Jackstraw

Geting a little Full Metal Jacket hope, models actually trending to give us on the hot side a reach around Saturday. GFS is Gomer Pyle

Well at least we don't have to worry about this lmao...

I beginning to feel like the kid that never gets picked on either team in a scrimmage game

Got tickled by the southern edge of that plume off lake Michigan and got .75 of snow, more than Fridays storm lol.

As shitty as the models have been I'm riding the Canuk the rest of the winter......

With nothing but a possible dab the next 10 days around here on the models (except for the Canuk ), this January has the potential to be pretty much snowless here except for a couple dustings. If that pans out then I'll be looking for a Feb. early March big dog to bookend us the other 2/3rds to our average. Still learning the teleconection stuff but there were several really strong TC's in the WPAC late this year and am just curious if they just pumped extra heat into the northern latitudes and into the Pacific jet and how that influences the PV behavior. At least it doesn't look like the deep freeze is setting in over the next couple weeks. I might start to lose it if we start getting 1050-60 Canadian ridges suppressing the storm track south or east. Current pattern sucks but has a better chance for something as opposed to a deep cold snowless depre ..er..suppression.

Well we ended up with almost nada for winter precip, wasn't expecting much but more than we got. The freezing rain potential was destroyed by the high rain rates early this morning, (not complaining about that lol), we got roughly 1.25 liquid in this area. Now back to your regularly scheduled frozen mud stalagmites

Very Heavy rain at 34 right now. That Muncie sensor runs to high all the time but I noticed stations west to the border along 28 are also running 3-4 degrees higher than points N and S so that is a bit strange.

That big slug of moisture coming through central IL is riding that 32-33/35-40 gradient. HRRR, RAP and NAM are still showing .5 inch or more of ZR to the north of that temp gradient in areas, even as far south as here, over the next 6-8 hours. Hope that doesn't happen. Big trees falling on snoozers is never a good thing.

65 shutdown NW of Indy. Let the games begin

Haven't gotten anything the last few hours and I'm not complaining lol. Maybe this dry air pocket can hang on through the cold rain that's forecast. Wishful thinking

Been really dry here the last 90 minutes or so. Spitting occasional freezing drizzle/nano pingers if I could even call it that. Temps have held steady around 29 air, 27 ground. Quite surprised how long this low level dry air has held on but with no decent precip guess it's hard to saturate. Seems every return that passes over me starts producing farther to the north. I'll take it over slipping sliding mess.

Surface low seems weaker than modeled. Could perhaps delay WAA?

HRRR and RAP still bullish on fairly significant ice from N Central IL into N Western and N IN. Meso observations showing those areas have a while to go to recover above freezing. Perhaps they're onto something. Air temp here has actually dropped 3 degrees in the last 2 hours to 29 with light easterly yet dry wind. That won't bode well as this next band of heavier precip moves NE through Indy. My ground temps are still 27/28 degrees. Potential for sub freezing ground temps longer than forecast.

Just went from liquid/nano pingers to a nice burst of moderate snow. Oh the horror

It's the middle of January and we're talking 1 inch ground blizzards and nano pingers, what a pattern lol

Running 32 degrees on the roof line but 28 on the ground on the north side of my house. Even if 2m air temps slowly climb the surface may take a couple hours to catch up.

Ricky was talking about this yesterday but per meso the 925 freezing line is outrunning the 850, which actually looked like it retreated some. Think it was the NAM that was showing this yesterday and also the very dry air from the surface to a couple thousand feet. Gonna completely bust on the 1-3 inches of snow here. Looks like pinger town to ZR to cold wet muck. Just starting to get some very fine liquid/nano pingers here freezing as it lands. Going to be a weird next few hours around here.

Where can I get one those vertical shovels?

1:5 odds 65 closes between IND and ORD by midnight for a crash lol.

Ice going to be main concern here before cold rain and then arctic blast to freeze the slop in place for the next few days. Could see snow falling late this afternoon but surface level dry air up to about 1500 feet ate it like PacMan dots. Probably not going to get enough saturation for even an inch before the kitchen sink arrives. Kinda prefer it that way. Ive got a thermometer up around 10-12 feet and one at ground level. Currently 29 up high, 26 down low. 850 warm nose already this far north. Just hope some of the HiRes ice forecasts dont come to fruition.

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 -- Wet and heavier snow to fall Friday night into Saturday for most of the area -- The area remains on track to see a impactful snowfall tonight and Saturday morning. With this in mind, we will be holding on to the Winter Weather Advisory as is for this forecast package. After a quiet day in which we just see clouds thicken up, and winds increase a bit, a fairly robust of snow is expected to move in after dark, and persist into Saturday. This snow will be the result of a very strong push of moisture coming in via a 70 knot low level jet nosing up into the area. The peak snowfall rates should come after 06z tonight and last until around, or just after 12z Saturday. We are looking at potential inch/hour snow rates of a more wet and heavy snow with lower snow-liquid ratios. This snow will obviously cause issues with the roads, and could cause some power outages as the snow could weigh down power lines and snap tree limbs. The snow should then let up in intensity on Saturday, and will likely even change to a wintry mix, and then rain/drizzle for areas along and south of I-96. This happens for a couple of reasons. The first reason is the surface low will come up into the area, and bring a brief shot of warmer air. This will come in aloft first, and could bring a brief bout of some freezing rain. This should not be a problem for roads falling on top of snow. Also, the deeper moisture will peel away, and could end up as some drizzle as the dgz becomes unsaturated.

If the Canuk verifies I swear I'm laying all my Loonies on it the rest of the year. It's done the best in my area 120 hrs out this winter all the way back to Halloween. Like most, the other models have waffled around here and it has too at times. But seriously, the Canuk has been pretty on within 5 days, and especially within 3 days for us in the south this year. Maybe moving forward the spirit of Neil is gonna make it even better with a Natural Science algorithm

Home Depot's Kitchen sink plumes just went through the roof for here on the 18Z runs, a majority on the on the kitchen side.

Was out an about today. Felt like it was 70 this morning lol. I'm certainly glad we didn't get the forecast 5-6 inches of rain. Ended up with a little over 2.5. The areas in the pics normally flood like this with 3-4 in a 48 hour period. If they flooded like this with 2.5 in 48 hours this area dodged a messy bullet......