Jns2183

He managed to get his sensors right in the tornado. You know it's bad when he just throws it out there they aren't in a great spot and starts telling everyone to put in seatbelts. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The thing was also so close to a couple radar stations that the amount of low level radar data available is a jackpot for scientists. Truthfully I'm amazed no storm chasers met their end with how many love to get north of these type of tornados it's deviant motions it had all evening. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The one was 1/2 mile back in Cole, but it kept handing off. With the one merger there were 3 separate circulations, likely all on the ground pinwalling around each other. The storm probably has 5-10 separate tornados during its life. I spent way to many hours last night watching this in amazement. I remember the one met saying that this one supercell is going to break records for thesis and disertations due to its textbook at times, but uniquely complicated life cycle. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

As long as we can get plenty of rain I'm good. Being bone dry and 50 day after day seems hard this time of year Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

On my extended forecast for Sunday through Saturday all my highs are between 61-69 with only 2 in 61-63 range, the rest above. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Shawnee is now in cross hairs Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Some warnings say westward movement, some south, some north Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Now it appears a large oil tank farm was hit by one of the circulations, followed by lightning and exploded Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's not everyday you get to this a triple fuijiwhara of mesos with tornados in one storm Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

2 tornados now Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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Reeds stream was nuts when after he deployed the sensors the erratic movement put him far too close to the multiple vortices whipping around and a rear inflow jet pushing 100mph Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It just keeps cycling and handing off south east after the previous cirreculation makes sharp turn north before occluding. The structures match the hodographs from special balloon lunch perfectly. At one point meso had 3 distrinct circulations at once, similar to el Reno. This one storm is going to appear in a lot of future papers. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Those super cells by Norman were nuts tonight Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If my memory is correct they did a relanaysis of it based on stream gauges at the time and estimated the hills just east of town received upwards of 40" in under 6hours. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Smethport, pa July 1942. There are a few others like this roughly once ever 20 years. I believe last one was 1995 Madison county. These happen. They have been happening for awhile. It may just be how they analyse recurrence intervals in a specified area. But a 1000 year recurrence intervals is just bad wording. I'm sure if we had data for multiple locations within a specified grid for many thousands of years the smoothed probability distributions for entire region would be more similar to the models. But at no point do those graphs actually state that is the atmospheric maximum for such location. Because a podoke mountain town in north central pa had more rain than this in I believe less time, back in 1942. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-is-a-1000-year-flood Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This graph is from a meteorology student doing thesis work on extreme rainfall events. It's from the famous smethport, Pa 1942 event. The lines are recurrence intervals based on hydrology studies that are done for all the United States. The red dot is the observed event. There seems to be a major disconnect in exponential orders of magnitude. I'm sure part of the issue are standard fat-tail events are weird and smoothing for all points within a specified grid. But my lord, the upper bounds for what can happen at any one point in an area are off the charts compared to our models. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

84 high Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

KCXY only had .32. Rain Guage in camp hill had 1.03" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What's that site you use for estimated rainfalls locally Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Just wait till we get our snow bomb in 12 days Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This has potential for an interesting case study Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Weird Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Tornado clear springs, pa Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk