Jns2183

I thought 1999 was the gold standard for bad recent droughts over the summer. Anyways that yearr keeps popping up in any kind of analysis I run Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The top soil layer is bone dry. We can usually add a bunch of moisture to systems like this, but not right now and for a long while. Any and all moisture we can use has to brought in right now and these systems won't cut it Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This is a PAC004 Lower Susquehanna analog monitor using 133 years of data. The analogs split into two camps: recovery years, where a real July/August rain break arrived, and grind years, where the pattern stayed dry enough that small rains failed to reset the soil. Recovery camp: 1898, 1900, 1921, 1934, 2010, 2024. Grind camp: 1913, 1944, 1964, 1966, 1999. The 2026 line starts inside the recovery envelope, but by July 12 it peels toward the dry edge, about -1.0σ from recovery and past the grind mean. The key window is July 7–20. Around 73% of analogs had their first half-inch rain by July 20. So this is not a locked-in drought verdict yet, but the current track is leaning grind unless we get a meaningful half-inch-plus rain event by mid-July. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Whenever I see 1988 and 1999 pop up as the two most likely analogs it is not going to be a good time Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Camp Hill enters the late-June/early-July heat with essentially no water in the bank. PRISM put just 0.76" on the cell over June 12–24, and my 5cm soil moisture tells the real story: it peaked near 62% after the June 10–12 rain and has bled straight down to ~37% since, with no resupply. The cumulative water balance (PRISM rain minus reference ET0) sits around −6.9" since April 1 — and that's before the heat arrives. This is a drained antecedent state, not a buffered one. @canderson I don't think you remember remember 1999 here because I was in high school still I remember that summer vividly as unbearable The forecast offers no relief. Pulling real Open-Meteo QPF rather than a zero assumption, the next ten days deliver about 0.18" of rain against ~2.2" of ET0 demand, dragging the balance to roughly −8.9" by July 4. ET0 ramps to 0.28–0.32"/day as highs hit 99–103° on July 1–3. Worse, the little rain that's offered falls before the heat peak and in sub-0.10" dribbles that largely evaporate before reaching the root zone. Functionally, plan as if it's a zero-rain stretch. To gauge where this goes, I searched 45 years of PRISM for 4-day stretches matching the upcoming signature — mean highs near 100°, dewpoints around 70°, near-zero rain — and found seven. The key split is antecedent moisture. The two most recent analogs (2011, last June 2025) walked in wet, with a soil buffer, and broke within days. The genuinely dry-antecedent cases — 1988 and the two 1999 events — are the right comparison for 2026, and they resolved three different ways: 1988 broke in 48 hours, 1999b ground on 25 days before a 2" dump, and 1999a never recovered, posting under 0.9" over the following month of compounding drought. Bottom line: this isn't a remarkable heat event by temperature alone — four analogs hit similar highs. It's the combination of humid 100° heat onto drained soil that puts us in the worst tier the record offers, alongside the late-1990s flash-drought setups rather than the well-watered recent years. Dry soil suppresses its own convection, so recovery depends entirely on an external trigger — a front or organized storm breaking through. The single thing worth watching is the medium-range guidance for that first genuine frontal passage in early-to-mid July. Its arrival is the 1988 path; its continued absence is the 1999a grind. Right now the forecast's leading edge looks more like the latter. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It goes in and out Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Those first 4 days July is going to burn out the grass here and send us into not good drought conditions. For whatever reason @canderson and I have missed most of the rain this month. I sit at 1.25". We are in not good shape here and have been muddling along due to cool temperatures. That's all about io change and my soil moisture sensor already is at lowest ever 35%. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

.08" puts me at 1.31" for June and 15.14" YTD. 4.53" below normal and good for 11th driest out of 131 years. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Some light reading Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Watching the Great outdoors I am one with the racoons Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Is there some aspect of it that you were looking for mostly I could probably guide you even further Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It's because they took it out to the wood shed and discontinued the product https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-34_AR_ER_WR_RTP_Discontinuation.pdf The screenshot there has your best chances to find a replacement Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What happened yesterday that my weather station only recorded .21" of rain Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Heading up today to Montreal and Mont Tremblant, to apparently experience the April we never had here. And actually have to be faster days I will take that in the heart beat. After playing around with a bunch of different styles I think I've settled on this one for the perfect style for vacation weather sending out to everyone in the extended family who's going up there. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It seemed like all the storms yesterday at issues reading inflow from the rain core and essentially would choke themselves while the area around them played roulette with who is going to get to convergence from the competing outflow boundaries and who was going to get left in the dust. If you look at what happens when the storms congeal consolidate into a cold pool that cold pool axis pretty much a shovel throwing up all the warm moist air quickly upwards and technically that is what propagating it they original storms pretty much blow up die off while the cold pool constantly is pushing the warm moisture ahead giving the illusion of the storms actually moving. Yeah there is definitely a gradient to all this. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You sir have one the most studied watersheds in the nation with 5 minute data going back to 1968 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I currently sit at 13.89" for the year. Just about the 11th percentile If you folks want the most accurate rainfall history out there for your own backyard go here https://prism.oregonstate.edu/explorer/ 800m resolution and daily totals going back 1981 with monthly totals going back to 1895 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This a painful miss. Going to converge just east of river Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Groundwater is a different animal to all of those things. You need to ask yourself what you are measuring because your measuring different things. There's things like river gauge level for things you want to measure. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Yup had entrainment and a cold pool while us in the valley got double teamed with cold pool and outflow flowing in from north and south. Future reminder is that if storms fire on both sides of the elevator train north and south of me to not expect much it's physics usually wins in the situations with cold air draining in undercutting all of our instability Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

.02". This area continues it's struggles when lots of others cash in. It's funny looking at 60 month maps and seeing a bullseye Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha, it might be because people are still below the 40th percentile for ytd rainfall. Honestly unless we get area wide coverage of 25" from now till end of August I'd expect this map will be there the entire summer. Add in the fact that many have not had an above normal season in 3-4 years I'd be more worried if the map showed nothing. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Yum. I just made a beignet rum in our rotovap Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Tomorrow is apparently euro upgrade day and this new upgrade supposedly treats the GFS like used toilet paper. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Hoping for a reverse of last year. By end of May last year I was at 17.81" which is the 67th percentile yet I still finished in the 39th percentile for the year. I'm hoping for at least one good tropical influence storm this year hopefully 2. I'd love to get a good 20-25 inches of rain throughout the summer Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk