Jackstraw

I'm going to code my own model running an algorithm that inputs data from keywords from our sub forum. I bet it's clown maps would be as accurate run to run as these sooper compooters

Well said, some of us are staying in touch with our environment. But for the masses I guess Kylie Jenner is more important than whether ones garage kept Land Rover hits a tree when they are grabbing the visor to see which button to push to engage 4WD. Sorry my attitude lately surfaced lol.

Whatever that crap that was falling it along with dropping 3 degrees to below freezing very quickly it really made the roads a mess for a few hours around here. Black ice with this crap on top, and it happened fast. That stuff falling was like you described except it was all falling together this evening. Honestly one of the weirdest precips I've ever seen. Visibility got down to less than a mile for about an hour (throw in freezing fog around here).

IDOT better get the sand/salt trucks out up around here. It just got slick as shit out up and down St. RD. 28, 37, and 13. I counted 12 cars in ditches.

Every morning looks like a painting by the dark side of Bob Ross when he forgot to take his meds for a couple days. Ain't no happy little trees or bushes. Just dreary depression day after day after day.

PT Barnum model

IWX hoisted a small area WWA for black ice. I can attest it's slick as heck out there

No science here obviously lol. But I really feel like this is going to be a bookend winter with a bunch of piss in the middle. My area is below normal precip wise, liquid/frozen -30%, and above normal temp wise +10%. Vegas odds are the rubber band snaps towards the middle to latter half of Feb to early March. The overall storm track tendency hasn't really changed since Aug/Sept and is very favorable for a big dog around here if one of these can just tap some cold air. Halloween cold air tap was a surprise. The split flow ninoesque pattern that followed was a surprise. But the potential deep winter cold air tap that is lurking to the north, and you can see it there, combined with this consistent storm track could very well lay down a late winter big dog. Models are trending colder in fantasy land for once this season, not just cold but some real arctic air intrusion but without deep suppressive ridging. I just feel like something has to give this winter to make the stars align, we are way overdue. All my years living next to the ocean and dealing with the tropics in the SE taught me one thing, it only takes one big one to even the score during years of drought. Or maybe it's just me having visions of Hank Stram when I was 8 years old thinking anything is possible lol.

When GRR is optimistic times are tough

Good call. I wasn't touching this one with 10ft pole, not like I'm good at calls anyway. honestly wasn't expecting to see any fluff 5 days ago. There's been a consistent 1-2 degree temp differential between the thermometer on the roof line and the one on the ground the last 48 hours with the ground actually the warmer, complete flip flop from the last system. Thought I had it to close to the dryer vent at first lol. It's still -SN here too, about the same accumulation wise. We couldn't get a band to setup like this one for this long when it's 25 degrees out to save our butts. You know it's bad when the backside comes through and it's 50 in Nebraska lol.

We might see the moon one night lol.. Tonight Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Sunday Night Cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Monday Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 36. Tuesday Night Cloudy, with a low around 28. Wednesday A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Friday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

27 pages for this and a "Hot" tag for Alek trolling. We're all sick in the head lol.

Agree! Let's put a fork in this one and move on. The Proctor Proone model vs The Lester Flem model. With all due respect to our friends across the border you know which horse I'm riding

Been snowing at a good clip for 4-5 hours or so. Would probably have 2-3 inches if it wasn't falling into a frying pan lol. Maybe a half on the ground.

Reach around beginning at 31 degrees. We'll see if it can stay all snow. Whether it sticks who knows. Hey, it's sumpin lol.

Just took the dogs for a late/early walk. I lost them within 50 feet. It's definitely froggy out there. At least thats something outta this mess.

Nice. Rain wipes out .8 inches of snow. The NE forums got nothing on us lol

Well im not gonna bitch to much when I can do this in January lol...

I remember reading an IWX AFD earlier in the week that having such a stacked cutoff low like this in January is fairly rare, thereby cutting off any cold air intrusion from the polar jet. I'm pretty sure no matter what time of year, models tend to struggle at times with cutoff's. Maybe that's why there's been inconsistency right up to and during this event aside from slim +/- freezing level surface temps being so tight. My weenie ass is used to warm 850's nosing in but this whole system seems upside down with plenty of sub freezing air aloft but surface levels being stubborn. Seems to me this an early fall early spring type of scenario as opposed to middle of winter. Still hoping for a reach around lol

So is the Hi-Res GFS and the GEFS not the upgraded version?

IWX earlier today says it all... For Sunday through Thursday little if any precipitation is expected with seasonably mild temperatures for this time of year. Highs should be from around 35 to 40 each day with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s each night. Most noticeable will be the absence of arctic air with the continued pattern of above normal temperatures (Fort Wayne has only had 3 days the temperature has been below normal during the past nearly 5 weeks).

Long shots hit eventually no matter how many horses die

Maybe for you guys but it's done pretty well this season down here along the normal battleground RASN line.

Agreed. This pattern has resulted in personal model bias division just as much as the country lol.

Hitchcock weather around here. Visibility less than a mile, dreary drizzle. Perfect setting for a murder. Still holding out hope for a reach around couple inches tomorrow/tomorrow evening. The Canuk has been bery bery good to me this season, gonna ride that horse till she breaks. Gotta love closed stacked meandering lows in January........ .