Jns2183

I figured with how conectivly driven their precipitation is over an extended length of time. I wish there was a method to determine the rate and variance of our convective driven precipitation vs stratiform that can be applied back in time to see changes and trends. Isn't our favorite meteorologist that graduated from millersville, took a job at Midland NWS, and informed us a month or so ago he was moving back to area and working for WPC? He would have all the skills and data at his fingertips to solve this riddle if it can be solved. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I was very curious of what kind of consistent weather co-op footprint your valley has. Is this wide variance just random or if there is a record of this in the summer going back 50+ years. I can see topographicly how the ridges either side of you can screw with convection creating a rain shadow, but your comment about being above KMDT in winter threw me for a loop. I know miller b screw zones are statistically not far to your west so it left me wondering what type of systems producing what type of precipitation from what angle do you excel at? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm half sure someone is going to show some map from Kansas that has 20miles between no drought and d4, and I'll have no clue how it's possible but fully understand how farmers would think they are cursed. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Truthfully you in the south need to hit the convection lottery or we are going to soon have a 10" difference (40%) in just 40 miles. Which is why I asked what's the shortest difference ever between a D2+ and no drought Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Now if these storms wouldn't have moved east and just trained for 6-10 hours we would have repeat of Lee Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Up 15 York springs 0.68" Dillsburg 1.16" Rossmoyne 2.38" Camp Hill 2.23" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You see above? Gettysburg with less than 1/4" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Took my daughter down the street to rite aid to play in rainwater lakes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I might have calculated wrong. I've had 3 old fashioneds on my porch. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Thank you They are at 1.06" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Biglerville has 0.31" Gettysburg has 0.18" So what I take from this is everyone's predictions good and bad verified within 25 miles of any location, which is the standard the NWS uses Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

There's going to be multiple small cutoffs. North of reading has 7". Waynesboro has 5', New Bloomfield has 6", York and Lancaster aren't over yet. Welcome to convection lottery Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Seems like next 2 hours will be that way. I was hoping for 1.5"+. Have close to 2.25". I'm wondering if kmdt even sees 1.5" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What are you at? That cell Friday sat over you for 90 minutes though. I never thought you would break 3" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

So apparently we get pwat values near 2" once more for the end of next week Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Anyone have link to 5 min observation from kmdt Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

2.10" now @canderson we now get into more strata rain but still think we end up with closer to 2.5" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm saying the dual-pol radar estimates are way under weather station rain gauges, which tend to happen in events like this Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

1.91" here Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This has all fallen since 1:30 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Radar estimate is 1", 2 Davis weather stations say 1.5" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You're about to get whacked hard once more Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm thinking we hit 2.5" unless some backbuilding occurs. I really have no idea. Every meso was out to lunch in there own way. Props to NWS for falling back on good old analysis and not budging when a few mesos wanted to give Waynesboro less than a 0.25". No one is going to be able to pinpoint huge convective totals, but it was funny this morning seeing Twitter weather folk takes on all this. What's nuts is outside philly already got smoked by morning convection. There was one young meteorologist from Cornell that his senior project all about the great floods of northeast and Mid-Atlantic that put his neck out about what he thought purely based on dynamics and history, saying this might be the closest event as compared to Irene and Lee the whole area has had since those events. It's not there yet, but it sure is trending there in some places. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Over 1.5". Flash flood warning now Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Just went over 1" all in last 30min Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk