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LP08

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Everything posted by LP08

  1. LP08
    It’s wetter but we fight over head temps.
  2. LP08
    3k looks better with the earlier stuff, at least to my weenie eyes
  3. LP08
    Like the early frames on the NAM. Better tilt out west will hopefully bring the WAA a little heavier.
  4. LP08
    Yeah that was my “ugh” reaction. Shouldn’t be posting the raw output
  5. LP08
    Doug Kammerer just posted the raw ZR from the euro and is talking about power outages…ugh
  6. LP08
    After snow and sleet…ukie almost gets us with a nice squall line…lol. 998 over deep creek
  7. LP08
    AiGFS was colder than 18z at least at 700, fwiw
  8. LP08
    Still holding on 95 and west at 18z sunday
  9. LP08
    Hope @MN Transplant doesn’t have your cell…
  10. LP08
    I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good. That is a much better thump.
  11. LP08
    Earlier runs brought the souther Baja low quicker, providing support for moisture transport (I’m not saying this right but whatevs) Every subsequent run has been holding it back, keeping the long wave trough more positive. System turns into two events.
  12. LP08
    They are so far removed from the upper level support they kind of peter out as it moves east.
  13. LP08
    Near the city I meant to add.
  14. LP08
    It’s only like 0.3-0.4 qpf pre flip. That won’t do it
  15. LP08
    I hate the GFS.
  16. LP08
    Kuchera is like 10-15 S to N from EZF up
  17. LP08
    Sleet line still in NC at 60
  18. LP08
    The longwave trough is slightly more positively tilted, may affect moisture transport down the line here.
  19. LP08
    I mean it makes sense if the H5 is right? More positviely tilted trough and flatter flow will not get the moisture transport we need. Ok done with Nam nitpicking hah
  20. LP08
    Maybe I'm way off but I don't think we want flatter out front? This thing undoubtly will be west of us. We should want amp and quicker phasing to send a much better swath of overrunning before we lose thermals. The two part, although slightly colder to start, robs moisture. Similar to what the Euro showed at 12z.
  21. LP08
    need the Baja low to come further east. When it drags its disconnected so the over running loses its punch and it turns into two parts.
  22. LP08
    Delaying the phase and flatter out front is causing some cut back on qpf for the thump.
  23. LP08
    A DT woof?
  24. LP08
    Keeps the primary way way south...like SC compared to WVA. Thats a lonely island.
  25. LP08
    I mean, 18z sunday and the mix line is still south of EZF...
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