LP08

Gfs again looks better at 5H for next Sunday...but surface temps are terrible.

I had money on the Chiefs but goodness gracious. If ever he had a team to just run it out, this was the one.

Why does Kyle Shannahan throw on the 2nd and 5 up 20-17? He’s a great coach but outsmarts himself in the biggest games.

It’s there if you select an elevated location. See below.

You can see it on soundings too.

OP at range but the EURO keeps progressing the ridge in the pacific east. Helps to keep the trough from dumping west. Maybe the ensembles can tease this as well.

Honestly I think the only thing that the ensembles have "missed" on in the longer range is being too robust at times with the -EPO. They have been pretty good on the Atlantic and artic. The broad trough we were seeing that would have worked out here was mostly due to spikes in the EPO region. It seems to me the GEFS has a tendency to spike an EPO ridge in the longer range which is causing its horrendous "cold bias" when in reality it just never materializes and we get no real displaced cold. I am not saying that the GEFS doesn't have a real cold bias I just think some of it is overblown due to the tendency to spike the EPO in the longer ranges.

#GirlDad

I really ruffled some feathers with my semi sarcastic GFS post....sorry!

I’m sure this time will be totally different

We lost power during the January storm last year and we still couldn't keep our 4 year old in the house. We went out after dusk as the last burst was coming through and walked around the neighborhood with every light off. It was spooky, quiet, and awesome.

Euro gets precip into the area on Friday from the coastal....mixy in a few spots.

OP at range and disclaimers aside, but run through HR 270-360 on the GFS. That is how 2014 would have looked had we not been south of boundary....IE: painful

Yeah that makes sense. I was reading the NE forum and they were mentioning it and had not looked at much today. It's amazing how the SS SW as basically been reduced to nothing of what it once was. Skip that front runner out east and allow the NS to dig into the trough and who knows.

CMC does the same with some nice 38 degree rain Saturday night.

Not that it means much on a 10 day OP but for the sake of content I am seeing the same issues with this week as next weekend...Where is the cold air? The vortex over Alaska is still planted there. The main "shot" of cold air dumps west before east but look North of us. Above normal anomalies. Maybe the -NAO will help more in this case but for now it looks more of the same. The EPS from 0z did show some ridging into Alaska that helped bully that vortex out of there, so that's more promising than that op run. (Doesn't help that the 850 anoms look like they are giving us the middle finger, lol)

Too much ICON talk but this was the panel with the "Slightly East and Weaker Comment". I know I am pretty much dead at my location but folks west and north certainly are in the game.

ICON with a step back form 6z. Slightly east and weaker.

Tough

Better heights out in front, less dig to the SW on the Euro. We will see how much improvement, if any, it will make.

Euro through 72 has some light snow into SW VA from the NS. Quite different than 0z that had a more substation SS SW and storm off the SE coast at the same time.

Our German friend keeps hope alive for this weekend. Also shows a dusting to an inch on Thursday, favored west.

I just going to forget this Euro run...not much to like.

Safe to say that the euro won’t be close. Southern SW gets left behind and squashed.

Yeah it’s all pretty messy. We don’t do messy well.