TJay

ah damn I didn't know you guys were here or else I would have been too. Here the precip total from the 0Z GFS.

I dont have access to the 6 hour ecmwf but if I remember correctly, yesterday it was tracking the low from the deep se due north up to NYC and then ne from there while the gfs tracked the low ne from the coast and ots . Today the ecmwf and the GFS are more or less in track agreement with the low off the mid atlantic coast and then out to the ne.

LOL! Combine the radio show and the raging weenies discussing the merits of the JMA and KMA this is a goner..... next. I think if we pick up a few inches from this we'll be lucky. I am not digging the pattern so far this year, not buying the storm making a 90 degree turn to come straight up the coast.

I try not getting pulled in to these storms unless it’s on the models a few days out. That doesn’t mean I don’t track them but the vast majority of these storms don’t occur verbatim as they were modeled 7 days out. I can live without the disruption and work heavy snow causes.

If I suffered power and heat loss like your family and others did as a result of the snowcane, that might change my mind about storms.

"Suffering from convective feedback" "Euro is king" "6Z and 18Z runs are garbage because XYZ aren’t included" "The NOGAPS, KMA, RGEM and JMA are in agreement" "Lee Goldberg's facebook page says" The modeling this week has been awful, we were spoiled last year when most storms were pretty much locked in early and often had the correct general idea. Its going to be a tuff winter. On the plus side for the model threads in the NYC/Philly section, Tombo, Radders and Earthlight and the many Mets posting real time model info and analysis has made them enjoyable and informative

You were born the year I graduated high school. I'm started to get enthused about Sunday/Monday now that we have have some major model agreement of a westward shift for the first time the week.

I was just out walking the dogs, nice & nasty 19F very windy with snow. The wind is howling overhead.

I was walking the dogs at around 12:45am, clear sky at that time. Did anyone get any freezig rain or sleet overnight? I don't think I had any. Had some rain this morning, nothing to speak of this afternoon.

Coming home from work last night I went to Middletown to shop, getting off Rt 17 at Rt 211 I was surprised to see a flizard occuring. Everything was covered with a bit of snow. Coming back home I noticed as soon as I was out of Walkill, nothing was on the ground. Friday morning low was 9F, this morning low was 20F.

Where I am, the hills are just to the west of me. The downslope levels out a bit on my property and then continues to lose elevation to the east of me. So I'm not truly in the hills valley, just a somewhat level point on its way down. The hills do play havoc with the winds, sometimes shelter me from westerly winds and other times change their direction so a westerly or NW winds becomes from the east or NE or SE.

Glad you made it

Rob elaborate more when you have the time, might be a good discussion. Thae picture kinda describes my locate, I'm on the east side of some hills.

480ft Rad cooling would have more to do with atmospheric conditions (cloud cover, wind, decoupling) then a small variation in your station location I would think. For example last night by me was cloudless and no wind perfect setup while some guys in Jersey had clouds and some snowflakes last night.

15F imby this morning.

p.s. get lug nuts

Dusting by me as well, hit light to mod snow from Harriman to Nanuet on the thurway a few inches on the ground in spots, lots of accidents delayed 45 minutes. I exited the thruway in rockland, went two blocks and no snow on the ground. Its very localized.

checked my rain gauge last night but it was frozen. I think the temp drop yesterday is going to be the most exciting thing that happens for awhile around here..

KMGJ 3pm 47F no update from KSWF Goshen HIGH 62°F at 13:55 LOW 44°F LOW 44°F at 14:53

2pm temps, KMGJ 62F wind from the south, KSWF 61F wind from the south SE private station at Montague, NJ (east of Milford PA) temp 43F wind NNW OCESC in Goshen look at this drop with winds NNW HIGH 62°F at 13:55 LOW 51°F LOW 51°F at 14:09

61F at 1pm @ KMGJ and KSWF. looking to the west the average temp drop is around 20 degrees one or two hours after FROPA

Seen a report earlier today from law enforcement in West Milford NJ of one fatality one injury, tree fell on car. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1247 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 145 PM EST... * AT 1242 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILFORD TO 20 MILES WEST OF HOPATCONG TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

Rough ride on Rt17 and Thruway this morning. near zero vis at times in heavy sheets of rain and high wind gusts.

I'm not loseing sleep over this yet .