alhooks13

Just a light dusting at Kill Devil Hills. We were on the wrong side of a sharp gradient.

35.6 in Kitty Hawk, light rain and windy with gusts to 25 kts

That yellow line is not 64. It's the Wake-Johnston county border. 64 runs more or less east-west through Wake Co.

How did forecasts end up being so wrong? The flawed predictions can be traced to computer model errors and the inability of human forecasters to adequately account for them. When fronts come in from the north and west, models sometimes have a bias of drawing in cold air too quickly. Some of our biggest winter storm busts over the years have occurred when we’ve accepted model forecasts indicating temperatures would rapidly cool to near freezing with rain changing to snow. In short, we probably should have been more skeptical of the models. But we gave them considerable credence since they had done a good job with the other events this month. Notably, they nailed the Jan. 3 snow forecast the day after it was 63 degrees.

This is a thing of beauty for me. I'm on the OBX in Kitty Hawk and each run is getting better and better. I'm a long-time lurker and rarely post. I'm not a Met and not as big a hobbyist as most of you are. I'm just a lowly CPA. I've lived in NC all of my life and am 55 so I've seen a fair number of storms. My anecdotal experience is that these storms rarely pan out as modeled outside of 24-48 hrs. The models aren't perfect! You all know that and then act like it is some big surprise when the models show a shift. Then there are some on here, especially the IMBYers, that bitch and moan when the model shifts the axis of precipitation by 25 or 50 miles. In my way of thinking, that's not a big shift. A storm is hundreds of miles from here, being sampled numerous times a day and if it shifts from your backyard, you proclaim the models suck. I'm not sure we'll ever see in our lifetimes where a weather model can consistently and accurately predict the exact track, the exact precip type and exact amounts of precip. Yet it seems to me that is what some of you expect and demand. The models are Lucy and some of you are Charlie Brown. Let's take a step back from the IMBYism that is too prevalent with some posters and look at the overall bigger picture. The models were showing a week ago a significant winter event for our area, with snow generally in the central part of the state and ice in the eastern part. As of now, it seems like that is generally going to happen though it may be further east and north of what was initially shown. To me, that's a pretty big win even if the track is off 100 miles or so and the precip is 50% of what was modeled. Sorry for my rant but the attitudes and expectations of some of you are completely unreasonable in my humble opinion. I'll return to lurking now.

No snow for the NOBX (Kitty Hawk).

Hurricane Warning posted for OBX. Just got a notice on my phone. I'm in Kill Devil Hills.

Heard some thunder in Kitty Hawk this morning. Probably around 10:30 to 11:00.

Unless something dramatically changes, I'm staying put in Kill Devil Hills.

I was in Charlotte for Hugo. Went to bed thinking I'd get up the next morning to see what it was doing. By 4am, had high winds and rain. Shortly after daybreak, 30-40 mph winds and clearing skies. I was amazed with the rapidity it moved through the area.

Ugh. I'm waiting for cooler, less humid conditions.