DFWWeather

The 12z ECMWF ensemble 51 member mean average snowfall for DFW is 8 inches. Remarkable! Its temps are significantly colder than the NWS office. It has a low of 20 for Friday morning and 18 for Saturday morning. All day Thursday it keeps temps between 30 and 33.

The 12z GFS and Candian are upping totals for DFW. Surprisingly, the 12z NAM has increased its totals too. Candian/RGEM going for record breaking snows at DFW 12 to 14 inches. Wonder what the 12z ECMWF will have?

The NWS has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning. Going with general 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals 6 to 9 inches. Problem is their forecast temps I feel are much too warm for anything but rain or snow melting on impact. They have a low overnight Thursday into Friday of 34 at DFW. Most models I'm looking at are generally between 30 and 32 during this period.

18z ECMWF and ensembles are again being consistent on a 4 to 8 inch snowfall across the Metroplex.

The 0z deterministic ECMWF cut its snow in half for DFW, however, the 6z did not disappoint, nor do a majority of the ensemble members of both runs. The 6z NAM is also not disappointing. I have noticed, now that we are getting in range of the hi-res models, that much of the snow in the Big Country into West Texas is much less. The GFS is significantly warmer than the NAM, ECMWF, CMC, and their ensembles. Even though it has accumulating snow (much less), but should really only be a cold rain given its temps. I see a reinforcing surge at H85 of cold air coming into the state tomorrow and again behind the departing system. I think the 6z ECMWF temps look reasonable through Saturday.

The GFS in general is warm compared to all the other models. The 18z GFS still gives the Metroplex a decent snow event. I would wait and look at the 0z GFS before saying their is a trend. Much more ensemble support with it. Though there was a drier note on the 12z GFS ensemble spread compared to its 0z. NAM is usually a good model for winter storms. The ECMWF has been very consistent with this storm.

I certainly agree with you. This will be one for the record books should the forecast hold. Widespread 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts for the Metroplex. The event will rival the February 2010 event (though this looks colder), January 1964, and February 1978. Low temps will crater to the upper teens on Saturday with that much snowfall. This will disrupt travel not only Thursday/Friday, but likely into the weekend as well.

The 12z NAM is showing a high of 22°F for Monday and a low of 11°F for DFW for Tuesday morning. Pretty Arctic I'd say, which is the source region of the airmass.

The ECMWF suite this morning has trended a bit drier even for DFW, but it is still outputting enough QPF that it would cause major travel impacts if it were to verify. It should be noted that the Canadian is also showing QPF for Sunday night into Monday for North Texas. Much of it on both models would fall as freezing rain and/or sleet, not as much as snow given how shallow this airmass will be. The GFS still has the same trailing wave but it is further north and east with it and has been all over the place with both the cold and the wave compared to the other two models with very little run to run consistency. The ECMWF is bringing the front into DFW Saturday afternoon. Significantly earlier than the rest of the models. Be interesting to see what the NAM says about that. It is conceivable in North Texas, including DFW Metro, that temps will be below freezing 36 to 48 hours. The big concern here is it is looking more likely temps will fall into the single digits with this even into the Metroplex itself with some of the outlying areas falling to near 0°F.

You should see the ECMWF (including control and most of its ensembles), much more bullish than the GFS on wintry precipitation for DFW and has been for several runs. The Canadian not so much. Temperatures have markedly decreased this morning on all models for this Arctic air intrusion. DFW has a reasonable shot of falling below 10°F, especially if we get snow/ice. The Oz ECMWF deterministic this morning is down to 5°F for DFW, which is impressive for that model this far out. It'll be interesting to see how the NAM handles this.

Nice write up summary about the summer of 2023 for DFW. September 2023 came out to be the second hottest on record for DFW behind 2019* as the hottest. The avearage temp was 84.6°F. We did not fall below 60°F. There are only about 12 other years I think where we didn't fall below 60°F in September. Nearly all of the following winters were warm winters. So at this point, I am growing skeptical on a below normal winter like a lot of forecasters are suggesting just because of the El Niño. Even if you look at the top ten hottest September's on record, I believe there is only like one year where the following winter was cold. So odds are not very good that the winter of 2023-24 will be colder than normal, despite it being an El Niño. *2019-2020 as we can all remember was also a warm winter with no snow or ice.

I'm not sure the HRRR has been the model of choice through this event. I believe the NAM and Canadian (both its hi-res, operational Synoptic, and ensembles) have been outperforming nearly all of them. The concern here is the depth of the warm air aloft will deepen as the warm air advection process ramps up as the upper low approaches. This will almost gurantee the next round precip will be much less sleet and more freezing rain. 1/2 inch of freezing rain is much worse than sleet. Combine that on top of the sleet and it will be total ice skating rink with wet water on top of ice before it freezes. What a mess! At least with the cobblestone ice, you did have "some" traction. So, I am not surprised the warning was upgraded at all. The December 2013 was worse farther off to the northwest of the Metroplex due to its longevity in that region (what 5-6 days vs the 2 1/2 in the Metro?) and it was all sleet, with very little freezing rain. I probably should have worded it may potentially surpass the those two events if the forecast holds.

The Ice Storm Warning is truly a rare issuance in this region. This generally is not issued unless ice accretion totals are expected to be 1/2 inch or greater, which is severe icing. If forecast holds this, combined with this 1/2 inch sleet already on ground, is turning out to be the worst ice storm this century for the western part of the Metroplex. I doubt very seriously temperatures will move far enough above freezing to improve road conditions, especially in this area, until late Thursday or possibly into early Friday. This surpases the December 2013 and February 2003 events.

National Weather Service office in Fort Worth is issuing Winter Storm Watch this afternon for pretty much all of North Texas, including the DFW Metroplex.

The front came through Lubbock and the temperature fell 30 degrees in under an hour. The overnight low tonight there is forecast to be 9°F and they are already at 7°F, which was not forecast. This front is busting forecast and model numbers and you could easily take 5 degrees off of those. This front means business!