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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Jackstraw replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Hell its 87-88 in KY and OH now. Thats pretty stout for the first week of April. Especially OH -
Yay my whole area is getting a tornado watch too. Was feeling left out
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Nice 10 second 65mph sustained with that globular cluster that just went through. Not one lightning strike. Started having SE coastal living flashbacks lol
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You dress up your dogs?
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Hey, I'm in that box too. Too hell with Jupiters magno rings Quantum entanglement is forecasting a big dog here. My fishing reel looks like Phyllis Diller's hair and I'm sick of messing with it.
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Oh, I caught 12 crappie so stormsa comin' lol. Just hope I'm not frying flying fish over the wee houurs of the morning
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Yeah its right along the dry line. We were getting a crazy dry line Friday in E Kansas also. That one Friday was a TX flying tumbleweed dryline, we don't see those that strong and defined up here often.
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Im goin' fishin'. If they're bitin' the storms a comin' lol.
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Part of the reason is until Friday we've had crap for even garden variety storms in the spring for the last 3 or 4 years. I mean seriously, our March-June thunderstorm season has sucked horribly. We're not used to it anymore lol.
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Starting to see a line of agitated cumulus forming from ILX towards the triple point near Omaha along the warm front. 80/65 running into 55/45. Not the best moisture feed but it's still not bad. Some pre-frontal cells trying to go in MO
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Hope he brought his helmet to work
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I respect your posts RS but the 74 Big Dog? Oh my you have my ears definitely perked sir!
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I barely had 10 inches this year. I hate you lol
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Trey over at Convective Chronicles did a nice little video about a possible trend between a super (>2years) La Nina to El Nino transition during the early Spring months and an uptick (actually more normal) in tornado outbreaks in tornado ally and the Ohio valley in his tornado forecast for this Spring. We've been in a pretty boring dry spell for even simple pop up severe weather around here the past few years. After yesterday and the outlook next week its definitely looking more interesting this year than the massive boredom the last few years around here. While long range fantasy land is showing the cold/snow hanging on in the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes there are continued signals of good quality airmass divergence and favorable storm track zones along those boundaries from the plains through the lower Great Lakes and the Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valley's. The South cant have it all all the time and I'd bet they'd like a break. JMO
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Man seems like an unusual increase in long duration tornadic systems this year so far. This is like the 3rd or 4th continually producing tornados for 24hrs or more. At least seems like it, too tired to check. Mesoscale Discussion 0424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...Middle Tennessee...northeastern Mississippi...and northwestern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 101... Valid 010613Z - 010745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms -- capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes -- continue moving eastward across the Tennessee Valley area. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of storms moving across Middle Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi at this time, with several embedded severe/rotating storms. Along with risk for wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range, a few storms appear to be either currently tornadic, or capable of producing a tornado in the near term. Two of these supercells -- one now moving into southern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi and the other crossing central Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi -- both appear to have produced tornadoes within the past 15 to 30 minutes. Given the degree of shear indicated by KGWX and KHTX WSR-88d VWPs, and mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, the environment downstream from the ongoing storms remains favorable to support a continuation of risk through the remainder of WW 101, and potentially farther east still -- which may require new/downstream WW issuance into eastern Tennessee.