Jackstraw

KIND disco... Once the first batch of convection shifts east with the deeper moisture plume and low level jet core however...numerous signs point to a more conducive atmosphere for severe convection within a window encompassing late afternoon into the early evening along and immediately ahead of the cold front. Boundary layer flow while not as strong as earlier in the day remains supportive for renewed convective development. Diffluence aloft will enhance with the arrival of the negatively tilted upper trough and a weak upper jetlet will be in an ideal location to enhance convective redevelopment. Of noted interest is the hint of a small wave developing along the front by early evening which could conceivably produce a short period with backed boundary layer flow and consequently an axis of stronger BL shear and helicity immediately ahead of the front. The lack of deeper moisture by late afternoon may be a mitigating factor at least from a coverage standpoint but CAPES levels to 1000 J/KG or greater would likely be enough instability to generate a broken line of convection ahead of the front...something being suggested by several of the CAMs. While the setup is not nearly as clean as desired...the primary severe weather threat will likely reside within this 4-6 hour window from mid afternoon into the early evening as the initial batch of convection shifts east followed by the broken line of convection ahead of the frontal boundary. While damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat considering the stronger flow in the upper levels of the boundary layer...large hail and a few tornadoes remain a possibility considering the increase in directional shear setting up just ahead of the cold front.

Hope we can get the cloud cover from the first line of storms to clear out before the secondary line gets going tomorrow. The timing of these things has sucked for Central IN as of late.

There still some good rotation on radarscope. Its pretty close to the radar. Last few visible shots of this line showed some really strong updrafts with overshooting tops.

That same cell is N of Terre Haute now and warned again with numerous reports of a wall cloud. It's pretty much on its own now.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-central and northeast Illinois West-central and northwest Indiana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small linear bowing cluster may continue southeast along the Illinois and Indiana border region this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and severe hail are the primary hazards, although a brief tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Valparaiso IN to 30 miles south southeast of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

I'm just about done bitching about Spring. The one week of it we've had! With 80's maybe 90 looming I'm ready for the summer thread so I can't bitch about the end of May cool down popping up lol. I'll take a return to the March April pattern from June to September in a heartbeat. Be like living in Hawaii.

00Z HRRR took a rather ominous turn continuing the threat into central IN. Has some support from the 00Z HRW circus as well as the RAP. This pattern over the next 48 hours seems a little strange to me for May. Almost a quasi August ridge riding pattern with a cold front kicking in behind. Lucy and Charlie? lol

Yep the forecast Sat. was rather gloomy keeping us on the cool side of the systems coming through with lots of rain. As you said models have slowly shifted north and also increasing our temps especially at night. If that pans out think the next 7 days could be good shrooming albeit wet! Thinking about heading up to Missenewa and Salomonie Friday.

With the big late season snow just to the North I don't know if I'm jealous or pi$#%d. Jealous cause I'm not in on the extreme event. Pi$%#d cause this weather pattern is royally screwing my shroom season!

I can confirm!! lol. These cold nights are killing us. But at least we're not getting what the folks up North are

And the saga of misery continues around here... Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 48. Light north northeast wind becoming northwest 8 to 13 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Friday Showers likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 61. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 40. West northwest wind 7 to 15 mph. Saturday A 50 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 57. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming south in the afternoon. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 41. South southeast wind around 16 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Sunday A 30 percent chance of showers before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Monday Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 51. Wednesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Wednesday Night A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Thursday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.

It's the hot dense exhaust gasses from Jet engines traversing the -30 degree air in the stratosphere. Kinda like taxi cab tail pipes in NYC in Jan.

First trip shrooming this morning. Think these chilly sub 50 nights are going to delay the season a bit around here. Few and far between and itty bitty. They are cashing in south of I-70 right now but there's been a good 10 degree temp differential between the south and north sides especially at night with these stalling fronts bisecting the state. Strange thing though. The ground cover seems as thick as it usually is around the first week of May but the bushes and trees are just starting to leave. Normally have more leaf when the ground cover is this thick, May Apples are knee high already. Measured soil temps in spots averaged around 48 to 52 degrees so still a bit cool. Need some consistent 50- 60 degree evenings with these temps only in the high 60's in daytime forecast for the next week.

Rub it in lol. We've had 3 miserable days of cold rain and wind. Frost, wind then temps from morning 30's to mid 60's by late tomorrow afternoon, 70 on Monday and then rain Monday night thru Thursday. Light at the end of the tunnel is for the first time in I don't know how long we might get 3 straight days after that dry and sunny, over a weekend no less! We are definitely overdue for a reasonable weather stretch. I'll take boring for a week right now lol. It's just not fare you get an epic winter and then a spring to boot. Jealous? Hell ya!

If, if, if surface temps were about 5 degrees cooler we might have gotten 20 inches. That trowal has been on top of us for 14 freakin hours with freezing levels all the way down to 925 mb. Ice cold rain since 4am non-stop . I can see why the naive NAM was fooled lol.

Just downright stubborn lol ....

Now I'm really going to be p^&s$d off if 20 miles SE of me gets 22 inches and I get nada!! Edit: NAM be smoking some Freeway Rick product lol.

Yeah, it's been hanging out with Randle McMurphy. That would be the coup of the decade if that insanity actually happens..

Yeah nws in Jackson is sheltering in place

KIND's short term disscussion describes it pretty well around here... miserable lol.... .SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/... Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Miserable might be the best term to describe the bulk of the weather expected through the short term period. The approaching upper trough today will amplify Friday with an upper low closing off over the Tennessee Valley. As this feature wobbles into the Ohio Valley through late Saturday. The aforementioned surface wave near Cincinnati Friday morning will spin just east of the forecast area in response to the strengthening upper low before both features kick out to the northeast Saturday night. This will place central Indiana on the northwest side of the system throughout much of the period and all but ensures two sloppy days for much of the area. The northwest shift to the track of the upper low in the guidance would suggest continued unsettled weather Friday into Saturday with an increasing likelihood of a renewed period of widespread and steady rainfall likely focused from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning as a persistent mid level deformation axis parks over the region and interacts with a strong E/NE low level flow pulling around the northern side of the system. Still discrepancies between where specifically the axis of steadiest rainfall will set up...but higher pops are warranted for much of the area late Friday through the first half of Saturday. While precip water values will fall back...the forcing aloft will compensate and likely enable some locations to pick up potentially an additional inch of rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Colder air will continue to advect into the region courtesy of the strong northerly flow that will persist throughout much of the short term. This will produce a period of chilly..raw and otherwise miserable weather conditions Friday into at least the first half of Saturday. The other potential impact is that the boundary layer may cool enough late Friday night and Saturday to support some wet snowflakes mixing in with rain... especially where the mid level forcing is strongest. Surface temperatures will remain well above freezing and rates are not expected to cause any issues whatsoever. But...its the potential for snowflakes on April 20 which will just add to the misery of the weather conditions.

HRRR has been on its own bringing some instability into northern IN and SEMI late morning/early afternoon, even down into west central IN early morning tomorrow. Looks like it hangs the warm front just south of Lake Erie but still lets it pivot up the west side with some short term decent daytime heating reflected in surface LI's. It's kinda by itself model wise not much to hang your hat on but a better hat rack than I have lol. I've always wondered if a warm front gets hung up by a cold lake on one end but can continue unimpeded like around the west end of Erie if that couldn't enhance that small area of the warm front giving it additional lift over the cooler lake air. Just my arm chair take.

Any shot we would've had would've been with the cold front and since its coming through in the wee hours of the morning not much of a chance of anything significant. Really need some decent daytime heating/good timing or some anomalistic kinematic forcing with these early Spring systems to throw some atmospheric fat lighter in and get it started. I'd like a shot to break daytime cap over in these parts but with stagnated cirro-stratus moisture over a meager boundary layer until nightfall we're proverbially screwed with the current pattern. Late March/April sun angle is a 2 edged sword The timing of these systems has been crazy clockwork lately to the downside, at least around here.

Bad timing for us here in central IN once again with night time passing of the best dynamics.. Although 12Z HRRR Hodo's showing marginal Tor risk in west central IN early morning.

Yeah, nice today and nice tomorrow then chance of rain and 50's for 6 of the next 7 days