If Iowa Storm comes in and start talking about how global warming is causing this storm, I'm going to go out, start my car, and leave it running in the driveway.
I'm feeling that the 495 loop should do very well--but the eastern ticks can't be ignored. And, we haven't gotten to Messenger Shuffle range yet, either.
Yeah--you're sitting comfortably. I'm feeling pretty comfortable at the Pike/495, but the GFS does give me a little pause. Hopefully 12z will remove doubt.