Jackstraw

It's the Ides of March for me and that's tomorrow so yeah bring it!

Not quite sure where you're at but sand bars are created by rivers and especially floods? That logic as stated doesn't make sense to me. I've been told my area doesn't get tornadoes as much as surrounding areas because we're in a valley. Yeah my area was a bit of a low lying swampy area 200 years ago and yeah our elevation is maybe 50 to 100 feet lower than the surrounding areas and there's ancient river beds around here but that ain't why tornadoes haven't struck here lol.

I'd be really surprised if the one west of Columbus doesn't have one on the ground.

That cell over Joliet has some rotation.

One things for sure these are "chasers", meaning they're going to chase you. That storm up by Sheridan IN has to cooking along at 70.

KPAH been busy they were averaging a sev/tor warning every 7 or 8 min between 8 and 10:30

Maybe this will work lol... Tornado Warning ILC105-141615- /O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0001.190314T1553Z-190314T1615Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 1053 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Livingston County in central Illinois... * Until 1115 AM CDT * At 1053 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Pontiac, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Odell around 1105 AM CDT. Dwight around 1115 AM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Cornell. Including the following interstate... I-55 between mile markers 194 and 218.

We hit 68 but it took FOREVER to get there. It was chilly until about 1-2pm. Can't wait until 50's in the am then pushing mid 70's in the afternoon. That's a perfect day temp wise IMO and a stretch of that is a real Spring. Might have that tomorrow but with rain, This 45/25 crap with wind coming up for the weekend and beyond sucks.

A few models had this last low sub 980 3-5 days out only to adjust as it crashed onshore. I do hope this pattern can stick around as we enter spring though.

I must confess, I went out and "chased" that little line. First gust front, nice little light show and some pea sized hail mixed in! Man if we can some systems this dynamic in early spring with 60 to 70 degree surface temps woohoo!

May not be severe but a nice little line moving through central IN. I'm ready to kick off the chase season

Clearing in S IL has let surface temps jump 10 degrees in the last couple of hours could help w/ instability issues.

Cell west of ST Louis starting to show some rotation

Couple discreet cells west of ST Louis riding the warm front intensifying. Getting my first thunder of the year here at 36 degrees lol. Damn inversion!

HRRR has been consistent in bringing a bit of a TOR threat into central IL along the northern section of the cold front close to the low.

Theta-E keeps nudging North. It won't take a lot of increase in instability to maybe get some things going in the far southern parts of the sub. The window of time may be fairly short..... NAM sounding around EVV late tomorrow afternoon... Interesting UH map from 12Z 3K NAM. HRRR very similar.....

From 3-5 to nothing in 24 hrs. From Stebo's quote below this little system was the proverbial bird fart lmao!

Was tongue in cheek that Thurs was the last one of the season

Yeah the midweek system seems to have better "prep" so to speak.

I hope the NAM is right then I'm done w/ winter

Nice model battle setting up for the Thurs\Fri system in IA and central IL/IN/OH. GFS/FV3/12kNAM all with advisory level 3-5 inches (up to warning criteria in IA), GEM/3KNAM/EURO with a whiff. IA gets the most love from all of them, imagine that!

Since I had so much success with my first winter thread maybe I'll start one for this now lol...

The FV3 says nope! lol

That's certainly a deep low being forecast by the models ATM, GFS down into the 970's as it cuts through IA/WI. While instability is currently lacking as forecast atm, SRH seems pegged and aligned and as Southern said Kinematics are there if can overcome the shear. I'd like to see it slow down some, dig a little farther in the plains and get a little more time with a southerly surface flow from the gulf, currently models are showing cool E/SE flow up to and inside 24hrs It should be coming onshore tomorrow so we'll see where and get a better feel for the strength. Regardless up here as Indy said it could very well get interesting in far southern parts of the sub.

Do some core samples so we can understand how to have an epic winter everywhere lol.