Tom

DCA +1.1 NYC +1.5 BOS +1.5 ORD +1.7 ATL +1.1 IAH +0.8 DEN +0.5 PHX +0.7 SEA -1.1

I don't post much here enjoy reading and learning, i do however post for my facebook friends and put out my winter forecast this is what I posted on November 30th I think I am nailing it so for, this is for NJ Well it's out putting my neck on the line again, feel good about this even if most if not all are saying the opposite. WINTER 2024-2025 Positives for a colder than normal winter: 1. Neutral Enso (most are still calling for La Nina I’m not) 2. October snow in Siberia 3. Snow in Southern Canada in November Neutral conditions for a colder winter: 1. NAO and AO 2. Indian Ocean Temps Negatives for colder winter 1. QBO 2. Recent history 3. PDO 4. Solar If you have any questions about the abbreviation above just ask, or google. It’s so much to type how each affect the pattern. Now onto the forecast some will say wish cast. I am going to break the months into 3rds so 1-10, 11-20 and 21 to end of month December: 1st – 10th Below normal temperatures statewide not noticeable precip some light snow or rain around 7th – keep in mind normal high temps are in upper 40’s not cold enough for snow. 11th – 20th First part will be below normal temps chance of coastal storm 13th-15th give or take a day. Likely rain southern half of NJ and Snow Northwest NJ higher elevations. 21st -31st Near to slightly above normal temps to start (bah humbug, might be cool upper 30’s low 40’s for Christmas not cold enough to support white Christmas. Towards New Years colder than normal temps set in maybe white New Years Eve. Total snow for Dec. Northern NJ 3”-6” Southern NJ 1”-3” Mountains of NW NJ 4”-8” Temps overall -1.5°-2° January: 1st – 10th Temps much below normal starting just after the new year, will have to factor in any storm that comes up the coast its’ track. It can be very cold for 5 days and storm tracks 100 miles to west will bring rain followed by very cold temps again. So all I can say is when temps fluctuate that is the track storms like to take. I can see 1 maybe 2 storms back to back to start January. 11th -20th Temps overall below normal with the first half being closer to normal which is near 40° in southern NJ and upper 30’s in northern. The second half of period will be normal to slightly below normal temps. Back into the freezer, temps much below normal with another 1-3 chances of snow with one being a larger storm Overall snowfall for January Northern NJ 12-18+ Southern NJ 10-16+ Mountains 16-24+ Temps -1° -2° The Plus is if that larger storm does come up coast can add 6-12 to all those totals. February: 1st – 10th Below normal temps stormy normal temps are in upper 30’s to near 40 for highs, this in my opinion will make or break the winter season, if we can get it just cold enough for snow will end winter with above average snowfall and colder temps which is something we haven’t seen in years, if it’s 35 and rains well let’s not think about that lol. 11th -20th Normal temps upper 30’s-low 40’s calm tranquil boring weather 21st -28th Nothing exciting a storm depending on track rain or snow, temps normal to slightly above normal Temps +0.5°-+1° Snowfall huge bust potential Northern 8-12 Southern 4-8 Mountains 10-16 So overall for NJ Temps -1­--1.5° Snowfall Northern 25-30 Southern 20-25 Mountains 50-60 (not counting what fell in November) Me versus the weather world, they call for a mild La Nina I say bullshit. Some will ask if this is a wish cast how can anyone breakdown 10 day periods months in advance. You may be right, however what I do is look at current patterns GLOBALLY not just locally many different year had some of the same patterns they are called analogs. No two years are a perfect match however they can give and do give clues. The larger indices I mentioned at the start are patterns that take many months to change so very confident about them. Obviously the near term is more likely to be accurate however I do like my January thoughts, February is iffy as far as confidence goes. I have a thick skin so come March (might be snowy lol) come back see how I did. If you have any questions about anything I said just ask, I like talking weather

DCA -5.7 NYC -4.5 BOS -2.9 ORD -4.1 ATL -5.9 IAH -1.1 DEN -0.1 PHX + 4.2 SEA +4.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.1 -0.8 +0.5 +1.7 +1.9 +2.1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 26.2" 38.1" 42.4" 37.6" 42.3" 102.6" 57.7" 6.4" 83.4"

sitting here, drinking my beer listening to Christmas music......I so want to go huge off the charts for snowfall maybe wish casting, we are due it is time for wishes to come true, every generation needs that one storm...I have been lucky 78, 83, 96 and 2010 I say Jan 2025 says hold my beer. Done with my hype back tomorrow with my calls, for now just cheers.

DCA: + 4.6 NYC: + 4.8 BOS: + 4.7 ORD: + 3.1 ATL: + 3.4 IAH: + 3.7 DEN: + 1.2 PHX: + 0.5 SEA: -0.6

DCA: + 1.3 NYC: + 1.4 BOS: +1.4 ORD: + 0.6 ATL: + 0.7 IAH: + 0.9 DEN: + 1.4 PHX: + 1.3 SEA: + 0.6

DCA: +0.4NYC: +0.5BOS: +0.6ORD: +0.8ATL: -0.1IAH: +0.6DEN: +0.7PHX: +1.1SEA: +0.6

DCA: +2.9NYC: +2.8BOS: +2.4ORD: +1.9ATL: +2.2IAH: +2.2DEN: +2.5PHX: +1.9SEA: +0.6

DCA: +2.6NYC: +2.8BOS: +2.6ORD: +3.1ATL: +2.8IAH: +2.4DEN: +2.3PHX: +1.9SEA: +0.8

DCA: +1.2 101NYC: +1.3 98BOS: +1.3 98ORD: +0.9 99ATL: +1.3 102IAH: +1.8 106DEN: +1.7 98PHX: +1.7 119SEA: +0.6 97

DCA: +1.5NYC: +1.7BOS: +1.7ORD: +1.8ATL: +1.6IAH: +0.9DEN: +07PHX: +0.7SEA: +0.6

DCA: +1.6NYC: +1.8BOS: +1.8ORD: +2.1ATL: +1.2IAH: +1.5DEN: +0.9PHX: +0.6SEA: +0.2

DCA: +2.8NYC: +3.1BOS: +3.2ORD: +3.5ATL: +1.8IAH: +1.9DEN: +1.6PHX: +0.9SEA: +0.8

DCA: +0.6 NYC: +0.8 BOS: +1.1 ORD: +1.2 ATL: -0.6 IAH: -0.3 DEN: +0.7 PHX: +0.6 SEA: +1.1