Jns2183

That storm also put down 6” after all snow was suppose to stop. It was weird. Like every model was wrong in each it’s unique way wrong .

2 to 3 hours here bone dry. Some places in sw Cumberland county have been under an intense band forever .

Radar looks like the lsv will be in the main Ccb for awhile as it forms .

12z NAM gives lsv 8-14” .

The HRRR certainty has trended our way. Realistically I can see MDT getting anywhere from 5” to 14” and they all seem just about as likely. .

What a ridiculous model spread within 24 hours. 4” to 24” .

Add in the 2” already on ground and a 10-14” storm total is pretty much what they started with and technically within the 12”-18”. Whoever is in the band when the stall happens will see 16” maybe more .

The NAM seemed to underestimate the snow around Chicago by 40% to 55% .

Hoping someone can chime in on the science behind the orientation of the frontogenesis at 700mb. I’m guessing the timing of the transfer and any capture come into it .

Notice the banding setup on Euro, gfs vs NAM. east to west vs more north to south. .

So measure what you have at 7pm and add that amount .

30 miles will separate 8” from 20”. Have fun predicting that .

MDT will need to avoid the dry slot to break 10” .

If you go look at all the short range models they have some spread. .

You can sorta see the outline of this in the meso with the finger like bands of heavier accumulations. I think confluence and timing of the capture will determine the orientation of the bands. The sus valley can benefit with an increased easterly fetch being banged up against the mountains starts to enhance the WAA before the CCB really gets going. We can have a wide area of moderate snow for hours. I still think the heaviest totals will be out towards Allentown but being able to cash in for 6 or so hours before the main CCB gets going east of here will even out the snow distribution some. If the Ccb is more east west than north south then you get what the euro was depicting. Personally, having 24 hours straight of moderate snow would equal about 12” and be a dream for me. Long duration events have been rare since the 1990s it seems. I consider myself lucky to have experienced thundersnow 3 or 4 times in the last 15 years here. Never have I had a super long duration storm though. .

Just because I have family out near Pittsburgh I will always remember that one storm in feb 2010 that due to a trailing boundary that setup e to w the 4 to 8” turned into 16” with news stations caught still calling for it when 12” was already on the ground .

From past memory there always seems to be a 2nd and sometimes 3rd heavier band set up in the same orientation as the main Ccb. The model differences seem to amount to which orientation these bands lie. I view these areas like hills and valleys. If you are 25 miles behind one of these bands you’re going to stuck in a lull for an extended period of time. It also seems like the heavier bands with the coastal will pivot back towards the sus valley. If we are lucky enough to be the pivot point with bands going a more wsw to ene orientation like on the euro you will get a more widespread 10-16” snowfall. So I’m guessing paying attention to the meso from this evening onward will tell the story .

How many hours long was the 1996, 2010 twins, 2016? Trying to figure out how close we came to have 48 hours straight of snow .

18.9” 1.44” .

How many hours straight of snow is this? .

They can keep their warnings I’ll take my 16” and call it even. Besides I would find it enjoyable seeing all the Facebook posts from people stuck in the snow since they bitch nonstop when ctp does issue anything .

Is there a website that archives NHS forcast each day. Like if I wanted to go back to 1/20/1995 for example, and find the NHS 3 or 5 day forecast on that date. Is there a site (pay is fine) that provides historical model run data at good resolution so that I could say pull up the forcast tempature, qpf, snow on each model run for the past 6 months at at least 24 hour increments for Harrisburg for the euro or gfs? .

DC in shambles .

We would join 1972/73 & 2005/06 in only having a T in snow for month of January in the last 132 years. In fact, 10 winters, have had a January with less than 1” of snow. 2006/07 only had 0.60”. .

The forecast highs this week look balmy for January .