Jackstraw

Great sat. image depicting the strong SE ridging in place. The cumulus streaks over IL/IN almost look like isobar line lol.

Didn't even get a 10th here. Soybean fields around here are crazy. Crops that are in the lowest parts of the field are full green and growing, The others are so brown and dry they're ready for harvest, not to mention they're less than a foot tall. You can see it field after field. During a wetter period the ones that are doing good would be stunted and visa versa. Corn crop is very noticeably short and stunted. My yard was wet at 5:30 this morning when I got home it was bone dry again. Tree's taking it hard too, the early turners are going straight to brown.

This is getting ridiculous. The N part of this front is falling apart as it comes through this area. This is like the 3rd one over the last 3 weeks where the precip went N and S of here.

Hoping we get something tonight. It's parched around here. Any exposed bare ground looks like a dried lake bed. No measurable precip locally for almost the entire month.

Katrina hit the east coast of Fl. also. Currently the environment is pretty hostile in the far eastern Carib (as usual), but as you move west it gets much more favorable. Karen has some really good divergence overhead currently, much more than Jerry ever had. The Euro has been doing some tricky things with Karen the last day or 2 as was posted in the hurricane season thread. There is strong model consensus of ridging to the north building in in 3-5 days, strong enough to perhaps even push Karen back to the SW. We will see where she's at and what her attitude is when and if that truly happens. We are a week away from Oct. and if I still lived on the West coast of Fl. I would really be keeping my on this one. Fantasy land guidance is showing a nice path into west Fl. if something can slip into the SW/S GOM.

You can really see the mid level vortex take off here..... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Antilles-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Lets see how the track responds. That UL ridging has been tight and strong just to his E/SE. It's expanded over the last 24 hours. It's not uncommon for weaker storms to slip under these like a mouse dashing for cover.

Sorry was tongue in cheek post, Jerry, my avatar, back from the dead lol.

Dont tease me lol.

My micro climate around here haven't recorded but a few drops of precip, less than .05 except for dew in the mornings, in almost 3 weeks.

So we have Dorian coming close then OTS, OTS progressively east as the western side of the Atl. ridging gets beaten down. That rubberband has got to snap and something's going to get caught under a robust westward building ridge at some point I would think.

Yes Kermit will be able to get to Jerry and the next system from Barbados and/or St. Thomas. logistical management on tight budgets lol.

NOAA will list re-locations as training missions sometimes. haven't had a chance to look but kermit could be heading to one of the leewards to prep scouting the next system which has a much better chance of being a threat.

All of the sat info and model info we get is basically in 2 dimensions through levels to interpret. Especially with the models we know they are resolving in 3 dimensions but the info presented at least to us, is in 2 dimensions via layers. There maybe something out there that can help us armchair guys visualize the model output in 3 dimensions but I haven't seen it. Kinda like GRlevelx? Storm specific I like the AMSU cross sections but something like that that you could "fly" through the model output. Hey look at my avatar, it's TS Jerry, I'm gonna reach

A lot of Jerry's future stems from interaction with a mid latitude trof which as was said in the 5pm discussion can be very hard to forecast this far out. While Jerry's not going to be in perfect conditions beyond 24 hours, as has been alluded to, this has a chance to be another sneaker. Looking at the current CIMMS layer maps that's just some weird stuff going on for this time of year IMO.... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

Latest SHIPS output * ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 66 70 73 73 72 69 67 65 65 66 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 66 70 73 73 72 69 67 65 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 68 72 79 80 79 78 78 80 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 15 20 18 20 21 20 13 19 21 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -4 -3 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 295 284 288 305 319 333 342 340 347 297 286 270 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 145 150 154 159 160 163 162 160 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 146 144 148 152 156 154 154 150 144 136 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 45 49 55 58 67 73 76 69 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 10 11 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 18 11 9 6 7 15 14 39 41 27 42 200 MB DIV 20 29 -10 2 19 31 19 12 31 36 66 36 45 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 1 0 1 6 -2 4 5 7 11 13 LAND (KM) 1106 1110 1074 981 907 805 468 246 278 343 487 657 823 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.0 22.5 24.1 25.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.2 52.5 53.9 55.3 58.1 61.3 64.2 66.6 68.5 69.9 70.6 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 30 37 47 39 58 71 80 60 77 48 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 23. 22. 19. 17. 15. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 49.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 48.8% 34.8% 22.4% 14.4% 26.1% 30.0% 20.0% Logistic: 35.8% 49.1% 58.3% 44.3% 10.5% 15.7% 5.3% 3.5% Bayesian: 19.2% 37.3% 38.9% 3.4% 3.2% 11.5% 12.3% 0.2% Consensus: 25.5% 45.0% 44.0% 23.4% 9.4% 17.8% 15.9% 7.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 4( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 4( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 62 66 70 73 73 72 69 67 65 65 66 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 62 65 65 64 61 59 57 57 58 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 57 57 56 53 51 49 49 50 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 47 47 46 43 41 39 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

From the Meteosat it's looking like the wave train is full steam ahead. There are several strong and a couple weaker ones lined up like a bowling ball return. We'll see how it pans out, but with the activity over equatorial Africa and the incoming Kelvin Wave it could get very very interesting. Seems #10 and the next wave models have are going to have some decent SAL to fight off so we shall watch the battle begin.

I've actually seen some Maples starting to lighten up around here. The conifers on my property are producing large cones a good 2-3 weeks ahead of time. With the cool temps lately and the looks of the tree's would've thought we were into late Sept. not early. As is usual with a departing strong tropical system ridging building in behind it tends to pump our temps. But looks to be fairly short lived with the models pointing to another cool down beyond 5-7 days. I really hope we can experience a "true" fall this year. The falls I remember 40 years ago with comfortable to sometimes warm daytime temps and cool jacket wearing nighttime temps, heralding in high school football season, just haven't materialized in my 7 years back. It's my favorite time of year. Hope we actually have one this year.

Strange but intersting mode around here today. Been on the road most of the day. I've experienced elevated thunderstorms, strong ones, but not as cellular as these. There was one from my location I literally could watch it work it's way down to the surface. I've never visibly seen that, was pretty cool.

I've never been able to tweet embed. True story

Spent about 15 years in Fl. Experienced some good ones. Some I chased some didn't have to. Elena (72 hours of hell), Andrew (West coast still a monster), Katrina (scariest cat 1/2 ever), Ivan (was prepared and actually enjoyed it) to name a few. I'm of the opinion know where you live. Canes come with the territory down there so deal with it and prepare yourself. For most of Fl. it's not that hard to evacuate 20 or 30 miles inland (if you have to go that far) if you live within 5 miles of the coast and then hunker down. If you live in Fl. and your evac plan is Georgia move back up north lol. Pinellas county (St. Pete, Clearwater, Largo area where I lived) is just a disaster waiting to happen however because there's just nowhere to go. Water on 3 sides, an average above sea level of about 15-20 feet, 4 bridges and a highway paralleling the coast north the only way out for about 1 million people to evacuate. It's been like 100 years since that area was slammed with a big dog and it will happen again. IMO that area is a powder keg during cane season.

Need to freeze frame the weather forecast for this week. Freakin awesome

Yup....

91 here 72 in Kokomo, it's coming

Yeah MI has been drowned out by the MN WI stuff bu they've been getting hammered. Had some long trainers over night.