Jns2183

Shawnee is now in cross hairs Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Some warnings say westward movement, some south, some north Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Now it appears a large oil tank farm was hit by one of the circulations, followed by lightning and exploded Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's not everyday you get to this a triple fuijiwhara of mesos with tornados in one storm Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

2 tornados now Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Reeds stream was nuts when after he deployed the sensors the erratic movement put him far too close to the multiple vortices whipping around and a rear inflow jet pushing 100mph Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It just keeps cycling and handing off south east after the previous cirreculation makes sharp turn north before occluding. The structures match the hodographs from special balloon lunch perfectly. At one point meso had 3 distrinct circulations at once, similar to el Reno. This one storm is going to appear in a lot of future papers. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Those super cells by Norman were nuts tonight Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If my memory is correct they did a relanaysis of it based on stream gauges at the time and estimated the hills just east of town received upwards of 40" in under 6hours. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Smethport, pa July 1942. There are a few others like this roughly once ever 20 years. I believe last one was 1995 Madison county. These happen. They have been happening for awhile. It may just be how they analyse recurrence intervals in a specified area. But a 1000 year recurrence intervals is just bad wording. I'm sure if we had data for multiple locations within a specified grid for many thousands of years the smoothed probability distributions for entire region would be more similar to the models. But at no point do those graphs actually state that is the atmospheric maximum for such location. Because a podoke mountain town in north central pa had more rain than this in I believe less time, back in 1942. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-is-a-1000-year-flood Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This graph is from a meteorology student doing thesis work on extreme rainfall events. It's from the famous smethport, Pa 1942 event. The lines are recurrence intervals based on hydrology studies that are done for all the United States. The red dot is the observed event. There seems to be a major disconnect in exponential orders of magnitude. I'm sure part of the issue are standard fat-tail events are weird and smoothing for all points within a specified grid. But my lord, the upper bounds for what can happen at any one point in an area are off the charts compared to our models. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

84 high Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

KCXY only had .32. Rain Guage in camp hill had 1.03" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What's that site you use for estimated rainfalls locally Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Just wait till we get our snow bomb in 12 days Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This has potential for an interesting case study Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Weird Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Tornado clear springs, pa Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'd take a shut out next winter for this to happen may 1st Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Over 1" in camp hill Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The grass will be insane this week thanks to this rain Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The New England forum cracks me up. Post after post distilling the window ac installation habits of it's members broken up suddenly by news of a member coming across a black bear the size of a fiat on a pre dawn run. Also, don't run away from bears if you don't want to be chased. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk