Jns2183

It's been 60-70 around Xmas here a few times. That a torch Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Beautiful little band Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Nice snow burst Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Is it going to snow or evaporate? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Forgot the snow opportunity vs snow anamoly plot Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Something I've been working on regarding the past 5 winters On the FWL partial-regression plot, both axes are residuals after removing Tmax anomaly (so “warm vs cold days” isn’t driving the picture anymore). X-axis (Opportunity residual): how much more/less precipitation fell on cold + marginal days than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly. Y-axis (Snow residual): how much more/less snowfall you got than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly. So the four quadrants are: Quadrant I: +X, +Y Storms timed cold, and snow overperformed. Precip showed up in the cold/marginal window and turned into snow efficiently. Think: clean cold-air setups, good snow ratios, minimal mixing. Quadrant II: −X, +Y Not much cold-timed precip, but snow still overperformed. This is “few chances, big payoff” month: one or two big events, banding, lake enhancement, or unusually high snow-to-liquid ratios made snow punch above its weight. Quadrant III: −X, −Y Storms missed the cold window, and snow underperformed. Classic fail mode: precip skewed warm (rain/mix), or it was just dry when it was cold. Quadrant IV: +X, −Y You had “opportunity,” but snow still underperformed. This is the interesting one: precip landed on days whose daily average looked cold enough, yet accumulation didn’t happen. Common culprits: warm layer aloft (sleet/freezing rain/rain even if surface avg looks cold), warm ground/roads (especially early season), heavy precip falling during the warmest hours, wet/compact snow measuring low. How to read distance from the origin Far right: storms favored cold/marginal timing a lot. Far left: storms favored warm timing a lot. Far up: snow efficiency/event structure boosted totals. Far down: mixing/ground warmth/timing within the day suppressed totals. What happened each winter (Dec–Mar totals) Winter 2021 (snow anomaly +7.5") Precip anomaly: +0.27" (near normal) Cold precip fraction: 0.34 Timing shift: +2.00" (precip aligned with actual-cold days more than the climo window) Translation: good storm alignment with cold snaps. Winter 2022 (snow anomaly −12.2") Precip anomaly: −3.16" (dry hurt you) Cold days were actually higher than the climo window (43 vs 38), but… Cold precip fraction: 0.18 Timing shift: −1.96" (precip skewed warm relative to climo-cold calendar days) Translation: cold existed, but storms arrived when it was too warm, plus it was drier overall. Winter 2023 (snow anomaly −22.6") Precip anomaly: −2.17" Cold precip fraction: 0.03 (basically none) Timing shift: −2.20" Translation: storms mostly missed the freezing window entirely. This is the clearest “bad timing” winter. Winter 2024 (snow anomaly −9.8") Precip anomaly: +4.55" (very wet) Cold precip fraction: 0.09 Timing shift: −4.22" (largest warm-skew) Translation: a rain winter. Tons of water, almost all delivered on warm days. Winter 2025 (snow anomaly −13.1") Precip anomaly: −3.85" (very dry) Cold days were much higher than climo (53 vs 38) Timing shift: +0.18" (near zero) Translation: timing wasn’t the main villain. You had cold, but not enough moisture. Biggest positive snow months: Feb 2021: +10.3" snow anomaly with +1.75" precip anomaly and 1.70" precip on observed-cold days. Dec 2020 (Winter 2021’s Dec): +7.3" snow anomaly with decent cold-precip alignment Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

1.5-2" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Miler b always increase risk of heartache in this area Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

The cut of gradiant for this one is going to be brutal Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Time to Chanel a great winter Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Apparently 8-4 Iowa state is opting out of Bowl game, being fine $500,000 by Big 12. Apparently players voted No as majority of them are entering transfer portal. Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Any chance you have the data in excel? Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

What's the preceiptitation forecast map Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That drought monitor has been a persistent reminder of the unspeakable beast the past 5 years. I long for the era of Lee with its decade straight of above normal preceiptitation Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The backstory how this all went down is going to be fascinating Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We need to find a great GM who can handle to boosters, NIL, the portal. I thought it was always stupid to try to find a Leonardo DaVinci who was great at all things instead of playing to strengths. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Sometimes lucky is better than competent. They supposedly had contact back and n October but he doesn't negotiate till season is over, God bless him. I secretly wonder if some people realized this and prevented kraft behind the scenes from his own stupidity. I suppose we shall see because there is definitely an amazing long jornalism piece waiting with bow tied regarding this whole shit storm. Overall I'm happy. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It's not good but dry is far worse too me Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'd rather rain than dry. Nothing is as bad as dry Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What bothered me most was the utter worthlessness of the leaker. This wasn't some high minded thing where a crime or conspiracy was revealed or prevented. It was purely spite. Someone like that shouldn't be able to say anything if someone else in that room goes about torpedoing his life secretly, it would be well deserved. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The issue is dry. We have fought dry off and on for the past 5 years. We need a shift to long term wet like we saw at the beginning of the 2010. Until then I highly doubt we sniff a big storm Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Storms seem to be missing South. Almost like the cold pushed the boundary to far Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I hope someone good who has some distance can one day write an article about the absolutely no prisoners taken war I'm hearing pieces of going on up in state college. Pulitzer prize material stuff for the right person. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Haha, no it's a very local trail. I don't have much time usually due to raising my daughter without her mom, but the days she has swimming and a friends parents car pool I jump at the chance to get out there. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It's a hiking trail in the woods. I'd need more snow to make raw dogging it up and over a mountain by compass and moonlight to be worth it Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk