moneypitmike

So does the NAM.

Because it's been a huge outlier (take your pick on NAM runs) that has been ticking toward the others, it's likely wrong. While the others may (?) tick a little east, I'd expect the GFS to make larger moves west.

Here's the BOX map this morning.

When they show less snow.

Got a 78h map there, Wiz?

Are winds much of a factor in the new EC?

Can a brother get some ratios with that qpf? I was thinking the same thing.

Do you have a frame after?

In time for whom?

Cut to the chase....is it going to snow?

If this one shits the bed, I'll be ready for spring. The winter of our hearts' discontent. That was last night.

How about 7 miles east of Worcester?

Well.....there's always 00z.

Has he packed the accordian for a road trip to Brattleboro?

I think this is Wiz's first winter melt. Welcome to the club. Not just them. A whole bunch of people will. Lots of 'boy who cried wolf' scenarios.

By my arithmetic--the p/c here is going with 7-13". Of note, the POP's have lowered from earlier. Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Blustery, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Delayed is denied.

I think historic left the building about 18 hours ago. Major for many is still there though.

If Iowa Storm comes in and start talking about how global warming is causing this storm, I'm going to go out, start my car, and leave it running in the driveway.

That's what happens when you start a thread 15 days in advance.

I'm feeling that the 495 loop should do very well--but the eastern ticks can't be ignored. And, we haven't gotten to Messenger Shuffle range yet, either.

Yeah--you're sitting comfortably. I'm feeling pretty comfortable at the Pike/495, but the GFS does give me a little pause. Hopefully 12z will remove doubt.

Hopefully we'll get a nice bump west on the GEFS to increase confidence.

congrats SE Mass !!