moneypitmike
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Everything posted by moneypitmike
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Despite some runs that showed otherwise, the general theme has been for the east to be the best. So the "easily whiff' idea has alwsys been on the table. We might soon be getting to know where the western goal post might be setting up, I think the eastern goalpost will be longer in coming.
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fixed.
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Eye candy for sure. It'll be gone on 6 hours.
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What a Pit2 demolisher on the UK. One for the ages.
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Of course, one can't discount a cluster as an outlier, especially when the clusters are relatively the same size. The magnitude of whiff on the OTC cluster is very broad, much more so than the other cluster. I'm not quite sure how to interpret that, but that suggests to me that there is a pretty large SD. In other words, don't toss the OP and let's keep watching to see if we get better agreement from the ensembles in later runs.
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Actually, I think only you can picture that.
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Can you remind me of how Worcester does with BM storms? I know in GC we'd want them closer to MVY to do really well. Asking for a friend.
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Many typos?
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I don't think there's anything different with respect to the modeled verifications. My sense is it's most likely due to a mid-range runner/cutter can still alter it's path from earlier modeling by a couple hundred miles and still deliver rain (or colder rain). That same variance on a snow event can result in whiff and rain and everything in between.
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How much later?
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Lordy. lol
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Congrats, Jeff, Eric, and Lava.
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That's certainly when the GGEM is placing it. Seems the GEFS have it a little later than the op.
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I agree on the 'typically'. If one's able to look at a system that's at day 6.5 for 2 days, things are more apt to change. Selfishly in this instance I would prefer a Sunday night event so i can enjoy it from home rather than driving back from NYC.
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Significant timing difference between ICON vs. GFS vs. GGEM. Looks liek ICON is about 12 hours earlier than the GFS which is about 12 hours earlier than the GGEM.
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That's a really ballsy call.
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06 GFS back to a good snow event--probably about 12 hours slower than the 00z run. 'll be going to a matinee show in NYC on Sunday so given my druthers, Sat/Sat night end would is what I'm hoping for. Didn't realize it was SBS when we bought the tickets. Oh well--maybe that will make for light traffic.
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Bated.
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Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
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So.....all in all an average winter so far.
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Outstanding we go from rain-to-rain to snow-to rain. Meh.
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Perhaps we can reverse curse if we have a thread of "all the reasons why the Feb.3 system will be no more than a Day-10 fantasy". Every post needs to focus on things going wrong and why needles won't be threaded.
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The GEM shows the system then as well. In 2020, the EC/Canadian combo is a powerful signal.
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By 18z.
