moneypitmike

It there was a big storm brewing, Scooter would be posting from the DD drive-thru on his way to the airport, and you'd be saying "screw the leaves". We know this. You know this. We also know that we don't cancel winter like some.

Dryslot watching SNE crash on this one system like NNE the whole winter last year. Suck it up, cupcakes.

1-3 for a lot of the area. It will look December-y for a day or two in any case.

My rule of thumb is that if it's not yet in NAM range, it's too soon to create a thread. Not that the NAM is going to tell us much that's reliable--but until that time frame, we really are still in that main thread realm of general pattern and 'looks'. A caveat to this is that when we have a couple "looks" within a couple days of each other, splitting them out can alleviate confusion. Other than that though--just enjoy what they show in that general look.

#nomorethreads

Get better soon, Jerry!!

GFS move suggests to me that it might have been out to lunch--hopefully others become more robust. In any case, I think we should have a clearer understanding come 12z run--certainly by 00z. #nomorethreads

That sounds very 'tin-foil hat', Tip.

Box hitting the eggnog early with their pops 4 days out. Tuesday Night A chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Snow likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%

And yet there's a thread.

So when is someone starting the thread?

Congrats!

Ummmmm......couldn't you have just said "east of the mississippi river?

How much rain does ORH average prior to 12/10?

When one can't distinguish a December pattern thread from a banter thread, you know there's nothing a-brewing.

You can be such a downer.

As Bruce says, "Don't get caught on the wrong side of that line".

I just logged in to see 80 posts since my last check.....I was thinking 'oh shit--what are the early models showing'? Disappointing to see they were all about looking back at ORH snowfalls and the death of Alberta Clippers. It's tough when the pattern thread is looking at days of yore rather than the future.

I don't think the rationale is necessarily lost--it's just fun to make the joke.

I'll take Saturday if we can push it back 6 hours.....I land at BOS at 2:00pm

I was thinking of the 'two systems in a short time' situation earlier today. They so seldomly work out that way. Give me the first of the two. No Wimpy "I'll happily pay you on Tuesday if you buy me a hamburger today".

Quick--start a thread.

You're not locking in 5.5 days? Getting cautious these days.

I guess we can take comfort in that the long range accuracy has sucked wrt consistency.