Weenie me all you want and hopefully someone smarter will tell me I'm wrong, but i'd argue, at the end of the RGEM run that NS wave coming in out west is coming at an advantageous angle to maybe not kick but to actually help.
Lets try and get the H5 cutoff from diving into the extreme SE and keep it moving across NC at least. I would feel more confident then. Lots of vorts flying around through Canada helping supress that feature on various models.
We got caught up the last storm cause it was so cold coming into it. WAA events are notorious for us to under perform for ratios. @MN Transplantbasically had 10-1 for the snow push in the morning.
Coastals are better but again, unless we are deformed to death I’m never assuming anything more than 12-1 at most.