Jns2183

We truly need either cut off tropical remnants or be in the circle of fire location where we get overnight MCS for like a week straight. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Only possible rain I see isn't until June 6th Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The NAM is by itself Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I can definitely see us losing the record due to some random that dumps only on the airport Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It seems Tuesday into Wednesday would be time period Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

More records Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Columbia south Carolina currently is at 52 degrees Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How depressed are temperatures? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This has been a very very different spring going into start of summer than I remember for the past 25 years. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We set records "25/12Z PIT sounding this morning (0.73" observed on the 25/00Z release; 0.26" is the current daily record low pWAT value that is in jeopardy). * Update * PWAT on this morning`s 12Z KPBZ sounding was an incredible 0.19". Bone dry for late May in this part of the country." Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If we do this truly CTP style we get stuck at 62, overcast, maybe a spritz. A true memorial weekend screw job to equal this winter. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

"Anomalous +1-2SD MSLP Canadian high pressure will sink south from Ontario into the Great Lakes today. Very dry air will accompany the seasonably strong anticyclone with pWAT values -2 to -3SD below the mean. To put the dry air into more context, there is the potential to set a daily record low pWAT on the 25/12Z PIT sounding this morning (0.73" observed on the 25/00Z release; 0.26" is the current daily record low pWAT value that is in jeopardy)." Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

In our great debate regarding our local climate admist our great drought lots of banter was exchanged regarding changes in our local rainfall. Some thought this drought was the new normal, others that our rainfall was feast or famine, along with various other theories. So I decided, on my day off today, to try to start answering that question. The weather station at kmdt has been in same place since 10/1/1991. So using NOAA climate viewer website I downloaded daily summaries specificaly regarding precipitation from 1/1/1992 through 12/31/2022, a good 31 years. I filtered out all dates below 0.01" qpf, then through a formula assigned each event a bin number, starting with 1 going through 21, associated with 0.25" stepwise increase up to 5", with last bin any events that produced 5"+ a year. Thus I know a table showing how many of each rainfall bin occurred in each year, qpf sum for each bin/each year along with average amounts. I will post tables tomorrow but in summary: - Rainfall events - the ratio of sum of all - we underestimate just how dry 1992-2001 was and just how wet 2002-2022 were. Comparing those time periods we on average have seen 12 more events per year since 2002 then we saw from 1992-2001 - more events leads to more chance for big events. For events >1.00" the average yearly count from 1/1/92 through 12/31/2001 was 8.8. 1/1/02 through 12/31/2011 was 12. 1/1/2012 through 12/31/2022 was 10.7. I need to still look more in depth regarding distributions of the events greater than 1", but due to small numbers I might have to expand data set, but that involves ingesting numbers from previous official locations, like capital city. I also want to look more into month specific breakdowns. My best guess is that the only proven trend regarding precipitation I've seen is it has been raining more days and also more yearly. Probably not as extreme as it seems compared records from the whole official records going back to 1889 due to location changes and equipment sensitivity but still substantial. The raise in average low temperatures provide further proof of the increased moisture. Regardless of how many days it rains, the distribution is remarkably stable regarding what percentage of those events are above or below 1". A combination of increased moisture in atmosphere and rainy period has lead to those greater than 1" days producing more rain, maybe psychologically even more than substantially. This year has been a throwback to the 2001 and prior eras and the difference between this year, last year somewhat vs last 20 year and recentcy bias make a bad combination. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Was it lauxmont farms? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Where was your wedding yesterday afternoon? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

For Harrisburg. How far back would you trust record keeping? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The last 20 years have been the wettest 20 years on record by wide margin. What you might see is more extreme swings but overall wetter. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What did MDT record today? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

From 10/26/1908 till 9/15/1909 Harrisburg did not accumulate more than 1" of rain in any day. 325 days Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Don't give up on that soaker late month yet Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Rainfall in those months went from 11.17 to 13.18 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Mean Max Jun - Aug 1889-1950 82.3 1951-2000 83.7 2001-2022 84.5 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Mean Min Temp Years: Jun, July, Aug, J - A 1889-1950: 61, 65.6, 63.8, 63.5 1951-2000: 60.9, 65.8, 64.2, 63.6 2001-2022: 63.1, 68.1, 66.8, 66.0 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Drops Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We will be lucky for drops tomorrow Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk