Jackstraw

Fat Lady sings at 00Z

Just sitting back enjoying the L&O Valley show lol .

Thats flippin crazy. Storm Ciara was the strongest in like 10 years but that pressure is nuts.

-4 last night, already 6 below forecast low, down to 1. Snow pack helping the radiational cooling for sure.

-SN again, getting tickled. Got till midnight to collect another inch so I can verify lol.

One thing to note and I was surprised. Within 36-24 hours most of the models had a NW/SE nearly 50% +/- in total snowfall right over the extreme NW part of the county. I drove 2 miles S today and totals dropped off noticeably. From about my area NW into Tipton and SW Howard county the totals were higher just as the models forecast, especially the NAM the Canuk and the ARW. Euro totals were obviously overdone and had no bearing on my fantasy call. But I am surprised at how accurately the models forecast totals over my area. Some of them got the math right at least locally.

Well almost 20 tenths lol, ended up with 5 here so I busted low by an inch (like anyone believed my call including me ) We could've hit 6 but had a couple hours of freezing drizzle before it flipped back to -SN and whiffed on the front and any tickler from the lake. The bookshelf is full now for this season around here and we matched Halloween to keep them all in place. New shelf for any new books to come. At least this is gonna be around for a few days. Glad to see most everyone got something.

Back to -SN here. One of the caveats in KIWX afternoon discussion was misalignment of DGZ and Omega, seems to be coming to fruition. Sitting at 3 here. Gonna be selective banding and backside potential to keep me from busting. Sitting on 2 pair mother nature holding 3 of a kind, waiting on the river

Snow shut off 30 minutes ago. Don't know whats coming with the NWS radar data down. It's the 1800's lol.

As I posted that it just cut loose, heaviest snow of the season. 30+ dbz band overhead all Peruvian flake.

Definitely IMC conditions. Its Slicker Than a Witches Tit on the secondary roads (dont ask me something my grandpa always said). 1/4 mile visibility, flakes shrunk some but still SN/+SN. Estimate over 2 with compaction. I had a feeling that warm nose would underperform knock on wood. This is our last hurrah for the month in central IN, enjoy!

Haven't seen any pingers (fingers crossed). Good inch already, nickle sized Rockwell flakes. Everything's covered, including the dogs and more importantly the mud! I do live in the country so it doesn't take much for the roads. Sticking to my fantasy call lol.

Yeah it's gonna be a nail biter here lol, still moderate snow. Gonna go play

Roads had no problem covering up. Nice big sticky flakes the last 30 minutes. Ground temps right at 32, roof at 33. If we can keep this up for the next 6-7 hours and keep that warm nose south we're on our way.

Me lol!

Seldom does KIND go bullish. Upped their call for here early this morning to 3-5 to be more inline with IWX 4-7 (their graphic is still messed up). Also mentioned potential overperformer in their AFD while IWX had a few caveats for under performer in theirs. I've said it before but I swear these two offices have running bets on their borders lol. Dealing with some dry air here no precip yet but we're running 3-4 degrees below forecast. Snow reported to my north. I'm sticking with my dog call

Parents lived on Sullivans Island since 84, I lived in Mt. Pleasant for 12 years, left in 2012. Like anywhere else it's changed a lot but it's still a great area to live. Got 5 inches of snow down there in like '08, biggest snow in a century or something. Brought the entire area to a standstill literally for 2 days lol. I go down there at least once a year,. Get used to this winter we've been having because this is low country winter minus the snow lol.

00Z crazy Ukie, lock it in..

The models be sayin"...

I wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't bet on my call of 6-7. I do think there's a 50/50 chance that northern Marion county could over perform the forecast. I'm just not that sold on the warm nose with this system.

I think you're going to be as good if not better than me. The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems. Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up dog this season lol. I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday. Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm storm Jackstraw lol.

One can dream lol

I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry. I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior. Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol. 2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms. Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's. I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north. I'm going all in with the short stack this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol! Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not