lose control spinning into each, fiberglass kits shattering. Looks like they both lost side view mirror, parts of their bumper, a tail fan. Both got the hell out of there onto a side street pretty quickly. The ones muffler was dragging throwing off sparks. That truly was the single stupidest thing I've seen in life. Literal on the same level as the guy who jumped in the ocean offg the booze party boat at night in thet Caribbean with numerous large sharks following Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It is nice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

@canderdon this is winter version and reverse uno for 6 week period over this summer when 6 seperate events left me with .47" of rain and you with 5". Each of those events I had less than .10" while you had .75 to .89. I can understand if it was a random one-off event but it was weird seeing a pattern like that in the summer Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What's the elevation there Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I somehow have 2.5" in camp hill. Everything is fully covered Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

These last two storms have completely sold me on the RRFS model. It's due to replace the nam, rap, hrrr, prep, SREF, the whole regional/local convective model combo along with ensemble. I just spent the last 2 hours processing some ad-hoc model skill verification metrics and reading a couple recently released studies on it. All that combined with its performance the last month all over (I constantly was checking it's performance around the nation). I'm now moving it to the place I once held the euro. Even at its range end of 84 hours I value it more than any other model. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That is why you never judge a model on 3rd dynamic effects, aka snowfall. If Philadelphia gets less than 7"-8" then I will say the models busted. No model had all all of Lancaster county with 12"+ along with a 40 mile buffer to account for model resolution noise, ever. The gradient spent the last few days living in Lancaster county on almost every run with some of the meso models not like the RRFS never showing anything above 5"-6" as a max for entire county from first run to last. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Another thing is that there is absolutely no wind at all Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Now pray for storm to bomb out, retrograde further and tuck in longer. That would be the maximum hilarious factor of the rare back end cover after the news stations just predicted total snow in Harrisburg of 1"-2" after the forecast this morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It was always going to happen to someone due to the area between both bands having all moisture vacuumed up. Can't cool the column. Let's remember 2009 and 2016 for how insane the cut off is in these storms. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's special Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Watching that band is interesting. Pictures in order are from 330, 430, 530, 620. That band has collapsed east due to the bombing low. If it didn't and stayed in its location and strength the area between it and coastal would be stuck in drizzle all night. Sometimes these things hate moving at all Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk