Jackstraw

APN 72" ORD 30" CLE 91" CMH 27" DET 41" FWA 36" GRR 75" GRB 49" IND 31" LSE 31" YXU 64" SDF 14" MQT 212" MSP 30" MLI 34" PAH 22" PIA 20" STL 16" YYZ 46" Tiebreakers 1. December 2018 snowfall ORD 4.5" 2. January 2019 snowfall IND 12" 3. February 2019 snowfall DTW 10.5"

From Greenville/Spartenburg AFD today. They seem to be biting hard on it, even referencing the GFS>AVN protoype. Say it aint so Joe, don't think I can handle the SE getting a big dog before my grass even gets covered again this year. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday: Confidence is increasing on a potential major winter storm event next weekend. The 12z global models and ensembles all agree on the general set up. A split flow regime across the CONUS to start the medium range, with progressing from the Northern Plains to New England, while a southern stream trough enters southern California. Confluent flow between the two troughs will allow a fairly strong area of high pressure to drop south into the Midwest Thursday into Friday. Below normal temps are expected, with a reinforcing dry cold front pushing thru the area. By Friday evening, the high will migrate to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes (still around 1038 mb). The high will be elongated east- west, with the eastern edge of the air mass spilling into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the California trough will eject to the Southern Plains and induce a sfc low along a baroclinic zone along the TX/LA coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on isent lift and frontogenesis spreading moisture and QPF north and east of the low into the cold air across the Southeast states. This should diabatically enhance classic cold air damming across the Carolinas, bringing in even colder air. Using the p-type nomograms with a blend of GFS/ECWMF, it still looks like a mixed-bag of p-types, at least on the onset. The high terrain looks to be cold enough to be pretty much all snow. However, as the low reaches the GA/FL coasts in Miller-A fashion, the p-type looks to become more of a ra/sn event, with the position of the ra/sn line still in question. The 12z ECMWF and the FV3-GFS have come in colder and suggest that even the Upstate and Charlotte areas may see a lot of the QPF as sleet and snow. Storm total QPF of 1-2" certainly suggests that whoever gets wintry precip will see warning criteria accums. There is still plenty of time for the details to change. So for the time being, readers keep abreast of the latest information on the winter storm potential next weekend.

GFS has a bit of a severe look out in fantasy land around the 1st - 2nd. All I have to look at right now lol.

Univ WS Blog on the remnants http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/?s=florence

Lot of buoys in shallower water closer to the coast showing a 1-2 degree, upwards to 8 or 9 degree drop in water temp in the last 24 hours. Some up welling and maybe some freshwater runoff.

Looking like signs of an inner and outer wind maxima

I think we could go sub 950 during this recon pass

Nice burst of convection wrapping around the center with overshooting tops. Cloud temps approaching -70 now. Think she just belched.

Starting to see some cool mesos in the eye like we saw with Harvey on Radar. And from the last hour of radar scans it looks like its just about stalled.

Cloud pattern is looking better. Southern outflow is expanding. Also seems to really be slowing down now. Although not deep she's sitting over some high octane rocket fuel.. She got displaced from the upper ridge that was over the top but it may be re-establishing itself from CIMMS wind analysis.

As far as current steering goes it's a quagmire ...

Pretty crazy stuff from the KILM Disco.... This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the Carolina coast, and that`s saying a lot given the impacts we`ve seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, and Matthew. I can`t emphasize enough the potential for unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding with this storm.

Well Ryan said google it lol. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arabian_Peninsula_tropical_cyclones That would be an amazing sight especially just after landfall. I wonder if there is plant/animal(not necessarily multi cell) life in the area that lays dormant until such an event happens.

We packed a tent and coolers and headed out Saturday morning with an idea but no plan. I had been watching the forecast and far western KY kept improving. Finally chose to go "somewhere" East of the Shawnee National Forest in IL across the river in KY for a few reasons. It was fairly close for us to drive, 300 or 400 miles. The forecast was giving us a better than 80% chance of no clouds. There's really nothing in that area but hills, farm land and little KY towns pretty spaced apart . There's only a couple of places to cross the Ohio to get into that area and they're about 50 miles apart. So I figured fairly remote, if the clouds role in to the NW in the center of the Carbondale madness, the 2 bridges are going to bottleneck the crazies trying to make a mad dash to find the sun, then that area would be a perfect place to enjoy it and not have the crowds or madness. Military strategy, we had a good defense in that area lol. Question was where to camp? Not knowing the area very well and unbeknownst to me, my girl got on FB and started searching for some folks in that area. Lo and behold she started up a conversation with a wonderful couple who had a big plot of wooded land right in the general area we were targeting.. After she spoke with them on the phone and turned on her charm they said we could camp there under the condition it was just us. They were really concerned about their property and the hype of the tons of people flowing into the Carbondale Hopkinsville corridor. We assured them it was just us and we would gladly pay and take care of their property like it was our own. Still hesitant they wouldn't tell us exactly where it was at, they just said call when we cross the Ohio. When my girl told me I said hey, we either got a place to camp or we're gonna be on one of those real life mystery crime documentary's! So we headed out and along the way we planned our escape for after the eclipse kind of making notes for escape routes if we got stuck in traffic. Regardless it all worked out great when we got down there, the folks were awesomely gracious and we all hit it off and had a blast. Come to find out they wanted to experience it in a similar manner as we did. Alone and reflective with someone you care about. I had targeted the area south of Morganfield KY and thats where we ended up. about 5 miles from the center line. The trip back wasn't bad. It really paid off taking some time to plan escape routes. We didn't spend more than 10 miles on any road with an "I" in front on the way back. Hardest parts of the trip home were the Ohio and Wabash river crossings, definitely bottle necked at both. But as soon as we crossed we hit the secondary's and the thirdendary's and even fourthendaiy's lol. Think storm chasing experience helped, the escape plans, plus two of us sharing the navigating and driving was a plus. It truly was an awe inspiring experience, well worth the minor headaches here and there on the road. I really can't add much more than what other's have already said about the actual event other than as awesome as it was, it was truly humbling at the same time. Really put's you in your place in this vast universe. Oh, and during totality , seeing it in person the pure 3 dimensional view really stood out. Pictures and video cannot reproduce that. Amazing! Besides the Eclipse we really did meet some great new friends and hope to spend some time with them again soon and repay their hospitality. Truly wonderful and memorable all around.

I'm supposed to drive up to Norwalk Ohio leaving North Central In. at 4am Monday. I usually take 69 and cut over on 30 then back North. Any guesses on if the roads will be passable if this thing pans out?