Jackstraw

I'm trying not to complain, Ive had 2 decent systems, better than Ive had in 4 or 5 years, in the last 2 weeks. But the torch, 45 degrees and rain, today wiped out an 8 inch pack. Climo in my area doesn't favor big dogs but even when I get a semi big one I get the 850 blues after (cue Lightnin Hopkins). With a forecast clipper choo choo coming there's still hope for a decent pack for a few weeks. We usually do well ridin' the train. I'm going to give a mid-winter B- so far.

Back to normal lol

There's gonna be a late night surprise for some

The defo band that just left here is barely 20 miles to my east. I just spent 2 hours with 4 dogs in my old truck 420 with Cold Rain and Snow cranked driving around in it because well I'm just an idiot. It's got the potential to drop 4 inches in a couple hours. Don't be discouraged points east, especially if this thing starts phasing. Models be damned, there's gonna be some decent totals in Central Ohio somewhere. But more than that, this damn wind is keeping it snowing after it stops lol

I totally agree!

Lol, its coming your way trust me. May not be the high end totals but it's coming. The lasting power of the warm layer is pretty fascinating. Edit: The ridge is 15 to 20 mb's weaker than modeled earlier in the week also.

I can tell you the rural areas around here are going downhill fast. In town not so bad but all roads are snow/ice shellacked now. We've had maybe 1 1.5 inches of snow but there are 2 foot drifts on the roads (we still had about 3 inch snow pack but it was crusted on top). WSW in this area are definitely warranted if for nothing else just the blowing snow and the borderline warning criteria ice from earlier. I think the defo is going to perform at least for areas to my E and SE from radar and sat WV. Might even get me something decent as the cold air isn't really crashing in like I thought it would. At least in my area anyone bitching just hasn't been out in this. and here we should have 4 or 5 hours to go. Very impressive and under modeled WAA with this thing IMHO. Those that get under the sweet spot where it begins to stop (NE IN/NW OH?) will be happy.

Plumes spitting out 8 inches for Muncie . IWX still somewhat confident on some heavy snows tonight.... Storm total amounts will vary quite a bit across the area. Areas across southern Lower Michigan received around 6 inches of snow last night with the leading mid level warm advection/fgen band last night, and added several additional inches today. Another area of max storm totals will likely orient along and southeast of a line from roughly southeast of a line from Wauseon, OH to Fort Wayne, IN to Marion, IN. Depending on band evolution cannot discount possibility of some reports over 10 inches for the extreme southeast across northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio along and south of Route 24.

As was said f#$k this storm lol...

Part 2 setting up in southern IL along the IL/IN border. There's still hope

I'm going to take an armchair guess and it was something that concerned me all week I don't think the globals were handling the convection down south and the heat content being pumped up from the gulf very well. that's why we would see a run with 6 inches then a run with 15 then a run with 6. Like Buckeye when I saw that NAM run it really perked my ears. It is the NAM, but it usually sniffs out the WAA pretty well. On top of that the globals never got their shit together on where and when any phasing would occur, a lot of that due to not handling the heat pump from the south well in the first place. Plus no full sampling of the SW until less than 24 hours out really didn't help either. I never fully bought into this storm as soon as I saw it go from progressive to a late cutter. I did expect a little more than what I've gotten and definitely didn't expect the amount of ice here over 1/4 inch. It's not over by any means and I think points to my east should do fairly well as the evening progresses. Just my weenie thoughts

Nah, I'd bet your good for 4 to 6. Think the cutoff is gonna be from an Indy to Muncie line. As Jay said that cold air is going to come in like a rocket, already is on meso analysis, and be a liitle too much too late for me. Your closer to the energy and should get a couple more hours of snow than I will

We could very well end up with more ice and sleet than snow here. the bulk of the defo looks like it could cut to the se Haven't had a flake yet. The only blowing anything we might get are transformers lol.

Blizzard to Blizzturd... tonight on 60 Minutes Investigates

Southern convection I tell ya. Some of the models leave the china on the table some don't when the table cloth is pulled

Hate to keep beatin a dead horse but I told ya the weather around here will put you in the loony bin lol.

That just chopped me off at the knees

Yes been waiting for his post all day. How longs it been for thunder snow for you? If I could get in on that it'd be like my 100 year old grandpa gettin' some lol.

The GFS has jumped way south and way up with snow totals in the last 24 hrs. The "mystereee" continues. I'm shutting the model pages off at 00Z. They're reminding me of the 'ol lady going through the change lol. *Edited for dyslexia

Is that where the FV3 lives? lol..

Their Point and Click forecast has 3-5 during the day tomorrow and 3-5 more tomorrow night.

It's a bit of an outlier with those totals but I've got to give it a tip of the hat because of it's performance last week. Heck the 18Z HRRR is dropping a foot on Bloomington lol.

You may not have "kissed" something but those 850's are giving you a big fat one. on that run lol. Speaking of which that initial narrow band right along I70, is that a bit of an 850 Fgen band? I seem to remember one of the AFD's mentioning that last night.

Southern convection messing with all of them

Just 5 more miles NW please, is that asking for too much?....