Jns2183

I'm northeast of Carlisle currently. Watching this storm erupt and build via clouds is fascinating with now. Definitely have clouds at different heights moving in different directions Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Today with the high dews and weak stearing will definitely produce some slow moving gully washers. Getting under one those is weather equivalent of a sales guy I know who got a random cold call from a company CEO one Friday morning to buy enough of the small company he worked for product where he quadrupled his prior years salary in commission alone that morning. He later finds out the CEO secretary picked his number from the company website soley because he looked like "this nice church boy who cut her grass when her husband passed away". Sure, he did absolutely nothing to get that sale, but that wasn't stopping him and his boss from drinking 20 year old scotch by 10am that morning. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I believe Rex blocks have a long detailed and studied history of causing fits for models. Throw in that we've had for the last few years patterns that seem to get "stuck" for much longer time periods than climo says, upper lows being notoriously fickle, and driving convection as main precipitation mode and you get models that in long term default more and more on climo when pattern is unknown, thus leading to this situation. They did nail the cloudy "rainy weather for days part". I think them drawing a big circle over the northeast and Mid-Atlantic with a caption saying "cloudy, dreary, wet, rainfall between .50" and 6" next 3 days, we will let you know which camp you are in as convection fires each day" wouldn't go over to well. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

True, the thing is earlier in the week most models were showing a strong upper low in southwestern pa at this time pumping our area with 4 standard Deviation for this time of year easterly low level jet. That idea fell apart hard 24-36 hours ago on globals but mesos were still unsure and a mess. Frankly models the past month with this very unique pattern have been a bit of a hot mess nationwide but in a manner such that they nail stuff perfectly for awhile then majorly shit the bed for a bit. You saw some issues with the severe/flooding threat in gulf coast, and you saw all short term models completely whiff on storms even effecting Houston last night let alone 90mph winds, while still nailing the severe storms further west. Don't really know what you can even do. It's like nailing 90% of the nationwide forecast while whiffing bad on 10%, just that the area you whiff on is randomly generated each day Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Marysville 2", Philadelphia 1.25", king of Prussia 2", Allentown 3", Poconos 4"+ State College 1.5", Clearfield 1", Williamsport 2" Johnstown, Altoona, Pittsburgh 0.50" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Looks like Palmyra to Campbelltown to MT. Joy are our 180 day drought champions Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Here is NOAA observed precipitation for the last 180, 90, 60, 30, 14, 7 days. Would just like to know if any of these are wrong for anyone's location. Thanks! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's super humid, misting, with low visibility and low ceiling. Looked at WPC 7 day rain forecast. Ranges from 1"-1.25" down by Bubbler ramping up to 2" for Mechanicsburg, Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster and ramping up further as you go northeast with Pottsville looking at 3"+ Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

More like a different sub forum Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Our favorite California location Mammoth Lakes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Our needed precipitation is all up and down route 95. Was thinking something like that would happen just judging by radar and mesoanalysis this morning knowing the upper low was slowly drifting east. Just happy to score 1/2" this morning. I thought some there was a chance for enough breaks in the clouds to get some cape to set up storms, but it's been thick cover all day and even the mountains are convection free Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Why? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Ppp Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Do you know any good online resources to teach me how to read all the products produced by mesoanalysis. I'm tired of feeling like a toddler trying to decipher calculus Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Just from looking at the topography by you, your mean yearly rainfall has to be a few inches below KMDT from rain shadow effects Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I swear, anytime we get a general south/north motion in summer we end up with efficient rain producers and more training issues than not. I also think the reason that storm a few weeks ago that hit us from the North East caused so much tree damage, aside from hail, was the wind direction being so unique and trees that are weaknesses from winds in that direction being exposed for the first time in a long while. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

These little showers are quite tropical Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Unfortunately it looks like we will be on edge if that hits us at all. Pre's are what rain dreams are made of Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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EPS Thru July 1st Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

0.45" this morning bringing my total since late Wednesday to 0.82". Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Monday is looking more and more like a legit severe threat Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Warm front is still in southern Virginia. Richmond winds just shifted to more south finally Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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For context KMDT had 16 precipitation days (>=0.01") in June 1972. With the forecast I'll probably meet or best that number this month. But instead of 18.55" I'll be lucky to break 3". Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk