Jackstraw

Rub it in all of ya still 93/75 here lol

That means I have another day to wait

Mesoscale Discussion 1546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois and Chicagoland Area Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201859Z - 202100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...As thunderstorms/outflow near northern Illinois, intense convection is possible given the extreme buoyancy in the area. Uncertainty remains as to how far south ongoing/newly developing convection will push into northern Illinois. A WW is possible should convective trends become more clear. DISCUSSION...A relatively narrow corridor of undisturbed airmass remains in far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F to low 90s F with dewpoints holding in the upper 70s F. Two ongoing linear segments in southwestern and southeastern Wisconsin will likely continue to sag slowly southward with time. Given the extreme buoyancy -- MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg -- intense convection is possible with damaging winds being the primary threat. With the low-level shear vector oriented nearly parallel to the outflow, it is uncertain how much development will occur southward into Illinois. However, HCRs are currently visible on visible satellite imagery in northeastern Illinois. Even subtle lift from the outflow boundary may allow parcels to reach their LFC. A WW is possible should trends reveal convection is more likely. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019

Gusted t0 45 last i heard

That tornado is about 15 miles north of the airshow.

Oshkosh air show could get a little crazy this morning with pilots trying to beat any weather coming in. If you get hot and bored today you can listen and watch some of the arrivals here....... https://www.liveatc.net/hlisten.php?mount=kosh3 https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-webcams/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=73424B0E16414774A6AF336DECC455B9&_z=z

https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-webcams/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=73424B0E16414774A6AF336DECC455B9&_z=z

Be interesting to see how far south this gets. S MI has some steep lapse rates going on. The western flank is stronger and further south than I thought it would be.

A bit of a bookend was trying to form on the NE edge

Tomorrow and Sunday are the big fly in days. I believe you can arrive as early as yesterday (I arrived on Wed. in 94 assisting a flight school vendor). Like any other airport if they would get raked by 70 80 mph winds or even a tornado there could be damage especially with all of the vendor displays setup. But on the other hand they are very very organized (no matter what it seems like on youtube lol) and very prepared. There's a dedicated NWS website for the airport up right now and pilots are pointed to it in the NOTAM. I certainly wouldn't have flown in today with the forecast that was out this morning. These guys are flying mostly light aircraft under VFR conditions so they should be in the habit of checking weather to avoid violating the law. On another note tomorrow and Sunday could be really busy and exciting, nothing funner than flying into the busiest airport in the world on a busy day.

Been partly cloudy all day with spotty fair weather cumulus and a decent 10-15 mph breeze with gusts so it really wasn't that bad around here. I thought yesterday was more oppressive with no wind. Currently 92/75/105

Didn't say it was set it stone, was pointing out the model runs and its obvious local forecast offices aren't totally buying into it. GFS does have some support from the Euro albiet 1 or 2 degrees cooler. 12Z runs are even cooler after this Sunday and don't have me at 80 until next Sunday. 7 straight days of high 60's warming to high 70's, rain or no rain, with lows in the low 50's warming to low 60's is a bit anomalous for my area in late July. Once again didn't say it was going to happen.

This isn't pretty normal at 6pm for July in my area....

Don't know much about it but this is one of the higher VTP's I've seen on SPC Meso, right over Minneapolis....

Ya mean like this? Yikes

00Z models temp runs over the next 10 days are pretty crazy for July if they are to be believed. Both GFS and EURO has me at 67 at 6pm Mon. possibly hitting 50 early Tues. morning. Except for next Sat, it could be downright chilly with highs of 80 and lows in the high 50's low 60's on average and dew's getting as low as high 40's. Yeah, it's this kind of stuff that makes 95 seem super hot.

92/77 peaked here. Early cirrus canopy helped Still 89/76. Dews forecast to stay 75-78 through out the event here w/temps 95-96 which seems reasonable for this area. Amazing after 25 some years in the south this is a daily thing and for some reason it's bothered me the last couple years. It's gotta be these cool downs in between (59 for a low on Tuesday). Where I lived in the south it averaged 95/75/70's-80's dew every day for 4 or 5 months lol. Heck when I spent my teens up here nobody had an air conditioner, don't think I had one ever, even living in the Mojave as a youngster, until I moved to Houston in 82. We still have some spots with a lot of standing water out in the fields where places got really dumped on a few days ago so that may help keep actual highs down around here. And they can say what they want about the corn, that Frankencorn that got in right at the end of season is already 4-5 feet tall where its not extremely wet. Earlier corn already sprouting tassels (hated that teenage slave labor job!)

Thought this was funny from KIND discussion.... Believe the models (and thus the NBM) are overdoing the dewpoints a bit (looking at you GFS with your 80-85 dewpoints), as they often do this time of year. Corn crops are also behind, which would limit dewpoints some as well. However, mid 70s dewpoints are reasonable, so will lower the initialization to these values.

Still raining here. Gonna be a sauna when that big shiny thing comes up in a few hours.

I've often thought that points W are less influenced by flow off the gulf and more from "heat island" areas like west TX, NM and AZ. Our big heat does tend to come from the W/SW but geographically it may actually be a bit more moderated by the gulf than points west where the flow spends more time over dry hot arid areas. So guess could say it is lake enhanced by the gulf lol.

Luckily it takes a lot for this area to hit 100 compared to points west. Not quite sure why but when the heats on we tend to run 5 or so degrees cooler around here. Not like it makes that much difference if dews are in the 70's and lows in the mid 70's. I'd still like to wait for the dog days for this stuff to start.

"TWA 517, do you want to report a UFO?" Kidding. There are some hints of a trough in the gulf around that time frame on some of the models so we'll see if that blip pops back up.

Yep got nailed finally. Almost .6 in my gauge. I swear I could see daylight the whole time just off to my SE so really were on the edge. Just N of me really got hammered with some rain.

A little more hope here today with s bit of a CU field building but still looks like the boundary is still just N.

Its been even worse around here. Still barely over .25 in's over the last 3 weeks and we missed out on some of the larger totals a few weeks before that with a 5 week total of around 1.25. Latest Barry forecasts aren't showing as much relief around here as they we're 24 hr's ago. The exposed ground on my property resembles a western dry lake bed. At least no 100's forecast for the near future but day/night low to mid 90's/mid upper 70's with dews running low to mid 70's across the board aren't going to be too pleasant. August coming early maybe October will too lol.