Jns2183

I think I have the flu. Whatever just hit me in the last hour has me laying in my bathroom floor, with pillows, blankets, far too sick to move. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I thought this was worthy of bringing to attention. The cold in Canada currently is crazy. Coldest temperatures in 50 years!!! Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Also if anyone has any weird data analysis requests, I have time to handle it the next few days. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Is anyone else here extremely interested in how the AI models handle this vs the normal models vs the forecasters? I think this is great little litmus test. A rare event without many analogs. If anything I can think this maybe where AI shines. If we know CTP they will wait till writing is on the wall with this. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

People see this and think the lesser values mean change to rain when in fact it means glacier Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

My stepdad just got home from Incheon yesterday. They have great beef dishes, and 7 shots at dinner, all toasting, is apparently the norm there for business. Apparently bull are a delicacy. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

People would pay good money to drive on the other holes Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This little storm Friday could be our own little Christmas miracle. Not many times forcast goes from a wee bit balmy 59 to 29 in a matter of days. Hopefully the rug isn't pulled from us. It's been a rough few winters around here. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'll take a beautiful ice storm from my childhood. Back in the 90s and early 2000s it seemed like we would get at least two per winter, if not more. I remember some real bad ones too. I also remember some sleet bombs that produced pure cement, and if you waited an hour to long to shovel at storms end you would be out there with a chisel due to cold in Washington behind the system turning everything into an iceberg. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Just about their frustration with mid range quality Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I've never seen meteorologists so angry over models, as they currently are over Friday. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It's 32 and slippery in Camp Hill Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I wouldn't expect anything more than CAD doing its thing. Snow, no; Ice, yes Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

How's our Quebec low this run vs prior? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Seems we are in a bit of uncharted territory here with the analogs. I wonder what the AI's take is with this. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I thought you might appreciate this swipe at models Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It's been 60-70 around Xmas here a few times. That a torch Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Beautiful little band Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Nice snow burst Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Is it going to snow or evaporate? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Forgot the snow opportunity vs snow anamoly plot Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Something I've been working on regarding the past 5 winters On the FWL partial-regression plot, both axes are residuals after removing Tmax anomaly (so “warm vs cold days” isn’t driving the picture anymore). X-axis (Opportunity residual): how much more/less precipitation fell on cold + marginal days than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly. Y-axis (Snow residual): how much more/less snowfall you got than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly. So the four quadrants are: Quadrant I: +X, +Y Storms timed cold, and snow overperformed. Precip showed up in the cold/marginal window and turned into snow efficiently. Think: clean cold-air setups, good snow ratios, minimal mixing. Quadrant II: −X, +Y Not much cold-timed precip, but snow still overperformed. This is “few chances, big payoff” month: one or two big events, banding, lake enhancement, or unusually high snow-to-liquid ratios made snow punch above its weight. Quadrant III: −X, −Y Storms missed the cold window, and snow underperformed. Classic fail mode: precip skewed warm (rain/mix), or it was just dry when it was cold. Quadrant IV: +X, −Y You had “opportunity,” but snow still underperformed. This is the interesting one: precip landed on days whose daily average looked cold enough, yet accumulation didn’t happen. Common culprits: warm layer aloft (sleet/freezing rain/rain even if surface avg looks cold), warm ground/roads (especially early season), heavy precip falling during the warmest hours, wet/compact snow measuring low. How to read distance from the origin Far right: storms favored cold/marginal timing a lot. Far left: storms favored warm timing a lot. Far up: snow efficiency/event structure boosted totals. Far down: mixing/ground warmth/timing within the day suppressed totals. What happened each winter (Dec–Mar totals) Winter 2021 (snow anomaly +7.5") Precip anomaly: +0.27" (near normal) Cold precip fraction: 0.34 Timing shift: +2.00" (precip aligned with actual-cold days more than the climo window) Translation: good storm alignment with cold snaps. Winter 2022 (snow anomaly −12.2") Precip anomaly: −3.16" (dry hurt you) Cold days were actually higher than the climo window (43 vs 38), but… Cold precip fraction: 0.18 Timing shift: −1.96" (precip skewed warm relative to climo-cold calendar days) Translation: cold existed, but storms arrived when it was too warm, plus it was drier overall. Winter 2023 (snow anomaly −22.6") Precip anomaly: −2.17" Cold precip fraction: 0.03 (basically none) Timing shift: −2.20" Translation: storms mostly missed the freezing window entirely. This is the clearest “bad timing” winter. Winter 2024 (snow anomaly −9.8") Precip anomaly: +4.55" (very wet) Cold precip fraction: 0.09 Timing shift: −4.22" (largest warm-skew) Translation: a rain winter. Tons of water, almost all delivered on warm days. Winter 2025 (snow anomaly −13.1") Precip anomaly: −3.85" (very dry) Cold days were much higher than climo (53 vs 38) Timing shift: +0.18" (near zero) Translation: timing wasn’t the main villain. You had cold, but not enough moisture. Biggest positive snow months: Feb 2021: +10.3" snow anomaly with +1.75" precip anomaly and 1.70" precip on observed-cold days. Dec 2020 (Winter 2021’s Dec): +7.3" snow anomaly with decent cold-precip alignment Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

1.5-2" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Miler b always increase risk of heartache in this area Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk