Jns2183

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Anyone with more information regarding wind. Euro is throwing out guest to near 60mph for Harrisburg. If mixing is going to dislodge this cold then it’s going to bring the wind with it mixing it down. I don’t think you can have one without the other here.

With a forcast high of 60 let’s reflect upon the fact of how much more fun cold air damming will make our lives the next few months. .

Truthfully I thought that was an extremely detailed winter forecast. When you have average snowfall as low as we do and the fact that one major storm can account for 80%+ of snowfall and the fact of how hard it is to predict those storms even 72hours out let alone months I have considerably more respect for forecast as detailed as this. With the high variability in accumulations we have between storms and between +\- 25 miles of any location maybe the best way to judge forecast would be if they issued #of storms between an accumulation range (I.e 1-3,3-6,6-9,9-12,12-15,15-18) and there confidence percentage so that by taking the median multiplied by number by % percentage confidence they come up with snowfall. .

What’s up with the heavy drizzle all night .

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2021/09/winters-early-arrival-expected-in-pa.html .

I wonder how Millervillewx is doing? Anyone know if he got that transfer out of Lubbock yet? .

The ideal solution which is not expensive is to place 4 or 5 automated stations within a 10 mile radius of airport observations, and include their observations in a probabilistic model to come up with a 95% probability interval of actual temperatures within that radius which can expand outward based upon confidence in reporting stations for a larger square mile radius. But hell if I know how to communicate that with a public that doesn’t know mean or median. I can’t imagine an instant where any branch of government actually had the forward looking perspective and discipline to plan putting all weather stations in UHI due to my time working in what is arguably the most important government function, revenue. Incompetence is the rule that seems to be golden. .

I suspect things explode as line comes off mountain .

I have looked into how they determine model errors vs actual forecasts vs observed and god help you if you don’t have a strong background in statistics. I sorta understand it, and maybe could explain it when I have time to review my notes, but it is not intuitive. I suspect it’s more correct doing it how they do it, but I was hoping to find more localized analysis and that seems not possible unless you posses a login for noaa to access certain information .

That may shatter a few records .

Do you know anywhere that has a dataset of Max dew point for each day? I know I can pull hourly observations but I have no clue how far back that goes and even so I don’t know enough coding to use Python to do it in any kind of efficient manner. 262,000 lines of observation isn’t handled well in excel or google sheets. You need store such data in a .txt file realistically and call it within python or Matlab or upload it to a different google service and use API to call it to run the statistics using python or some less well known languages. .

Maybe on its on but you had ida interacting with a strong frontal boundary with a high thermal gradient that created conditions where she was deepening just as she hit the mid Atlantic .

Man are they having a moist time .

How long will the boring stretch last? .

Over 6” .

Approaching 4” fast in camp hill .

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My friend up near shermansdale has 3.6” since yesterday evening including 1.04” in 14 min .

RadarScope is down .

Man it just let loose for 5 min here with rain. Those little cells mean business .

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This event could feature just about every aspect of severe summer weather rolled into 1 day. With Harrisburg and points north having flash flood emergency while York and Lancaster counties feature tornado warnings. .

Ensemble mean. Wow .

Convection is blowing up. Wow .