Natester

Just curious, did you lose power in the February 11, 2019 ice storm? With the winds expected on Saturday evening, it's not going to be good for ice laden trees and powerlines.

Speaking of that, although on a miniature scale, back on February 25 of last year, there was a frozen puddle right by the ramp out in the backyard. Some of the snow melted on February 23 of last year and then refroze as temps went below freezing. Wasn't paying attention to what I was walking on and slipped and fell and gave myself a sore back that lasted for 2 weeks. Not fun.

That and with the wind with part 2 (Saturday), there's going to be massive power outages in the corridor with siggy to extreme icing. Icing stays southeast of Cedar Rapids by about 35 miles. Might get clipped by sleet on Saturday, though.

One thing that hasn't changed is the narrow corridor from MO through SE Iowa into NW Illinois of extreme icing, although much of that is likely runoff.

0z NAM back to what it was in the 12z run, in other words, back to reality.

Freezing rain accumulation map please? If you have it, that is.

The GFS will cave once the storm gets sampled, I hope.

No change in the 18z ICON when it comes to Friday's wave.

Cyclone77 gets wrecked by ice. At least it isn't me, although might have a close call with ice for a brief time on Saturday.

Now the question is if the other models join the NAM in this new trend.

The CMC is currently the only model that has ice (not counting sleet) for a few hours in Cedar Rapids, although with falling temps, it could turn into sleet early. All the other models have either sleet or snow for here.

0z GFS just a smidge north with round one.

Someone, somewhere along a very narrow axis is going to get a crippling ice storm, especially areas close to the Mississippi River in Iowa. As for here in Cedar Rapids, it's likely going to be a sleet/snow mix unless the forecast track shifts more NW again.

12z ICON shows a HUGE sleet axis from KS to WI. 12z CMC shows roughly the same thing except not as pronounced. Very narrow axis of freezing rain in both models.

Not in the subforum but this is one of two tornado reports in central Iowa from today where temps are only at 40-42F. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 433 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2019 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0405 PM TORNADO 4 NE GUTHRIE CENTER 41.73N 94.45W 11/30/2019 GUTHRIE IA PUBLIC TWO REPORTS OF BRIEF SPIN-UP ROPE TORNADO ROUGHLY 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE CITY. DID NOT LAST LONG.

Pretty much a dry snow here, been that way for the past couple hours. Last time I saw fat flakes was around 5 PM.

Been snowing since 2 PM here. Had a brief burst of moderate snow. Temps are now below freezing based on several personal weather stations in Cedar Rapids. Personally I didn't expect temps to go below freezing this soon but that's what evaporative cooling does.

DVN just issued a WWA for 2-4 inches of snow here.

12z GFS only gives me 2.1 inches of snow. Since temps will be once again close to freezing when the snow starts, caking of the trees is inevitable once again. At least the winds will be light.

00z NAM 3k says blizzard for southeast Wisconsin and extreme northern Illinois. Going to be tons of power outages in areas where trees are caked with cement snow.

Doesn't dump quite as much snow in eastern Iowa as the 18z run did. Temps go below freezing even earlier according to the 00z NAM 3k.

On my way to work this morning, I saw some trees that had branches drooping down. All of the snow that fell last night has since melted. Any snow that falls tomorrow afternoon here will undoubtedly be wet, although the snow should be light. That changes tomorrow evening when the main show begins as temps drop below freezing, thus not causing as much problems for the leaf laden trees unless we get a few inches of concrete before the the evening.

Yeah that's going to cause widespread power outages. Likely won't be a problem here since temps will be going below freezing shortly after the snow starts, although some caking of the trees is inevitable.

00z GFS not budging one bit. Still shows the strong system scenario.

00z NAM 3k is just like the Euro and ICON, although slightly slower. Have to wait and see what the 00z GFS shows.