Jns2183

It is 70 outside It is midnight It is April 18 We are going to to “min” our way into a top 10 warm April . Pro

Did any guidance have your 3”+ Sunday? A few people here are going to get caught under embedded convection and watch a pond grow where grass once stood. Everyone else will have to settle for a mud fest. Whatever larger cycle we are in, it’s one that loves raining more than guidance. . Pro

The last 18 months this area has truly been flexing its “temperate rain forest” muscles. Watch us find a way to have a top 5 warmest and wettest April with the least sun. . Pro

Pinger’s in Mechanicsburg . Pro

Not bad I’d say . Pro

How swamped are the baseball fields? . Pro

0.17” at airport so far. Water is ponding everywhere, but that’s mostly due to the ground being so wet that a deer pissing would cause ponding. . Pro

Between March 20-21, 1958; 50”+ of snow fell in Morgantown, Pa in Chester county. . Pro

Looks like KMDT recorded 2.07” yesterday by midnight and another 0.32” early this morning. As of 3/21 they have 4.24” for March and 11.12” YTD. Normal to date for March is 2.22” and normal YTD is 7.49”. So we are 2.02” above for March to date (in fact the average for the entire month is 3.37”) and 3.63”,or 48.4%, above normal YTD. If there is any solace it’s that last year at this time we were at 12.17”, 1.05” higher then this year. That might be tempered a bit due to us finishing March last year with 2.97”(0.40” below normal!) and 12.41” YTD by 3/31/18. Finally, if you include the 0.34” KMDT has accumulated since Midnight it would take us 37 days, from March 23rd through April 28th of no precipitation (normal precipitation for those 37 days is 3.92”) for us to reach below normal precipitation levels YTD. . Pro

We had to make up for the last couple weeks of dry weather . Pro

Remember today when in late May we have a cut-off low and are locked in the 40’s with drizzle for 5 days straight due to an east wind. . Pro

A few hours ago Colorado Springs had I think most people in this area would have a stroke if we ever saw 6 hours of heavy snow, winds sustained at 40 with guests to 60 . Pro

I think we’ve had 6 or 7? I can think of 5 really quickly. But that has included 2 20”+ snowfall, 1 which was 30”+, and 2 storms that dropped about 40” in 5 days. The last two Marches have included storms that dumped 12” on 3/14/18 and 17” on 3/22/17. I think slowly people are appreciating It. The snowiest winter on record for Harrisburg was the winter of 60-61. I think they had about 82”. The biggest storm that year was 13”. Here was the breakdown. 12”+. 1 13.30” 6-8”. 5 33.30” 4-6”. 3 14.40” 2-4”. 2 6.20” T-2”. 21. 14.30” Since some storms are measured over two days these are the ones I found: 12/11(6.9”) & 12/12(4.1”) = 11” 12/20(1.2”) & 12/21(6.8”) = 8” 1/15(7.2”) & 1/16(.3”) = 7.5” 1/19(13.3”) & 1/20(5.6”) = 18.9” 2/3(6.1”) & 2/4(6.3”) = 12.4” 2/11(0.9”) & 2/12(3.8”) = 4.7” It also snowed 6 times in March that year for 4” and 3 times in April for 2.5” with the last snow > a trace coming 4/13 So a redue of our chart accounting for storms on two days would look like this: 12”+. 2 (31.3”) 8-12”. 2 (19”) 6-8”. 1 (7.5”) 4-6”. 2 (9.4”) 2-4”. 1 (2.4)” That’s 8 storms for 69.7” T-2”. 18 (11.9”)

It might be because we’ve had so many 12”+ storms in the past decade that the rarity and salience to memory isn’t what it once was. . Pro

He needs an Anemometer at his house . Pro

Seeing that lightning fire up may be a sign of things developing yet . Pro

Reeser’s Summit rain shadow . Pro

It hasn’t been heavy freezing rain at all. Small droplets....perfect for accretion . Pro

High pressure might be introducing dry air to eastern areas due to its location tomorrow . Pro

I’ll never forget January 2016 when the NAM through up, what we all thought were absurd snow totals, and wouldn’t budge, as the EURO and GFS danced all around and finally caved. I remember the SREFs average really trending towards the NAM which caught my eye that both the NAM & ensemble were in lock step. . Pro

It would be nice to get 3 or so 3"-6"/4"-8" snow events to finish out feb. Haven't had a bunch of those in a month in awhile.

Please don't hold back the technical side. I truly enjoy reading the technical posts.

In the last 20 years we had below normal precipitation at KMDT the following years: 1999,2001,2002,2005,2010 So for 15/20 years we have been above normal

If MDT gets below zero you will know because rural areas in Cumberland/Dauphin counties will be -10/-15. Until I see those starting to show up I know MDT won't be below zero.

Since the Winter of 1942 we have had 6 January's where we finished with between 16"-20". They are listed below. Its such a small sample size it shouldn't be taken that seriously, considering if I have made the cut off 15"-19" the yearly average would have increased over 30" I believe, haha. SN End of Jan SN Rest of Winter Total Season SN 1946 16.70 11.40 28.10 1949 19.00 14.10 33.10 1953 17.20 7.00 24.20 1977 18.70 4.70 23.40 2011 17.40 7.70 25.10 2015 16.20 23.00 39.20 Average 17.53 11.32 28.85