LP08

Ahhh yes. The 10 year anniversary of the only winter I didn't live in the Mid Atlantic. I'll never forget lurking on Eastern from Alabama and crying myself to sleep.

I thought they were very reasonable last year. My wife is an administrator in the county and it definitely is not the Fairfax of old when it comes to delays and closings.

Trough too positively tilted...and holy blocking.

12k looks like a pretty decent snow hit for NW va and md...not much makes it over the blue ridge.

Definitely....I know @losetoa6 stayed around freezing most of the day yesterday. I could see those areas and out towards Winchester struggling to get above freezing until Tuesday. If the precip is there...could be a pretty nice event for the favored areas. 1-3 inches of snow to sleet and zr for almost all of Monday.

Nam doesn’t seem to have much interest but the icon looks nice, especially for the northern folks.

This will do...

It's a very similar progression to the UKIE. The ukie was just wetter when we are cold enough.

Yeah. meh-tacular. Not sure what to root for to be honest anymore.

Euro quicker down south, and a little more strung out through 120.

GEFS is almost unanimous about sending the WAA north of us. Let's revisit this panel at verification. I count 2 "hits"

UKMET looks to be an all snow event based on my limited maps. Here are the best panels.

Certainly better early on. This weekends storm is stronger compressing heights some.

To me, its the best look we have had so far (not saying much) but with the war relaxing and a -NAO/50/50 combo, its a good setup. It's like this year is the exact opposite so far compared to last year. We got teased in the 11-15 day of better patterns only for it to default back to the background for that winter. It seems this year, we are having the good periods continue to keep us cool with chances while the troubling pattern keeps getting pushed back. I am happy that I haven't had to look at the weeklies at all this year! What a disaster they are/were. Learned a lot of their reliability last year (almost zero).

I don't know much but if we keep getting these looks, it will eventually work out. It's fun to toggle back to the runs from a few days ago for days 11-15 and then now when we are at day ten.

Precip and temps at that time. Looks like the best of the bunch so far.

Definitely more NAO and AO ridging on the EPS. Keep from too much interaction with the TPV and this is a great look.

For sure. But like you said a nice winter storm. This looks nice up top, however.

Yeah, its a little close to comfort. It interacts with the TPV in Canada more this run.

Stronger ridging into the NAO space due to a stronger 50/50 than 0z.

Euro looks like a go for next week.

I know you hate snow maps from Ensembles but this period is really popping up. With the advertised look up top, this could get fun, quickly. Again, some of the best "clustering" at this lead so far.

If this exact map doesn’t happen, I’m blaming you for coming back to Arlington.

Gfs with a bump as well. Mostly confined to two bands...one NW of the cities and one SE

Euro maintains the Dusting to up to 3 for the favored areas. Better than 0z