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Jns2183

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Everything posted by Jns2183

  1. Jns2183
    4 16oz beers of 8% is the required amount to drink to post on here past 9pm .
  2. Jns2183
    Someone here is going to see 10”+ .
  3. Jns2183
    My parents had a 60ft tree fall after Lee. No wind. Just soaked ground. Any wind whatsoever will be bad .
  4. Jns2183
    So with the low strengthens as it goes under us as it undergoes post tropical transformation is there any worry of stronger winds mixing down in the heavy convection cause that is a wildcard that would make this far far worse .
  5. Jns2183
    The Hires short term models paint a lot larger area of heavy rain. Being a tropical system you almost have to weight numbers being underdone as it will be quite efficient as wringing moisture out .
  6. Jns2183
    Far enough where Agnes II would be required before I was worried .
  7. Jns2183
    .
  8. Jns2183
    Whenever people said it was a south trend or a north trend it seems regardless Cumberland and dauphin counties have been smoked on every model run for days it seems. .
  9. Jns2183
    .
  10. Jns2183
    Take a look at the HREF ensemble mean. Not many times you see mean qpf >6” over a huge area. If that isn’t a massive signal I don’t know what is .
  11. Jns2183
    Yeah that is not good for Susquehanna River .
  12. Jns2183
    You might have a rough day
  13. Jns2183
    The question I have is are these totals more likely to be under or over estimated. I’m not sure given it being a tropical system .
  14. Jns2183
    Look where the rain has broken out this morning and look at current frontal position. .
  15. Jns2183
    We may be headed towards a high risk flooding day .
  16. Jns2183
    Euro .
  17. Jns2183
    Boats please .
  18. Jns2183
    I was skeptical until every model I saw seemed to be zero in on that stationary front over us And I’m assuming some enhanced lift from something else. Looking at simulated radar Wednesday night is going to be bad. Really bad if some hi res models are correct. Lee’s flooding hit during the day. I fear a nighttime massive flood event. .
  19. Jns2183
    GFS same .
  20. Jns2183
    Canadian same .
  21. Jns2183
    How often does the ukmet throw out 6”-8” rain totals? .
  22. Jns2183
    Harrisburg all time September daily rainfall record set during Lee is 7.17”. I thought I was going bout on a limb earlier in the week comparing this to Lee. I don’t even know anymore, but if Harrisburg gets 9”+ in 24 hours it’s going to be real bad. .
  23. Jns2183
    .
  24. Jns2183
    We need to add wind also so when candersan gets a a 43mph guest that takes a shingle and downs every tree within a half mile after 8” of Rain he can claim total victory while losing power for 2 days. .
  25. Jns2183
    Have Pittsburgh meteorologists. 5.9” vs 0.70”. Harrisburg somehow gets slammed every model, doesn’t matter which probably is a pretty strong signal for trouble. .
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