Natester
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Everything posted by Natester
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Next!
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15z RAP snow totals (kuchera method). Also the precip type map at 18z Jan 1, 2022. Chicago doesn't get screwed out of the snow.
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12z RGEM snow totals (kuchera method)
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12z ICON expands the snow shield to the north although track is unchanged. Snow doesn't miss Chicago.
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12z NAM 12k shifted north big time. Has mostly rain in the Chicago area.
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0z CMC in line with the 0z NAM 12k in terms of track and snow totals.
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0z RGEM kuchera method totals. Not bad.
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0z ICON slightly north of the 18z run in terms of the snow shield but a bit south of the 0z NAM.
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Well at least the latest NAM doesn't have Cedar Rapids in the shaft. Still has about 6-7 inches in the metro according to kuchera method. This better not end up like 11/25/18 where Cedar Rapids got nothing while the county south of Cedar Rapids got several inches.
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18z GFS very slightly drier than 12z GFS. Placement of snow unchanged.
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18z RGEM jumped back north to join the NAM, EURO and GFS in terms of snow.
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ICON still south in terms of snow, a bit more south than last run. Toss.
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Chicago get's the shaft according to the Kuchera method.
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12z CMC and 12z RGEM still south and weaker. Both have the snows missing Iowa entirely.
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Everyone wins, except those in the rain/mix zone.
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0z NAM 12k a lot weaker and south.
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Kuchera ratio snow forecast totals from the 18z GFS. Hope this verifies.
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Oh I see. Thanks.
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Stupid question, but was does dab stand for? I couldn't find out what it meant on Google.
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GFS for several runs has consistently showed low end hurricane force wind gusts in a narrow band that moves east. The other models don't show gusts that high. Have to wait until it comes into range of the NAM 3k tomorrow morning and the HRRR tomorrow evening. Wouldn't be surprised to see 11/10/1998 gusts but for a much shorter duration.
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1995?
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iCyclone Josh is chasing this one along with Mark Suddoth. Several other chasers are chasing this as well.
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Here's hoping that the next recon plan won't have issues like the one plane earlier. I'll be asleep during that time so I won't know until I wake up. Should also mention that if Ida takes a direct hit on the NWS of New Orleans, there's a small possibility that Ida might destroy the WSR-88D if Ida strengthens to cat 4 or stronger.
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Hopefully the next recon mission several hours from now doesn't have the same issues.
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That reminds me, after Gustav in 2008 crossed Cuba it never got it's act together. Hoping the same for Ida although it's very unlikely.
