Jns2183

Take the analysis back to 1900 and then try to figure out some snowfall totals from early decades compared to the 1960's and present. I think part of the discrepancy is definitely climate, but a big part also seems like a natural cycle for part of it. Let me know if you can teaseout the correlation coefficients for each part. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If anything the past 30 years have fallen in the feast or famine regime. Crazy amazings storms that were unprecedented or not snow at all. The change is in the 3-6, 6-12 snow storms. They don't happen. It's nothing or 18"+ with some minors thrown in. Basically our only snow in 2016 was out all time record blizzard of 34". The 80s were worse than 90's and 2010's Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Cherry picking data. The 1960s were so far outside the norm from the point of record initiation till then that by 1970 I believe the 1960s held the top 4 out 5 and 6 or 7 out of ten winters over the previous 90 years. A decade like that was so far outside the previous 90 years and the following 50 where I truly wonder how it happened Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

There was a big nature paper in May I think, that did a large study of the transition phases into el nino years combined with new climate data that basically predicted a hot August in the mid Atlantic to northeast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Better than my weekends Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We suffer much more than sport fans Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Anyone have any clue regarding those velocity returns south of Mechanicsburg by dillsburg I posted last night? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The real funny part is the HRRR at all the other short term mesos lunch for the last 6 hours. The NAM3k and FVS3 had the line as a few broken scattered showers before it even made it out of mountains. Seems like our entire convection model suite has had the accuracy of drunk monkeys playing darts this summer. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

20 min plus of continuous strong winds here. I wish I had an anemometer in my roof. I live in a narrow but 3 story house and I spent storm in my daughter's room on top floor with big windows facing west. Her one latch and lock is broken so when the wind abruptly shifted directions and increased speed it whipped window wide open as it opens outward. I had to get my belt to have enough leverage to close it in that wind until I almost had it a foot away from closing and wind direction spun back to coming from the west causing window to slame shut. Then I felt everything vibrating from my walls to the window along with a loud hallowing and it just kept on going. Being 3 stories and being the only 3 story place in some distance with nothing to break the wind but some mature tree canopys across the street. It felt like it did during Isabel Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Before I crash I saw a couple mets on Twitter mentioning how the small mesos within the line were dancing around each other in maybe a weird Fujiwara effect way. Between what I experienced with the rapid change in strong wind direction and saw on radarscope this line far exceeded my hopes. It was new, different, in interesting ways with an amazing firework show. Plus got double the high-end forecasted rain, with about an 1". Some young met student could probably do a create senior thesis on this line tonight. Or a case study for an experienced met where he gets to tell us what crack the NAM3K and FVS3 decided to smoke all day and why along with the interesting storm features. I'm most happy for the parched people to our south. The one guy in mid Atlantic forum, whose area is still strongly in D2 only had 1.87" since June 1st and I think less than 2.35" since May 1st. The line blew up south enough to give them a good drink. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Near Hannover someone took a nice low light picture of the shelf cloud associated with our line. Looks like multiple layers and crisp. Not common here at all. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Trees seem to be falling allover Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Finally my crazy wind guest I felt appears to have some radar validation. That yellow to peach area is above 60mph Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Here's another one a short time after just east of dillsburg. 90mph gtg Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It wasn't there for long so I have no idea if it's radar error, some artifact, or a few minutes good rotation that who knows touched the ground Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

6700 ft up Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If someone can explain what I saw on radar south of Mechanicsburg because I swear it looked like a quick spinup that was 130mph gtg Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Get ready. Worst wind yet coming to you. I'm not used to hearing howling like this and other house noises Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It like there's some embedded mesos riding up the line or something. Wind is still howling. This line absolutely blew up after the mountains when it hit our little severe parameter jackpot I mentioned before. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wow Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I've had insanely weird winds that changed from outflow to inflow and no outflow again. Blew a window open and I see a bunch of small to medium branches down. Winds still whipping house hard. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

That's about the best looking line on radar I've seen come through in years. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Also the HRRR really nailed this once storms got going Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Hang onto your shingles buddy. The outflow band was more windy than most storms here Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I can see the flashes high up over the trees now. Counted 36 in last minute. Still far away from camp hill. It is dead calm here. Eeriely calm. No air moving. Not a damn animal sound and I can usually always hear them. Just now I heard the long deep rumble faintly. Then the breeze started and lightning increasing by the minute Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk