Jns2183

It’s about time one of these is a bit of an over performer .

Man it felt balmy in the sun. The clouds rolled in and I feel the wet cold in my bones .

I’m on board with that icing forecast. It mirrors the valleys perfectly .

I’m not certain “looking better on screen” means what it used to given the models tendency to be more flakey then a valley girl on a speed binge. Give me a low track below DC, a high in the right position, and cold nearby and I’ll take my chances regardless of what each of the valley girls say. .

The lows going to ride the boundary. Unless that low is tracking across southern pa with a high to our north and our vulnerability to CAD, I can’t for the life of me see a low tracking south of DC, a weak one at that, is going to send a driving rainstorm through Harrisburg. This has ice written all over it .

I’d pay careful attention to the temp tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Forecast high is 42. Let’s see if we get below forcast low of 31. I’m trying to remember how many times we have had a rainstorm with a weak low going south of us, a high over Quebec, artic air close. I don’t know. I do know long term climo says low level cold is a bitch to scour out in the LSV, especially Cumberland county. I’m also now under a WAA that every model has down by Richmond 36 hours ago .

Well we don’t have a low bombing out to give us a 3sd+ easterly fetch. We have a gulf moisture laden storm running head first into an artic dome, being reinforced by a high pressure, with us right on the boundary. Said Storm pinballs under us cause it’s not displacing that cold. This area will hold on to low level cold damn well. Now the 700/850 are just slightly above 0 if at all, and the 925 & surface seem below O. I think like Mag said before that would scream sleet. So why are the physics of the Euro spitting out freezing rain? Did anyone look at the skew-t on pivotal for the 4am? Is there a sneaky warm thin layer on there that isn’t being depicted on the 925/850/700? .

What’s the temp showing on the euro the night before storm? During storm? What time is it suppose to start? Most important is how long is duration? Is this 1” going to come in a 6 hr period or 24 hours? If it’s the latter and you have generators I’d advise to test them and fuel up. .

I trust the HRRR and 3k-NAM inside 18 hours. Seems like the rest are having an epically horrible time separating the signal from the noise. I’ve been telling people that unless it’s within 24 hours to ignore any and all forecasts .

As a bartender this past year has been about as hard as possible just making ends meet without blowing up savings. I don’t need ice to make work any slower. Plus stone slabs for a walkway are a bitch in ice. I just have my gut screaming at me to buy a generator .

I’m sorry folks. I can feel it in my gut, and in my pelvis fractures from getting nipped by a car. We are going to see our first major ice storm in 10 or 20 years. .

Anyone have the odds that the vort amplification will become dampened over the next 2 days? .

The euro is still ok .

The GFS is now showing this for 306 hrs out .

Friday night is cold with lows below 20. If this a coming in Saturday night then I’d be much more worried about ice with how hard low level cold is a leaving here .

This might be a bit long winded, but its how a look at things from a mental model frame and assigning certain weights to things. People love to preach climitaology, and it is great for some aspects, I just feel the time frame used and backwards looking nature of it combine to produce errors that are equivlent to an issue that is a major theme in risk management, econocmics, etc; that is thinking everything falls under a perfect bell curve and not being able to weight properly, low chance events, that might have a large impact. For example before the 1960's nothing in the 100 years of recorded weather history in this area would have predicted what occurred, or if did it would have been so unlikely as to disregard. The same thing happened in the last 25 years with large snow storms in this area. The average snow each year straight constant, but the frequency of large storms shot through the roof. So part of the issue is how you treat patterns that have different time periods as frequency and weight each one to see what is likely. On a much smaller scale, I find it out interesting how much people love the global ensambles here, but not a word on the sref plumes. Usually you can get an idea of possible outcomes just by seeing what grouping the plumes fall under and then if you look at the dx/dt you can get an idea of which one the trend is falling towards. I also try to take away the top and bottom 3 to get a more realistic look at the median, mean along with where the different groupings lay and where they start going apart from each other. .

Until there is reason to change it almost seems like current rules are 1) storm will be weaker cut under 2) there will be north bump in final 48 hours 3) qpf will be less than modeled 4) any storm that blows up and has a 3 or greater st dev easterly fetch will sent sleet very far inland .

That December storm was pretty well advertised in advance. Granted the jackpot moved north but the amounts the models showed did come to fruition. Currently It almost seems like a perfect storm of items models have difficulty with (la Nina, progressive pattern with a unmoving block overhead) thrown in with a dearth of upper air aircraft observations .

Think of a snow, sleet, fzra, snow,fzra,snow sandwich. We’d have a new North American glacier for a month .

My favorite is Richmond at 26” .

I know what canderson really wants is a 970 behemouth with a strong tropical connection to plow right at us with a 1050 H right over Ontario/Quebec that crawls to almost a stall with surface temperatures about 15 and 850s about 50, dropping 3” of qpf over 4 days with sustained 40mph winds for 3 of them .

I take full responsibility if we get an ice bomb due to my questioning when we last had a serious icing event here .

Man, I would 2-4” twice a week for a few weeks straight hands down over one big one that mixes 60-75% of the time here. .

That 1000 mile stream of heavier stuff is aimed right at us .

I always have loved crazy temperature differences over short distances. This map is centered on Lyles, Tn. 25 miles and 20-25 degree temperature change .