snowlover2

ILN has a very detailed disco in the new afd. They say they wouldn’t be surprised to see an upgrade from the slight risk. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term period is going to start off on an active note, with several forecast items that warrant a thorough discussion and will certainly require a close eye as we progress into the beginning of the workweek. The first item of concern will be associated with the expectation for ongoing convection Tuesday morning across at least a portion of the local area through daybreak. The region will be positioned on the lee side of a broad mid/upper level ridge axis initially positioned across the mid-Mississippi River Valley Monday night. A weak midlevel impulse/disturbance will round the peak of the aforementioned ridge axis Monday night, with a surface warm front becoming established from NW to SE across the heart of the Ohio Valley. With the arrival of increasing forcing for ascent and some low level convergence becoming established with the aforementioned frontal boundary generation/frontogenesis, anticipate that a corridor of NW-to-SE convection will develop initially N/W of the ILN FA before working its way S/E Monday night into Tuesday morning. The instby at this point will be mainly elevated in nature, suggesting that any severe threat would remain rather minimal, even with a non-zero potential for some small hail as ML instby increases through the night. The main concern will be the potential for some heavy rain/training convection, owing to a nearly-parallel orientation of the low level boundary with the deeper-layer flow. Additionally, moisture transport into the region will intensify by late Monday night with the arrival/development of a 30-35+kt H8/H9 jet nosing northeast through the area. The juxtaposition and parallel orientation between the low level convergent axis and mean deeper-layer flow, and ingestion of increasingly moist BL air, all suggest the potential for training storms to develop/become established -- with early indications favoring a corridor from west- central into central Ohio. This training activity and potential for heavy rain/flooding may linger into Tuesday morning before the S/W energy pulls east and forcing begins to wane by late morning into the afternoon hours, with a trend toward drier/clearer conditions possible by mid/late afternoon. By later Tuesday afternoon into the evening, the setup/environment expected to develop into the region becomes even a bit more concerning, for several reasons. 1. The mainly elevated instby working into the area Monday night into early Tuesday will become surface-based by Tuesday afternoon into the evening with the influx/advection of moisture-rich BL air with dewpoints reaching into the low/mid 60s. This will occur coincident with cooling in the midlevel, yielding a corresponding steepening of midlevel lapse rates. All of this adds up to a development of SB/ML CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 j/kg+, depending on your model of choice. Suffice to say that with ample instby, which will be rooted in the BL, large hail and translation of strong winds aloft may become increasingly efficient/possible with any stronger cores that develop by late Tuesday afternoon into the evening/overnight. 2. Fcst sounding analysis shows long/slightly-curved hodographs amidst quasi-zonal/WNW deep-layer flow with some /albeit not overly strong/ low level directional/speed shear developing into the central part of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening/night. This would tend to suggest, especially in an environment characterized by the aforementioned instby, that any stronger core/storm that develops may be able to become supercellular in nature, especially on the edge of the nosing LLJ moving back into the region by this time. This being said, the forcing to initiate such development maybe somewhat lacking late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, lending itself to at least some uncertainty into how widespread re- initiation will be /if any/ before the arrival of the stronger S/W forcing and height falls late Tuesday evening from the west. While confidence on development of storms late Tuesday afternoon into the evening in the open warm sector is rather meager at this point, should a storm be able to develop, it/they would be doing so in an environment conducive to supercellular formation, of which could produce any and all severe hazards. This is why the setup will be monitored so closely, even before the arrival of the main forcing/most widespread convection late Tuesday evening into the overnight. While open warm sector storm initiation during the daytime period on Tuesday remains somewhat in question, despite the increasingly favorable environment for intense storms should development occur, confidence remains much higher in widespread activity moving through the region by late Tuesday evening into the overnight period. This activity may initially erupt well to the N/W of the ILN FA even by early Tuesday evening, courtesy of the aforementioned arrival of height falls/forcing as the S/W progresses east into a very thermodynamically- and kinematically-favorable environment. Any activity later in the evening into the overnight period may be exhibit more of a cluster/bowing structure, one that potentially becomes somewhat cold-pool driven the further into the nighttime we progress. With this in mind, the late evening/overnight activity may certainly pose a strong/damaging wind threat above all else, but again all hazards may come into play at one time or another from late Tuesday afternoon through the nighttime period. This is certainly a situation and an environment that will be monitored and analyzed closely, both from a temporal and spatial perspective. But based on overall pattern setup/recognition, one which shows support from CIGs analogs, as well as overall expectation for favorable thermodynamic evolution, we may be dealing with several rounds of strong to severe storms from Tuesday afternoon/evening through the overnight period. And this is a separate concern from the heavy rain/flooding risk that was mentioned for Monday night/Tuesday morning. Will highlight all of these risks/threats in the HWO, but would not be surprised at all to see a convective category upgrade (from SLGHT) for Tuesday/night should current data trends continue.

I think it has to do with our Governor closing everything down really quick more than anything else. He's wasn't messing around with this.

Jonesboro/Brookland tornado.

Moderate again maintained.

And even if you don't have a PDS watch you can still get violent tornadoes. Only need to go back to the memorial day tornado outbreak as evidence of that.

Still moderate with possible upgrade at 20z to high.

Moderate maintained. Mention of possible high risk later.

SPC just updated the day 1 outlook to expand the slight risk farther south in IL/IN and to add a hatched hail area.

New day 2

Slight risk expanded east into IN on new day 1.

15% tornado area too.

Very rare update to the current day 3.

New day 2 sees big expansion east of the marginal risk through most of the OV for hail.

Ohio now has a stay at home order officially. Doesn't actually change anything that we've been doing for the last week and a half but it goes into effect tomorrow night at midnight through April 6.

10% tornado area expanded across the S IA area otherwise no other real changes on new day 1.

Same thing announced for Ohio. Delivery, carryout and drive thru still available.

Same for Ohio.

0z NAM and 3k NAM trying to keep hopes alive for one last event for C IL to SW OH.

Just like Dayton on Memorial day but we obviously were much luckier on the death total.

18z NAM I believe.

Can't blame you. Not sure the last time the "hot" tag appeared on this thread.