Jns2183
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Everything posted by Jns2183
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KMDT has 0.55. That intense band was only 10 miles wide and no mesos had the placement of it correct, just that it was going to happen in region. Somewhere Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Do you have the extended radar from overnight or a link to it. It had to be a super thin feeder band. Some stations less than a mile from me are pushing 5" while KCXY is pushing 2". That is insane gradient Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Yup Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Spoke wrong. 3.86 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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That will do it. Finally lucked out Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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2.86" since midnight with this big batch still to go. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Possibly multiple tornadoes on ground south of DC Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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First ever PDS warning Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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That tornado warning in Delaware was PDS, first ever for state, and verified Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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These have to have some great rates Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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We've been Meso'd Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0841 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 631 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 082230Z - 090400Z SUMMARY...Back-building efficient tropical showers. Banded streaks of enhanced rainfall and flash flooding likely to continue through early overnight period. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR depicts a tightening mid-level deformation/FGEN zone highlighted by the more dense stratiform shield extending from the Blue Ridge across central MD toward the Delaware River Valley. CIRA LPW and 850-700mb RH analysis suggests the core of the warm conveyor belt is directed from the Outer Banks directly up the Chesapeake Bay. It is at this intersection that the strongest deep layer moisture convergence is analyzed and 22z surface streamlines veer slightly through the Delmarva peninsula to enhanced surface moisture convergence. This has resulted in prolonged training event across N DE with 5"+ rainfall has already fallen; the wave and deformation zone is lifting slowly into SE PA, but given strong intersection convergence with the deformation zone broader ascent and a favorable back-building environment still will remain with very slow northward progress over the next few hours. Combine this with frictional convergence affects and additional convective bands may start to develop across N MD and maintain across W MD/E WV as well. A wedge of weak to modest instability (500-1000+ J/kg) is forecast to maintain given advection off the warmer eastern Atlantic through the evening. The core of 2.25-2.5" TPW in the warm conveyor belt will continue to be advected on 40-50kts of 850mb flow, so efficient flux convergence will continue to support shallow tropical warm core convection capable of 2-3"/hr rates. As such, narrow streets of 3-5" remain possible. The MPD area also aligns with lowered FFG due to recent Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) in the last couple of days. Hourly FFG values less than 1.5" stretch much of the area of concern with 3-6hr FFG not much higher at 2.5-3" with exception of Northern VA/southern MD and S NJ. As such, focused bands of flash flooding are likely though given the bands will be relatively narrow and widely scattered. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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This firehouse is impressive. 4.5" in 3 hours Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Tornado warning in Delaware soon to be in PA Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Lancaster has either 0.10", 2.1", 4.3" there Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Here is 21z HRRR, 18Z 3kNam, 18z HRDPS (high resolution rgem I think) all at 15z or 11am tomorrow morning. Haha, definitely a whole lot of spread there. Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk
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Haha, I'm guessing for the great valley to have lush green in heart of summer that he will be driving there on his evacuation route due to Marysville flooding under 25" of rain. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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State College radar has some sprinkles, but remember the beam is at 7200 ft and Sterling's beam at Harrisburg is at 8500ft. Which is why everyone's been waiting for that dopplar radar in Lancaster to open. Speaking of which does anyone have any idea what's going on with it? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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You have legit chance to get to 3.50"+ for week. I'm at 1.06" and hoping for 3" total for week. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Continued Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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This is RDPS radar-like map Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Here is the 18z RDPS which is just the regional Canadian. The second image is the 12z for comparison Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk
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Those bands if they continue and expand leads one to start taking the 12z RGEM more seriously. Do you know when the 18z comes out for it? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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What were your totals for Tuesday, yesterday, and today so far? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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I went into the guts of the NBM and pulled out the qpf by percentiles for tomorrow for some airports around the region Capital City, Hagerstown, York, Lancaster, Reading, Clearfield Enjoy Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
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Here's the precipitation forecast as of 2:00 p.m. today. The first photo is the 24 hours ending Friday at 2:00 p.m. . The second photo is 24 hours ending Saturday at 2:00 p.m. . And the third photo is the 72-hour rainfall. I want to highlight the point that by Friday at 2:00 p.m. it's saying some parts of Lancaster county will only have 3/4 an inch of rain while some portions of Cumberland Perry county will have over 3 inches of rain. Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk
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