Jackstraw

Also it's the annual battle of the AFD's. KIND has me at 4-6 with FRZA mixing in, and curiously only a WWA for technically warning criteria snow. IWX, 2 miles to my north, has me at 2-4 with no mixing issues and curiously no WWA with technically advisory criteria amounts. Baffled a bit, they both betting high? Let the winter games begin lol.

I don't dare throw out a guess this far out around here (36 hrs lol) in mid Dec. Still big chance its gonna be a slush fest. Model soundings vary but there's warm tongues floating around from 500 down to 925 depending on the model. Hate I70 App runners this early. 00Z OP runs made a pretty significant shift south except for the Canuk who thinks it's January although it's been very consistent in it's solutions run to run comparatively. I will be pleasantly surprised or normally disappointed either way. Such is winter life nowadays along the whiteknuckle I70 line. Bring on the clippers

I'm at the 6th deadly sin

Thar's one thing about living here in the hinterland of winter anxiety, getting hopes up is mea culpa. But on the flip side if it does happen it's like a one night stand with the Lawrence Welk girls in a tub of olive oil

Several reports of gusts 55-60 around here and a few 60-65. Had about a 1-2 hour period where sustained winds were never less than 30 and as high as 45 between 11 and 1 yesterday which I thought was more impressive than the gusts. Neighbor across the way lost an 800 sq. ft. unfinished room addition. The roof ended up flipping over on the main house roof and sliding off. Looked like the famous video of the roof flying off in Hawaii during hurricane Iniki lol. (Neighbors an idiot probably used staples and Elmers glue building it ) Happy Tryptophan day y'all

Flirting with ear popper pressures up around GB with 986mb right now. Don't see many buoy graphs like this outside tropical season lol...

The radar returns down here were some of the highest DBZ I've seen for a liquid/frozen event @ 60-70. I thought for sure as that moved NE into some colder air and into the waning hours an isolated area would get 3-4 in a mini blizzard lol.

Well it ain't here lol. Proverbial kitchen sink stuff, snow, ice balls, sleet, and rain all falling at the same time for the last hour.

Last 5 runs of the Euro have been pretty consistent on 4-6 inches from about 30 miles east of me all the way up through Toledo inside 72 hours, then another 3-4 with the second system. I'd lock it in except it's all alone with that forecast. Timing is going to be the secret (as it usually is around here until January). Get something coming through during the overnight our chances for snow increase 2 fold.

Euro, GFS and Canuk all have something coming through the Ohio valley around the 23rd-24th with the Euro down by the river, the Canuk just north of Chitown and the GFS running along I-70.

Thats no shit especially the last few years, been a definite have and have not's winters. But this isn't winter lol. Weather geeks love the anomalous in stats thats based on averages, always some fun lol. I never made it to 5 for this one dammit,. Was dancing around the house burning sage watching Brian Greene trying to get the the mystical and the math to align for that last half inch of ego but as usual nature dictates.

4 here at 6am geez

Nodded off for a moment. Woke up and went out in my skivvies to let the beasts out to a familiar January bone chiller and crunch under foot on 11/11. Gotta love it.

Benton Harbor-South Bend-Warsaw should be getting buried. That LES band has kinda stalled along that line for the last few hours.

Lights flickering. This stuff is stuck to everything and we do have some oaks, bradfords and some maples with quite a few leaves on them not to mention your run of the mill asian 40 foot weed trees. Other thing is we're down to 24 with a good 20 mph wind and there is still a lot of water under the snow on the streets and the grassy areas. Ground temp was about 36 this morning (yes I measured, wanted to see how quick it freezes with this arctic blast coming lol). Goes to show the insulating value of snow , which btw is falling again, give me 5 darn it!

Been out playing in it. Ran into some 2 foot drifts in the country. Stopped now about 4 inches. That LES band is tickling down towards Kokomo now, friend up around Grissom said moderate snow started back up. Need that thing to ramp up and come about 20 miles farther south so I can get 5 lol. Not disappointed for 11/11, just hope don't have to pay the piper on the back end come DJF, 4-6 inchers have been hard to come by around here the last several years.

Yep. I'm a if its gonna get cold it better snow kinda guy lol. It's been ripping good for the last hour or so. Roads are going to shit rapidly. Some nice bands overhead and to the west yet to come. Gonna hit 3 going for 5 c'mon dammit!

Started slow and late here with a switch over from white rain to about 30 minutes of graupel before changing over to a fine light snow about an hour ago. Had a pesky low level warm tongue that some of the models showed. Under a decent band now vis down to 1/4 mile, still not impressive flake size but it's ripping pretty good. Getting close to an inch of kitchen sink type stuff but this current band has started to cover the secondary roads. Hoping the returns to the west keep filling in. Be nice to hit 3 on the ground a coup if we can hit 5 lol.

Decent soundings over the Shire here from about 2 to 6 off the 16Z HRRR.....

Flash freezing mentioned in KIND's AFD right around rush hour, glad I stayed and worked from home today. Starting to get a mix here at 34 degrees.

I have to say some of these snow maps are pretty wild looking due to it being early with fairly warm lake temps. The LES streaks are everywhere...

12Z NAM talk about an I-70 special lol

KIND threw out WWA's for most counties bordering KIWX's zone. Farther south could be a crazy evening commute out of Indy (crazier than normal folks there drive like idiots, worse than ATL) with definite light rain preceding a changeover to snow by the time the rats get let out at 5.

Going to be interesting how this pans out down here. We do get some lake enhancement all the way down here at times but the setup has to be just right and sometimes can add another 2-3 inches in a perfect scenario. The 12Z 3k NAM shows this. I'd feel a lot more confident on anything over 3" down here if this were a night time system but as the timing looks right now I'll go with 3" of sticky here. If the moderate temps during the onset are a bit overdone and we could get some +SN rates of over an 1" an hour as the NAM soundings show and the eastward shifting band off of the lake stays robust I could see us getting upwards of 6. Lot's of and, if's and butt's but thats how we roll down here lol. Still cool to see this this early.