Tony Sisk

Wonder if GSP = NAM ?

Still pretty pumped at the possibility of entire southern states having snow cover. That would be awesome!

we are for sure way over due.

This would be historic. Never, in recorded history, has the entire state of South Carolina been snow covered. That also applies to Georgia. Ironically, North Carolina has been. And in "recent history. The entire state of NC was covered March 2, 1980; December 25, 2010; February 12-13, 2010

NAM seems to always be right.

how does one read this? What does it mean? Thanks!

I would not change my flights if I were you.

this would be so South Carolina! For the entire state to get snow except the mountains of SC!

ICON Suppression equals South Depression!

….and then NAM will crush us with the truth.

We need NAM to predict is a big one…the. It will happen.

1/10 was yet another bust for the Upstate SC. Will we ever get another measurable snow?

not even a teaser flake in Taylors (Greenville SC Eastside area)

It’s like watching a yo-yo…up and down, up and down.

Thanks for sharing...I agree with Chris. Still seeing 2-4" along I-85 and North in the Upstate. High elevations 4-6". Lower Gville County, 1-2"

NAM is actually saying..."If Only You Knew"

Models have become about a reliable as polls. Which tells me that the data needs to be fine tuned.

Anyone ever see a forecast like this and wonder, “what in the world”? Friday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 2am, then snow likely between 2am and 3am, then a chance of freezing rain after 3am. Low around 28. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Here we are less than 48 hours away and these maps are all over the place!

Excellent info, thank you!

2-4" is my thinking

Initially, most precipitation will fall as snow. Temps will have dropped well below freezing across the area Friday morning, and the mid/upper levels will be saturated enough that nucleation should not be an issue. So, whatever falls will fall as snow...and although a deep dry layer will be in place as precipitation begins, guidance depicts such strong isentropic ascent that it won`t take more than 1-2 hours for this layer to saturate...allowing for things to pretty quickly evolve from dry conditions, to flurries, to accumulating snow during the late morning or early afternoon. Temperatures should max out before the normal diurnal max, peaking at basically however warm it can get before precipitation begins and temps begin wet-bulbing down. This looks like it may take place as early as the 9am-12pm window, at least for the western half of the CWA, where things will ramp up sooner. The details beyond this point, however, are murkier. During the evening and overnight, WAA will continue, and some form of changeover from all-snow to wintry mix appears likely. The most recent 12z cycle of operational guidance has sped up its handling of low-level isentropic ascent, but in response to a more southward storm track, the resulting warm nose is also higher - as high as 700mb per the latest NAM - with a deeper subfreezing layer at the surface. Accordingly, calibrated sleet probabilities have increased at the expense of lower snow and freezing rain probs...somewhat reducing overall ice accumulations despite the robust warm nose. Unfortunately, there`s still a lot of room for error, and a lot of time for the forecast to change. If low-level profiles get even a tiny bit warmer, it`ll mean less sleet and more ice. If the warm nose gets stronger...less snow, more ice. If the system speeds up, QPF, which continues exhibit a lot of spread among ensembles, could change, which would alter both snow and ice totals. It looks increasingly likely, though, that the Upstate won`t escape at least a small amount of ice, and that zones as far north as I-40 will be under the gun for some sleet. Dreams of an all-snow forecast? Quashed.

Winter Storm Watch now in for the Upstate of SC Winter Storm Watch

Really curious/surprised as to why GSP NWS did not extend the Watch criteria to the Upstate of SC in the 11am update. Do you think it is coming at 4pm?

Could not have drawn it up any better