Jns2183

I'm far outside my realm of reasonable pondering, but the faint bit of knowledge of those from the realm have hinted that models assumed a warmer precedent lower level would filter up to warmer mid and upper levels, where what as happened is a cooler mid to upper levels that helps balance the giant heat transport engine that is our weather. Now weather this is transitory or a more permanent aspect of climate change who knows. It's way to early. Although I do think there are some people that need humbled Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The NAM delays shit hit to morning Friday. At some point timing matters for instability. Another point is I've gone to using ensembles for anything over 48 hours and only use HRRR or NAM3k for 3 maybe 6 hours at a time. Because the mesos between 6-48 have been that bad Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Millersville is also a state university Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Basically it's going to come down to if we have to pay to access it Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

https://blogs.millersville.edu/news/2023/06/27/gap-filling-weather-radar-installed/ It's installed. Will be operational by beginning of fall classes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

@Bubbler86 @mahantango#1 The 12km NAM god heard you both Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Pick your favorite Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If it was cloudy all the time the rest of the forum would be chasing us with a rope Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm dead serious when I say all those overcast/misty and smoke filled days in May/june saved a lot of grass and gardens here Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Sure seems like mother nature loves to screw with us with how she distributes rainfall in winter vs summer (i.e stratiform vs convection) vs what is actually best for gardens Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How much rain did everyone get via Ida in 2021. I barely remember this event. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I don't know how accurate this is but insane differences Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=8&scroll_zoom=false&center=40.214538129296336,-74.99267578125001&boundaries=false,true,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&obs=true&obs_type=precip&precip_interval=1&precip_filter=0.01,30&obs_popup=false&obs_density=10&obs_provider=ALL Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What's the elevation of such area compared to surrounding areas Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Don't look at Tuesday forward Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This is setting the stage for tropical season if she chooses to dance Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How are you YTD vs normal Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How bad is our dog tomorrow morning? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I definitely do not know enough to know how convection is influenced by your location. For winter events I feel it may be related to the location of lows strengthen at all levels is further south, with midlevels or more important in WAA events. I'm sure the heights change by season with the low level jet and the answer lies in the mix of all these. From what I seen you do best when precipitation is already blossoming south and moving in like is common in WAA. These past few storms precipitation has blown up overhead or back build south. Regardless these local variations are fascinating Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Vermont just went under high risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I figured with how conectivly driven their precipitation is over an extended length of time. I wish there was a method to determine the rate and variance of our convective driven precipitation vs stratiform that can be applied back in time to see changes and trends. Isn't our favorite meteorologist that graduated from millersville, took a job at Midland NWS, and informed us a month or so ago he was moving back to area and working for WPC? He would have all the skills and data at his fingertips to solve this riddle if it can be solved. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I was very curious of what kind of consistent weather co-op footprint your valley has. Is this wide variance just random or if there is a record of this in the summer going back 50+ years. I can see topographicly how the ridges either side of you can screw with convection creating a rain shadow, but your comment about being above KMDT in winter threw me for a loop. I know miller b screw zones are statistically not far to your west so it left me wondering what type of systems producing what type of precipitation from what angle do you excel at? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm half sure someone is going to show some map from Kansas that has 20miles between no drought and d4, and I'll have no clue how it's possible but fully understand how farmers would think they are cursed. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Truthfully you in the south need to hit the convection lottery or we are going to soon have a 10" difference (40%) in just 40 miles. Which is why I asked what's the shortest difference ever between a D2+ and no drought Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Now if these storms wouldn't have moved east and just trained for 6-10 hours we would have repeat of Lee Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk