snowlover2

Also mentioned possibly a derecho. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon to evening. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal flow regime across the northern states. A convective cluster is ongoing across north-central SD aided by warm/moist advection around 700 mb along a pronounced baroclinic zone. 00Z CAM guidance had a decent handle on this activity earlier this morning and are consistent with a decaying trend through late morning as advection shifts east amid pronounced MLCIN as sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding. There is a low confidence scenario that a strong enough cold pool is becoming established with this early-day cluster such that total decay does not occur. If this occurs, robust boundary-layer heating downstream may be sufficient for an increasing threat during the afternoon of strong to severe wind gusts. This could still yield a scattered to widespread damaging wind scenario, albeit in an earlier time frame than progged by guidance. The more probable scenario is for an extremely unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) to become established to from southeast SD through central/southern WI as the elevated mixed-layer overspreads surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 70s. A surface cyclone over central SD should track towards the Twin Cities through early evening. Strong low-level convergence near/northeast of this cyclone along the warm front should sustain surface-based storm development across central into east-central MN. Once initiation occurs, intense supercells will develop rapidly, with an attendant threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes amid 50-60 kt effective shear and 0-3 km SRH > 300 m2/s2. The very warm/moist thermodynamic profiles will also support generation of strong cold pools which should eventually yield a bowing, forward-propagating MCS across northern WI into parts of northern Lower and Upper MI. Strength of the vertical shear suggests the potential for intense bowing segments capable of yielding a derecho with significant severe wind gusts

Moderate risk now for parts of MN/WI with a 15% tornado area.

Still the one from yesterday. Seems odd they didn't update it today.

Latest from CPC has a high excessive heat area now for the mid MS Valley area.

Westward expansion of the extreme heat areas on todays outlook.

GFS/Euro both showing DP's getting into the 80's across a decent chunk of the sub which would certainly help verify this.

Hit 90 for a 5th straight day before the storms hit.

Dayton airport recorded a 63mph wind with a microburst a little more than an hour ago.

Hit 90 for the fourth straight day here.

Well it is almost independence day.

Second line back in SE MN/W WI with a couple warnings including a tornado warning west of Albert Lea MN

Slight risk added to parts of the north/west sub for tomorrow.

Heat and humidity look to continue for the first few days and then there are signs of some relief around the end of week 1/beginning of week 2 time frame.

Enhanced issued for E MN/ central WI.

Slight risk added to a good chunk of IL.

Watch now canceled for most of IN.

5% tornado probs added up to southern IL on new day 1.

12z Euro appears to have a strong looking MCS next Saturday evening/night developing across southern MI to E IA and dropping south across much of IL/IN/OH.

New tornado warning just east of Indy.

Should have clarified. Like 2 weeks ago there was early/midday rain and then late day storms which suddenly strong rotation and TDS. But yes hopefully won't be as bad.

Almost feels like 2 weeks ago all over again.

Maintained on newest outlook. Latest disco concerned for supercells and tornadoes later.