I completelly agree with your general sentiment. That said, there are a not insignificant members well to the east of of main cluster. With that, I'd tend to view Tip's "correction vector" eastward.
note: not panicing--just observing.
Hopefully, the late-to-the-party shift of the GEFS is indicative of a final solution that's a little less tucked than the EC. Many more runs to figure it out.
Because it's 46* on January 2nd, cloudy and misty for how many days in a row, and the ground is muddy and brown. In short, there's nothing better to do.
There is an unbelievable number of squirrels running around. Can Jerry chime in and say what active squirrels on January 2 portend for the rest of the winter?