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Jns2183

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Everything posted by Jns2183

  1. Jns2183
    Man it just let loose for 5 min here with rain. Those little cells mean business .
  2. Jns2183
    .
  3. Jns2183
    This event could feature just about every aspect of severe summer weather rolled into 1 day. With Harrisburg and points north having flash flood emergency while York and Lancaster counties feature tornado warnings. .
  4. Jns2183
    Ensemble mean. Wow .
  5. Jns2183
    Convection is blowing up. Wow .
  6. Jns2183
    4 16oz beers of 8% is the required amount to drink to post on here past 9pm .
  7. Jns2183
    Someone here is going to see 10”+ .
  8. Jns2183
    My parents had a 60ft tree fall after Lee. No wind. Just soaked ground. Any wind whatsoever will be bad .
  9. Jns2183
    So with the low strengthens as it goes under us as it undergoes post tropical transformation is there any worry of stronger winds mixing down in the heavy convection cause that is a wildcard that would make this far far worse .
  10. Jns2183
    The Hires short term models paint a lot larger area of heavy rain. Being a tropical system you almost have to weight numbers being underdone as it will be quite efficient as wringing moisture out .
  11. Jns2183
    Far enough where Agnes II would be required before I was worried .
  12. Jns2183
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  13. Jns2183
    Whenever people said it was a south trend or a north trend it seems regardless Cumberland and dauphin counties have been smoked on every model run for days it seems. .
  14. Jns2183
    .
  15. Jns2183
    Take a look at the HREF ensemble mean. Not many times you see mean qpf >6” over a huge area. If that isn’t a massive signal I don’t know what is .
  16. Jns2183
    Yeah that is not good for Susquehanna River .
  17. Jns2183
    You might have a rough day
  18. Jns2183
    The question I have is are these totals more likely to be under or over estimated. I’m not sure given it being a tropical system .
  19. Jns2183
    Look where the rain has broken out this morning and look at current frontal position. .
  20. Jns2183
    We may be headed towards a high risk flooding day .
  21. Jns2183
    Euro .
  22. Jns2183
    Boats please .
  23. Jns2183
    I was skeptical until every model I saw seemed to be zero in on that stationary front over us And I’m assuming some enhanced lift from something else. Looking at simulated radar Wednesday night is going to be bad. Really bad if some hi res models are correct. Lee’s flooding hit during the day. I fear a nighttime massive flood event. .
  24. Jns2183
    GFS same .
  25. Jns2183
    Canadian same .
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