Jackstraw

Flipped to rain, sometimes heavy rain about an hour ago with temp back up to 34. When it was snowing it was the biggest flakes of the season, half dollars. +SN on the onset then flipped to sleet/rain, melted then went back to +SN again for about an hour. Got about an inch twice lol. Just a freakin mess out there now.

Quite the WAA battle going on here. Got a quick inch flipped to light freezing drizzle/sleet now back to parachutes.

I'm on the north side of the mediocre winter climo for this sub so it's really got to be bad for me to complain. I need to pick up 20 inches to reach average this year. Wouldn't be so bad if I had a year in the last 8 that was 20 inches over but only had 2 that were at or slightly above average since I moved back. The only good thing about this trend is slowly lowering the average thereby lowering expectations. Geez, next year if I get 6 in 24 hours with a 25mph wind I'll be comparing it to 77

Euro and Canuk showing some legit arctic air setting in for a couple days late next week/weekend. If it happens and we can get a system come through to tap into it Biloxi will probably get a foot

ZZZZZ

I could piss out my back door into a 20mph 25 degree wind and it would be a top 10 event this winter lol

Yep we're running about 60% below normal with nothing looking good on the horizon. Ended up with a half inch of frozen crap and another half inch of frosting on top for this "storm" lol. Running just about 10 inches on the season and we average about 29. Need a late season big dog to snap the rubber band.

Almost .5 of midwest beach sand here. Nary a flake.

That would've been better than the eternal pingerfest I got going on lol

Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020 Areas affected...Northern Indiana into southern Michigan and far northwest Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 052307Z - 060130Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected through the evening. DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent has led to a broad area of light to moderate snow across much of the southern Great Lakes. While snowfall rates should remain in the half inch per hour range across most of the region, deep frontogenesis in the 850 to 500 mb layer will lead to some banding and localized heavier snowfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour. Composite reflectivity indicates the heaviest band may be starting to develop from Rensselaer, IN northeastward through Goshen and toward Jackson, Michigan. The heavier snow rates will be limited due to the short duration of snow, but these rates could persist for 1 to 2 hours across the aforementioned region.

Just went from garden variety pingers to full on salt shaker skin stingers, my goodness

Garden variety pinger crap here

Think IWX should be good. I'm gonna be walking the 850 like a Walenda. Like literally a few miles north or south of me could mean the difference between 1-2 of crap or 3-6. I'm used to that just not in February. I'll do a D1 call, as thats all you can do in my climo this year, 2" of every frozen type precip except ZR and pray I bust low lol. Edit: Forgot I made an earlier call of 5. What was I drinking?

After throwing by beer against the wall after the STOU, I'm calling 5 for here. If it sticks around for 72 hours I'll leave the poker table

Like IWX said we're dying down here in Mudpocolypse. Sorry for youz guys but if the Euro and Canuk can verify you can have the rest of this crap winter lol. This is the heart of clipper season and not one yet this year with this non-stop split flow crap. That's usually where I stat pad, a couple weeks of 2 inch clippers. Has that ever happened, no clippers in the Midwest? I mean we're even looking at less than 12 total hours below zero here.

We overperformed here with a non official 61 by 5 degrees (with a feels like temp of 80, I was sweating lol). We're supposed to "plummet" to 34 tonight, currently 43 then "soar" to 58 tomorrow. If we can stay sunny tomorrow I'm calling 63. Regardless took the day off to get some stuff done outside I missed because of "Winterfall".

I don't think I've ever seen this much consistent inconsistency in the models in winter over the conus in my short years following. 1 or 2 hundred miles on tracks this far out, sure. But we've been seeing 3 to 5 hundred mile to shredded nothingness this winter. I know in the tropics models always struggle with weak systems and with weak steering. There really hasn't been strong ridges and strong lows this season and hardly any deep arctic air dropping down, for a lot of reasons that have been posted, and the baroclinic zone has been very low this winter IMO . I wonder if this is causing the problem with the models across the conus. With such a consistent weak split flow across the conus, as fine a resolution as some have (and that is totally subjective) it's just not fine enough to whittle out the details and/or how much climo is influencing some of them (I'm not sure how much climo data they put weight on). Regardless, if this keeps up, I think this may be one of the worse model verification winters in a long time because damn near none of them have verified, especially in our area, for snowfall, or QPF for that matter, outside 24 hours. They're not even verifying that well in the mountains out to the W/NW where it should be close to cut and dry. The mountains in BC should have about 800 inches of snow by now lol. Just my armchair 2 cents but something is really strange this winter model wise. Maybe it will snap back late and cover some of the models butts, however, as has been posted, the long range models don't look that good. But then again 2 months ago the long range looked better than it is right now. If this pans out this may be a winter to study the complete failure IMO of the "new and improved" models across the board. I'll wait for someone smarter than me (which are many) and read the book.

I was gonna say, it was fairly consistent having me in the game the last few runs. If the Canuk jumps ship for me I'm toast lol.

Seriously?

Hoping to get down there again this fall. Been down there 3 times in the last 25 years. My paternal grandfather was born and raised in the Aguas Buenas area before going to IU to become a dentist and serving in WWII as a medical officer in the European theater. He retired back to PR the mid 70's offering free dental to the people where he grew up. I was fortunate enough to go there 25 years ago prior to his passing and meet an extended family and what an absolutely beautiful part of the Island Aguas Buenas is. True to it's name it's one of the best places I've ever traveled to. My brother and I are trying to plan a trip again this coming fall to see some of our half brothers and sisters and their family's again as we are the eldest grandchildren and life is flying by. I remember my grandfather telling me one of the biggest things he missed about the US besides his US family was snow. He said he was 18 when he experienced his first snow in Bloomington and his classmates thought he was crazy because he sat outside all night as it fell having never seen it before lol. I wish more Americans would travel there, it truly is a beautiful island and the people, the food and culture there are amazing. Sorry for off topic.

Just hit 60 here also. Grill's gonna be a challenge lol

We might get something since we're within range of the NAM and it's showing a complete whiff. May need to rename this thread Feb 4th-28th storm threat for accuracy.

The Hoosier model, best performing one this winter

Had about 1.5 hours of sun before noon today for the first time since like Xmas. Thank goodness. Went outside in my shorts to replenish my vitamin D deficiency.

As long as Chattanooga doesn't get more snow than us I'm game. I'm cautiously optimistic but that sure looks like the SE could get a paralyzing 6 incher.